MAVS NEWS:

[Smitty]

   

Looking through my proposed 14-game absence of Davis, Gafford, and Lively. It's hard to find any easy win. I think the Mavs will be favored in 5 of them. Let's assume that's how many they win, putting their record at 33-35, before a possible return of the Mavs Big's. I think the Mavs can finish 10-4 or 9-5 from there. That puts them at 42 or 43 wins.

The 10th seed in the West last year had 46 wins. The current 9 and 10 seed, Kings and Warriors, are both on pace for 42 wins. The Kings have gotten worse and the Warriors possibly better, post-TDL. Then you have the Suns lurking at 11, on pace for 40 wins, but a true wildcard, with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the NBA. The Spurs at 12 would have to win 61% (19-12) of their games to reach 42.

Even if the Mavs make the play-in, they will likely have to win two games to even earn the chance to face the 1 seed Thunder. It is becoming more and more difficult to stay positive, but it would be really intriguing to see how a healthy Mavs roster matches up against the best in the West.

Two weeks in the NBA is a looonnggg time. If the Mavs (-9.5) can beat the [14-43] Hornets tonight, they will have gone 4-2 since this post. Maybe they only win one more in the next 8 and my original prediction is accurate.... That's no fun though! With new information, we can change our opinions.

With LAL and GSW playing some of their best basketball, I can see them climbing up in the standings. I'm going to make a prediction that the Lakers finish as the 2 seed and the Warriors get the coveted 6 seed.

What does that mean for the Mavs. It means that the Mavs have to catch one of Clippers or Timberwolves to capture the 7/8 spot. After tonight, it's very possible that the Mavs and Timberwolves have identical records. (Mavs beat CHA & Lakers beat MIN). Meaning they're both within a game of LAC.

I'm now less worried about dropping out of the play-in all together. The Suns have imploded and have the hardest SOS remaining. The Spurs lost Wemby. The Kings traded away Fox and have the 2nd toughest SOS remaining. Again, two weeks is a lonnnggg time in the NBA. So, my focus is on the Mavs staying out of 9/10, giving them a chance to land the 7-seed in a one game playoff, or at worst, two chances to get into the tournament. With the recent reports on the Bigs and their likelihood of making a return relatively soon, I believe it's possible for the Mavs to stay out of 9/10 and capture that 7/8 spot.

SOS:
PHX #1 (.558)
SAC #2 (.557)
LAC #5 (.538)
DAL #19 (.494)
GSW #20 (.493)
MIN #29 (.438)



I would love to see this be the final seeding and playoff bracket:

1 OKC vs 8 MIN

4 DEN vs 5 HOU



3 MEM vs 6 GSW

2 LAL vs 7 DAL