Trade & FA 2024-25:

[SleepingHero]

The ability to match matters most when a player is max-worthy, or close to it. But with an MLE player like him, what do you do if some team offers him way more than you feel he's worth? Do you match and end up with a bad, cap-clogging contract? And what he THINKS he is worth will tend to factor into the picture too. So an accurate player evaluation is huge. (But it also helps if few teams will have cap room for over-MLE offers.)

To me, Grimes is a lot like Josh Green was. Sometimes, he looks like he can be a good player. Other times, he spares it up and it feels like his ceiling is "limited minutes backup." In theory, you want to keep him no matter what because you need talent, but it's going to be real easy to end up with a bad contract you regret.

I know it's been a couple of days but I finally have the chance to properly respond. 

I think the ability to match matters most when a team is just trying to retain the player, regardless whether or not they are max-worthy. We saw that with Portland regarding Thybulle, who no matter how you look at it, did not need to retain, but wanted to because they didn't want to lose him for nothing. And that's even with the Mavs overpaying. 

Likewise, even if some team decided they wanted to throw Grimes an above market value contract, that choice in and of itself is risky as heck given the limitations teams have in roster construction now. A 5mil overpay for a player could mean the difference between being under or over an Apron. For that alone I find it unlikely for a team to try and money-whip Grimes. 

And even if they did, I don't see a world where the Mavs don't match. Because Grimes has shown to be one of our best rotation players. You compare him to Josh Green which I think is a massive undersell given that Grimes has already shown to be a better scorer than Green ever was. Grimes has 4 20+pt games in 30 games with the Mavs while Green only had 9 in 223 with the Mavs. Defensively they are both great defenders but Grimes is definitely been the better on-ball pest. Others have already said it but in 2-3 years, I think Grimes is the prime replacement for Klay down the road and him on an MLE (or even above) contract is more than worth it.