Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[Chicagojk]

I know you are all dying to discuss Lakers, so lets give it a try I think they are a very interesting team to discuss team building and it will take masterful GM-ing to build a contender. I think it is about being a contender in next five years while trying to be as competitive as possible in the next one. A very difficult task.

It starts with Luka. My guess is he will sign a 3 year extension (third year a player option). I think this gives Lakers a two year window to build a contender. Afterwards Luka will be expiring and will imho ask out if the team future is not bright (or walk in three seasons, which is what Lakers probably don't want to see happen). This is very important related to their current second best player. He had a bad season according to his standards, but I expect he will come back determined to prove how much he really is worth.

LeBron will start to decline at some point and I assume he will no longer be a max worthy player anymore. He already showed signs of decline. Luka got all the flak in the playoffs, part of it deservedly, but LeBrons impact was actually far worse both in regular season as well as in the playoffs. Luka net rating in playoffs was +12, LeBron was -21. In the regular season Luka was +12 and LeBron was -5. He has a PO option for next season which is fine. However, what do the Lakers do if he wants to drop that PO and sign another 1+1 max deal? That would effectively lock Lakers into LeBron for two more seasons, basically blocking all realistic long-term team building paths for next season too. Looking long term, the best outcome for Lakers would actually be to trade LeBron, but I don't see this as realistic. Second best option is to let him play this next season (I don't expect any discount) and then he either retires or resigns at a much lower number. Everything else I am affraid will effectively prevent Lakers from building a contender around Luka and has a high chance for them ending without him in a couple of years. A very tough spot for the Lakers, because, can you really say NO to him, if he wants another 1+1 max deal? It will take guts to do that.

Before moving to other players and teambuilding, let me tackle the agent perspective. Assuming Lakers-Mavs deal was really made in quiet, it means two power agents (Rich Paul - Anthony Davis and Bill Duffy - Luka) were screwed big time. Rich Paul ended up fine, as his client is in excellent position after the lottery. Rich Paul - with LeBron slowly closing retirement, how much of his focus will still be on the Lakers? Duffy has a lot to prove. Luka got screwed for big money and I think there is a lot of pressure on him. Luka is a very loyal person, but I could see other power agents seeing an opportunity to convince him they can do better than Duffy. I think he will rarely be more pressured to put his star client into a good position very soon.

We all know about the Lakers center issue, but the big question is actually, who will be the Robin to Luka after LeBron is not capable of being that anymore? You can't build around Luka and LeBron long term, as it will result in a team with Luka, a bunch of role players and no assets in a season or two. This greatly impacts the moves in the offseason. Three options:
- that guy is Reaves. Easiest option, but of course with a lot of question marks
- Lakers currently have max cap space in 2026. Problem is, FA class in that year is very bad. JJJ from Memphis is arguably best player available. If he of course makes it there, as teams rarely let players enter FA nowadays.
- the third one is trading for one in next two seasons. Lakers assets are limited, which is why I think Reaves will only be traded if "a Robin" is coming to Lakers.

Lakers only have one FRP to trade this summer and only one SRP, which is #55 in this draft, so more or less worthless. Situation gets better in 2026, as they have 3 FRP to trade then (2026, 2031 and 2033). 3 FRP and max cap space could be a package for a Robin. Hachimura is likely worth a FRP in a right situation, Knecht has some value. DFS is likely also worth a FRP, but I don't see them trading him, unless they are trading for a star. All in all, very limited resources. They have also Vincent and Kleber expiring deals, which don't have any player value - just salary fillers for a trade to a non-contender.

Lakers are some 5 mil below first apron. Unless they shed some serious money, MLE and SnT are not available for them this summer. However, this could be a path to explore. Dumping someone like Kleber for a pick swap would give them the possibility for a full MLE and SnT. While I think the most realistic way forward for them is being a first apron team for next season, I could see this as an option if the right pieces are available.

The obvious most pressing need in the offseason is the starting center. I think Reaves is off the table for the center. I see three possibilities:
- The Mark Williams package for a good center with high upside that is still on the rookie deal. So 2031 pick, Knecht and pick swaps. Duren, Kessler, Lively and perhaps Clingan fit the description. Unlikely to happen
- second option is offering same package and expirings in a trade for a more established center. Often mentioned Claxton or Poeltl fit the description. Based on all the other team needs and limited assets, I would be reluctant to choose this path.
- stop gap solution that is not worth a FRP for the Lakers, Knecht and pick swap at most. Guys like Ayton, Gafford, Mitchell Robinson, Rob Williams or even Vucevic fit the description. They all have serious warts but are still a center upgrade and would leave Lakers with a lot of flexibility to cover other areas of needs. Somehow, this group seems most likely to me.
- sign a FA for tax MLE as there is simply nothing better available due to all limitations. Lakers can offer starting position and lots of minutes, so someone might take a discount for that if he doesn't get good money elsewhere. Weak options though, as guys like Capella and Looney would be best options. I would understand the move, but it would be considered as extremely underwhelming by media.
- dark horse dream targets would be Turner and JJJ. Turner is a free agent and a lot of handling would be needed to get it done in a SnT, if he would even consider leaving Indy, which I find unlikely. JJJ will be expiring and he might let Memphis know he is not willing to resign with them. JJJ is not a center, but could perhaps hold the position until LeBron leaves and than becomes the full time Robin. He is a guy Lakers would put Reaves on the table for. Dreaming, but who knows - a lot of players want to play for Lakers.

Second highest position of need is a 3-D wing that could guard point of attack. Most likely this will be covered either with tax MLE or in some trade without significant assets. Marcus Smart or Thybulle could be interesting trade targets. Neither is worth a FRP (perhaps there is some center-Thybulle combination with Portland that would be worth the pick). Bruce Brown, Javonte Green or Tate could be interesting FA options.

I am really looking forward which of many of the tough decisions Lakers will take this summer and which will be moved to the next one. They need excellent GM-ing for me to hope see Luka compete for title(s).

Nice post.  I agree, it is going to really take a expert hand to make them a contender while Lebron is around and also post Lebron. Very difficult task.    They are LAL though and they will get more options than most teams.

I think Luka has a monster season next year.   This year he was hurt most of it, not in the best shape, the emotions of a big trade, early out in the playoffs, some media criticism, and now even some/a lot of Dallas fans are starting to talk about the future rather than the past.  So, I expect a great Luka season.  

They will find an upgrade at center this offseason.  There are a lot out there.   The key is to get one that fits the best without giving up your remaining assets.   I think Ayton is a real interesting option.  If you are an Ayton fan, you could talk yourself into the reasons why PHX and Portland did not work out.   Ayton is not an alpha.  I think going to a team where he sees the team has  clear Alpha (and won't put him down) would be the best spot for him.  Who knows though.  There are times you watch Ayton and you think "there is the guy who should be there every night".  Then next game he is a completely different player.  It will be interesting to see what the 31 pick and Knecht could retrieve.  Maybe lost some value.  Knecht is an older rookie who the coach had no trust in during the playoffs.  That 31 pick is a long way off.  

I find it unlikely they are a champion in the next 2 years (lets call this the Lebron window).  Lebron will slow down and as you show maybe it has happened gradually.  What he does is still amazing.  It is just really hard to ask him to carry such a big load.  Especially in a playoff run.   

Post Lebron is even trickier.  Luka will be watching how they manage the Lebron exit too.   Even in his advanced age, finding a guy that does what Lebron does on the court is really, really tough.    It will open up flexibility for LAL and maybe they make magic happen, but it is really, reallly tricky.   

When you have Luka (and a still relevant Lebron) you have a chance against anyone.  But the West is so deep and so tough, I don't know if I can see the Lakers being a top 2-3 contender in the west over the next few years (this could change if Nico joins another team .    Luka in Dallas was positioned for a nice 4-5 window to compete against the OKC juggernaut and the other west upstarts, but he was stabbed in his back.    While in Dallas, I believe he had a clear window until Kyrie aged out and that sort of matched his potential prime.   Now his upcoming prime is filled with some/a lot of hope but also a lot of uncertainity.