05-05-2025, 03:12 PM
Here is the portion of the latest mock draft from the Athletic about this draft class:
What does that mean for the draft? First and foremost, this number is expected to be whittled down substantially by May 28, the deadline for players with remaining collegiate eligibility to withdraw from the draft. Many of the players on the early entry list are seen as strong bets to return to school because they are slated to make seven figures in NIL dollars. If the choice is that you have guaranteed money on the table from a college or you’re on the borderline of getting a guaranteed deal from the NBA versus a two-way contract (which would only pay approximately $600,000 next season), most players and their representatives are going to take the guaranteed money. But an intriguing game of chicken has also now developed in which agents and players are trying to figure out if so many guys are going to pull out of the draft that it is worthwhile to enter this year, because this would be their best chance to be selected.
That’s where the process stands at this point, and unsurprisingly, it has decimated the depth of this class in a big way. NBA teams with selections in the 40s are quite worried as to whether those picks will have much value. Even teams in the late 20s and 30s have serious questions as to whether those picks will deliver commensurate value with what a normal selection in that range will bring.
This draft was not seen as all that loaded to begin with. Teams have real questions about whether this draft will bring average value starting from about No. 3 on. There are areas of the draft where the talent levels off for most scouts and executives (some believe the middle of the lottery is a good sweet spot, others see the late teens as a solid area to derive value). The top two are the only slots of this draft where teams have a particular amount of excitement.
Indeed, that’s why the draft lottery will be so important. Teams like the Utah Jazz could go from building their organization over the next decade around Cooper Flagg, a player seen as a genuine franchise-changer, to someone like Tre Johnson at No. 5, a good player with significant upside but with many more questions, if they fall out of the top two. There might not be a day that shapes the future of the NBA for the rest of 2025 more than May 12, when the lottery gods smile upon one team that can select Flagg.
What does that mean for the draft? First and foremost, this number is expected to be whittled down substantially by May 28, the deadline for players with remaining collegiate eligibility to withdraw from the draft. Many of the players on the early entry list are seen as strong bets to return to school because they are slated to make seven figures in NIL dollars. If the choice is that you have guaranteed money on the table from a college or you’re on the borderline of getting a guaranteed deal from the NBA versus a two-way contract (which would only pay approximately $600,000 next season), most players and their representatives are going to take the guaranteed money. But an intriguing game of chicken has also now developed in which agents and players are trying to figure out if so many guys are going to pull out of the draft that it is worthwhile to enter this year, because this would be their best chance to be selected.
That’s where the process stands at this point, and unsurprisingly, it has decimated the depth of this class in a big way. NBA teams with selections in the 40s are quite worried as to whether those picks will have much value. Even teams in the late 20s and 30s have serious questions as to whether those picks will deliver commensurate value with what a normal selection in that range will bring.
This draft was not seen as all that loaded to begin with. Teams have real questions about whether this draft will bring average value starting from about No. 3 on. There are areas of the draft where the talent levels off for most scouts and executives (some believe the middle of the lottery is a good sweet spot, others see the late teens as a solid area to derive value). The top two are the only slots of this draft where teams have a particular amount of excitement.
Indeed, that’s why the draft lottery will be so important. Teams like the Utah Jazz could go from building their organization over the next decade around Cooper Flagg, a player seen as a genuine franchise-changer, to someone like Tre Johnson at No. 5, a good player with significant upside but with many more questions, if they fall out of the top two. There might not be a day that shapes the future of the NBA for the rest of 2025 more than May 12, when the lottery gods smile upon one team that can select Flagg.
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