'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[mvossman]

I wonder if the Boston game-flow might be instructive as to what to expect from rotations going forward.  The assumption has been that we'd start Gafford, AD, PJ, Klay and Irving.  I'm not so sure.  I've not been in love with the idea of Klay at the two.  And, as many have noted, that lineup is hurting for creation.  AD has to play some center for now as we don't know when Lively will return or what his conditioning will be like.  Here is what I saw last night.


Against Boston we saw at least two of Irving, Exum and SD on the floor at all times.  What was that stat last year about how great Exum the starter was versus how great Exum the sub was?  Continuing to do this when everyone is healthy helps with the creation issue, but heavy minutes for Exum/SD creates a real minutes crunch for your wings.  But, if you don't play Exum/SD heavy minutes then someone from among your wings (probably Naji or Christie) has to take on more creation responsibilities.  That is good in theory, but we've seen teams successfully take the ball out of Kyrie's hands.  My guess is either Exum or SD (maybe both) will get more minutes going forward than many of us anticipate.  I suspect this will be addressed this summer as both Exum and SD are FA's.    

Last night Gafford played almost 34 minutes and platooned at Center with OMax (we actually survived the OMax minutes pretty well BTW).  Gafford averages 22 minutes and OMax probably won't see the light of day when AD and PJ are back.  I think we may see AD as the starter at center getting 22-26 minutes there with Gafford getting the rest.  AD would get some minutes at PF each half as Kidd needs to see how that looks.  That makes more sense to me than starting Gafford and pushing everyone down a spot.  You can grab the AD at the 4 minutes when PJ sits.  This position may be difficult to manage if we ever see a day when Lively, Gafford and AD are all available at the same time.  All three deserve PT, but pushing more of AD's minutes to the 4 impacts our style of play and creates a real minutes crunch down the roster.  

The way we played our 3 and 4 positions was somewhat interchangeable last night.  Klay and Edwards were kind of a tandem against Boston except Edwards didn't play in the fourth.  Naji and Christie were kind of a tandem except they ate up all of the fourth quarter minutes that Edwards didn't get (and closed together instead of Klay).  When PJ is back, the 14 minutes Edwards got will go to him.  You've got to find another 14-16 minutes for him AND some minutes for AD.  Klay, Christie and Naji played 28, 30 and 28 minutes respectively against Boston.  PJ needs to get another 14-16 minutes from these guys as does AD.  Naji averages 24 and Klay averages 27.  Christie averaged 25 in LA, but that is misleading.  He was well over 30 the last 25 games as a starter.  So, something has to give to get PJ to 28-30 minutes and fill out AD's non-center minutes.  Oh wait, we haven't even mentioned Caleb Martin.     

If/when everyone is healthy, we have 3 centers in AD, Gafford and Lively.  We have five wings in PJ, Christie, Naji, Klay and Martin plus some of the AD minutes.  And, you have Kyrie, Exum and SD as creators.  You can argue that all 11 deserve roles.  Exum and SD are the weak links, but bring a skill that is missing elsewhere on the roster.  It would really help of some of our wings were really good at creating...not just on a random Thursday against New Orleans.  I mean in the playoffs.  Exum and SD are both FA's this summer and we have a draft pick that might net us someone here.  We have EB rights on Exum and could use the NTMLE on SD assuming we want him and assuming it costs more than a minimum to keep him.

If you want to start looking ahead, we will likely go above the first apron.  We are only $3mm under the first apron for 12 players if you assume Kyrie stays at his $43.9mm PO and just adds years.  We still have to account for Exum, SD (or their replacements) and a possible draft pick or at least another minimum contract if the pick is traded.  Depending on what they do, they could be pretty tight against the second apron.  

The implications of operating over the first apron this summer are:  1. No incoming S&T's, 2. You only have the NTMLE, 3. You can't use our existing TPE's and 4. Trades can only bring back 100% of the outgoing salary or less.  Its that last one that will largely dictate what we can/can't do to try to consolidate some of our excess into more ball handling.  BTW, Gafford and Martin get you to $20mm.  Martin and Hardy get you to $15mm.  I wonder if part of the Martin deal was to get a tradeable contract for the summer.  Of course, maybe we have a strong playoff run and decide to bring everyone back.  One possible option for shot creation in the draft would be to grab the PG at Alabama.  That way Irving would be united (not reunited) with Labaron (note the spelling)

I agree with all of this, but if you are right about two creators on the floor that means we are going to be relying heavily on two vet min signings, one of which has a terrible injury history and disappeared in the playoffs last year.  It has me really confused about the Grimes/Caleb trade.  You would think getting a creator would be a higher priority than swapping 3&D players, especially after getting Max in the AD trade.