'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[KillerLeft]

9 is my bet. Based on the 2 Kidd playoff appearances, 9 was pretty clearly the ideal rotation. I keep saying 9-10 with the caveat that there will be times when Maxi plays over Gafford or Dinwiddie. Which takes me back to the position flexibility and versatility of the roster. Players being able to slide up or down depending on who's on the court.

The Kleber thing is so interesting to me. 

In a sense, I agree with Gump. I think Kidd prefers to play with a bigger center for most, if not all of the game. It obviously has much more to do with offense than defense, however, because time is starting to tell quite clearly that Gafford is detrimental to the defense - they can't even play the scheme they want when he's in there. Instead, I think it's about running the floor in offensive transition, which Gafford does almost as well as Lively (when Gafford is playing well) and rolling hard off of screens, which they also both do quite well. They're also both demonstrating that they were instructed to develop as inside scorers during the off-season when the opposition switches mismatches onto them. Kleber doesn't do ANY of that particularly well, so I get it. 

But, he's far superior to Gafford, defensively, and especially when he's the 5. In fact, while I agree with Gump that Kidd is hoping Kleber can get a lot of regular season burn as the backup 4 (and he surely has, to this point), I think it's pretty clear that he's struggling, especially on offense, and I don't think that's about how he's moving, which is better to my eye than at any point last season. Instead, I think there's correlation between playing him mostly at the 4 and the amount of wide, wide open shots he's getting. Catch and shoot is really his only utility on offense, and his 1950's style set shot has always been slow. It's a completely different beast when he's matched up with slower players. The ball finds him in much more timely ways when the opposing defense gets into rotation if there was a big on him to begin with. 

Also, it's worth noting that he (Kleber) hasn't been used as a screener, even in pick and pop, since long before Carlisle left. I'd have to check, but maybe the bubble season was the last time that was used significantly? I think this is a Luka preference more than a Carlisle or Kidd preference, which would go a long way to explaining why Porzingis never fit here. 

So, idk...it's just interesting to me. I think the best thing for Kleber and for the defense is for him to play the bulk of his minutes at the backup 5, but with what the team is trying to accomplish (Gafford being more offense than defense actually helps the bench, which has trouble scoring at times), the NEED he could potentially fill is the backup 4. He's not really durable enough (and maybe not even good enough, at this point) to justify the team trying to find a way to combine those roles totally, so what we've seen is what Kidd has chosen for him to try first this season. 

The way it's working...I have very little faith that Marshall won't eventually take that role from him in a way to keep him (Marshall) on the floor while simultaneously finding enough minutes for Grimes AND Dinwiddie (who has literally been closing games at the 3, OVER Thompson, in Marshall's absence). There's no reason to believe Marshall can't guard most 4's, and in fact, I think that might be his ideal defensive position against many teams. Kleber is usually at a physical disadvantage at the 4 that doesn't exist when he's at the 5. It's great to have him as a help side defender, but having two slow guys out there in rotation is brutal at times. Plus, the benefit to the offense with Marshall, literally able to run point from the 4, would be immeasurable, and we've already seen proof of this during this short season. What I'm hoping is that Kidd is smart enough to realize there will be times after that point that playing Kleber at the 5 will be the right choice, despite coming at the expense of Gafford's minutes some nights.