MAVS NEWS:

[loki]

1 I think Lonzo being highly desired in CHI is a ship that has sailed. They wanted to dump him at the deadline, and couldn't find a taker who would offer anything they like. (They leaked that they were getting offers of a FRP. My personal speculation at the time, backed up by rumors reported later, was that the best offers they got entailed them taking a junky matching contract with future years, and they would only get a junk first-rounder). So I believe the re-signing was purely to try to get some value later, rather than let his deal expire, by signing him and then having him show something (hopefully) desirable the rest of the year. Only 1 year, so in case they couldn't trade him they wouldn't be stuck for long. 

My point being, from all appearances CHI's preferred plan has been to trade him. BUT instead of showing something good down the stretch, he got hurt AGAIN and didn't play at all.

On that basis, I believe he can be had fairly easily, cheaply, just so long as CHI feels they might be getting something useful. And I think in a Martin-Hardy package, they would see something they like, enough to pull the trigger.

2 He's a risk. It's why he should be available, and be cheap. Not sure he'll have much interest and it might be a waste of a trade for Mavs.

HOWEVER - for me, as proposed (and maybe to include DP), the Mavs do end up with a side benefit that would mitigate that potential downside, which would be that such a trade also offers needed help for Mavs in both payroll and roster space. And it could be a win for CHI too.

3 Gafford is a luxury only if (a) both Lively and AD remain healthy all season, and (b) AD is open to playing a major role at C. I don't have any reason to think either of those is true, or will become true.

4 I like the idea of Black, and would welcome him if available. But his shot is a BIG issue. ORL doesn't want Gafford anyhow, so that's not the trade. And I'm skeptical ATL would want to pay to add Gafford as they already have a C.

5 More relevant than that, I don't expect ORL would have the least interest in trading AB for a junk pick in a shallow draft, and am really skeptical they would have interest in trading him at all.

My view on AD is that he's being paid $54M next year to play where the coach tells him. I wouldn't make a decision based on his personal desire to play the 4. I don't think he'll actually cause a problem if he's asked to play primarily at center.

If AD and/or Lively can't stay healthy, the Mavs are toast in the playoffs even if they have Gafford. He's a great insurance policy in the regular season, but I think he'll continue to be a weak spot defensively when a team targets him over the course of a series.

I do think Gafford makes quite a bit of sense for Atlanta with an older Capela entering free agency. He'd be an incredible fit with Young, and they already have a lottery pick. His next contract may be their big concern. But if they can re-sign him there would be plenty of minutes available for both he and Okongwu.

Black's shot is definitely an issue, but that's why you could potentially land him. He doesn't have to be the exact target though. I'd just like to see them trying to develop someone. There may not be a lot of avenues for the Mavs to land a legit point guard in the next few years if the current trade market is any indication. They won't have great (if any) picks and will have limited funds in free agency.