03-04-2025, 06:58 PM
(03-04-2025, 04:55 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Completely agree on Flagg. I think the harder question is what if we get #4? What about #10 or 11? Someone at Lively's level (if you got that lucky again) isn't something to give away lightly.
I agree on the fact that other lottery picks get harder to gauge.
Right now they would be in lottery slot 13, with 20 games to go. That's not much opportunity to change position. They are definitely not going to get to 9th or better, and they trail the teams sitting 10-11-12 (PHX, ATL, POR) right now by ~ 4 games. I'm figuring they land at no better than 11, and probably 12-13.
As for whether that's a place to get a player where you keep the pick, I have no clue. I'd guess yes, pick 13 in a good draft could offer good value, but it's the specific player that is there or not that would determine the answer. Mavs over the years have had limited success with picks outside the top 10 (with Lively being a fortunate exception), so there's that fact regarding value to consider.
One other relevant factor. I have mentioned that landing pick 1 creates issues with their finances (making a KD deal subject to doing things that seem very unlikely, and cost prohibitive), but there is a SIGNIFICANT salary diff between pick 1 and 13, from about $14M to about $5M. When you are dealing with 2nd Apron issues, a diff of $9M is going to change your landscape. Maybe they can just get Flagg at 13?!?!