Trade & FA 2024-25:

[Mavs2021]

For me, it's two different conversations. The first is the one you're having, about the cost/benefit analysis of Zion's talent, price, the likelihood he'll be healthy, whatever. All that. I guess I'm with you there in that I think he might still represent opportunity for someone to land a big talent more cheaply than usual. It would be risky, but enticing. 

But the other conversation is: assuming the best case scenario in conversation 1, would Zion and Luka be a fit? I say no, because he's not a screen setter, really, not a rim runner, really, and has basically proven that he's not a 5, which is unfortunate, because that makes him maybe the hardest type of 4 to build around in the sport right now. He can't shoot from outside. In fact, he has very little off-ball utility at all. He's useful with the ball in his hands, attacking downhill. He doesn't fit into most teams' plans the same way Julius Randle doesn't. You'd have to build around him, not add him to a system that's already working, and I feel like he and Luka is one of the clunkiest fits there could possibly be. Just my opinion.

As President of the Randle fan club, I´d dispute that he´s a poor fit. Also he just got traded for KAT, partly cause he´s a huge talent and partly cause KAT is making 60M a year, which kind of makes two of my points (possible re-trade value of Zion and good contract in comparison to future contracts). Also Wolves are already back up to tied 6th, despite DDV playing like crap, so much like the Gobert trade people might have been a bit premature to write them off. 

As for Zion has proven what he is. That´s also easily disputed, which obviously hurts my case big time: he has played a ridiculously low 160 games in five years. No way that is enough to judge the ceiling or the ability to adapt for a young player. If we can get him to play 55-60 games for each of the next two seasons some team would easily give you the same re-trade value (of two 1sts), as he´d still only be 26. 

Of course if he does not, you basically have to waive him, at which point the biggest problem will be that it´s unlikely to create enough capspace to outright sign the 2nd star. That obviously would largely depend on how well you massage your other cap, e.g. how much will it cost to re-sign PJ Washington and Lively.

If I was a team sitting on a lot of picks like Utah or some shitty East team, I would not hesitate to try this. For the Mavs I get that the risks are much bigger.
Though the last risky one turned out better than anyone (me included) could have expected with Kyrie. 

Maybe one of the reasons is that Nico is a better judge of character than Cuban was with Odom, Rondo or Porzingis. I somewhat doubt that Odom would have slipped the home sickness and cocaine addiction past Nico in an evaluation. So that would at least give some more confidence, if Nico approved a Zion trade. Or he´d nix it, cause Zion comes from the Darko school of hating basketball, only that he does not love Orange Juice like Darko, but French Fries instead.