'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[mvossman]

Some of what I write here won't be popular, and some of it will be wrong, obviously. Conversation and debate are welcome, as always. Here's how I see the team, about about 15 games into the season, and we can argue this stuff here until everything shakes out, eventually. 

For starters, it's abundantly clear where the extended, 10-man rotation is, currently, despite some minor details still being up in the air. 

At center, Lively and Gafford are platooning, as we expected. It looks (to me) that Lively is headed towards becoming the starter and never looking back, but I know there are some who don't like that idea and I want to avoid getting derailed on that topic. For now, they're both playing, with Lively playing more minutes and closing, and one of them is almost always on the floor.

At the 4, PJ Washington is playing the bulk of the minutes, with Kleber backing him up. I was wrong about how Kleber would be used, so far. 

From there, pinning down positions gets kind of sketchy, because there's a lot of mix-and-matching going on and players assume different positions/roles, depending on who they're playing with. For example, Luka is PG on offense 100% of the time he's on the floor, and sometimes, he plays WITH Marshall. When Marshall is on the floor WITHOUT Luka, he has frequently played the 1 on offense, but he almost never plays the 1 on defense. But, here's how their thinking seems to me, so far:

Luka/Marshall (similar sizes, similar type of players they defend, both initiating offense)
Thompson/Grimes (both movement shooters, not just spot-up, both being asked to defend difficult matchups)
Kyrie/either Hardy or Dinwiddie (all playing PG a little in Luka's absence, but none as much as Marshall, and all being asked to create on a secondary basis). 

Now, I understand that the three lines above might seem screwy to some, and of course, there's some overlap in most of those cases, so it's not so black and white, but that's what I think they're going for, so far. That means the extended 10-man rotation looks like this (try not to get short-circuited by positional inconsistencies):

Lively/Gafford
PJW/Kleber
Luka/Marshall
Thompson/Grimes
Kyrie/either Hardy or Dinwiddie (they're essentially duking it out to be Kyrie's backup)

I'm sure I've already created some disagreement by this point, but keep reading, anyway. 

The problem is that, regardless of what anyone thinks, there won't be 10 guys in the playoff rotation. We can debate that if people are interested, but it's just not something that happens, really. Players play more when the games matter, and the higher minute totals lead to less confusion, more synergy, better rhythm and just an overall higher quality of on-court play. So, how do we get from that 10 down to 9, or even 8? That's the part that's interesting, at least to me. 

Here's where I'd start, personally:

We KNOW Luka and Kyrie are both going to play as many minutes as they can. The team is built around them, after all. We also know that neither is a world beater on defense, especially carrying the offensive loads they do. So...

The Mavs currently have exactly five defenders I believe are far better than average in the NBA, and they are all two-way players, to some extent, so they're playable. In no particular order, they are Lively, Kleber, Marshall, Grimes and Washington. My contention is that the best version of this team will have all five of those guys in the shortened rotation.

Now, if we keep going with that thought, adding those five to Luka/Kyrie, we're already at 7, total. The 8th would unquestionably be Klay Thompson, which is fine, because while I wouldn't put him in that "plus defenders" group, he's probably at the very top of the list of everyone else on the roster when it comes to defense. He's not going to shut anyone down in the playoffs like DJJ did, but he's also not going to get picked on in a world where at least one of Luka/Kyrie is on the floor, and he's probably going to be one of the more sound defenders in terms of reading/doing the right thing by the time the playoffs get here. So, that's 8...

Number 9 is Gafford, who is probably the biggest defensive liability on the team, at least against teams with shooters in their front courts, and probably just behind Luka and Kyrie when it comes to the "switch target" approach teams. That's not a huge deal, because he brings a ton to the table with his pick and roll play on offense, his bully scoring inside and his rebounding (on offense, at least - his defensive rebounding ain't all that). When he's playing energetically and running the floor at full speed, he's a problem for most teams, and I think he's heading towards his ideal role as backup center, playing slightly fewer minutes than he has been so that he can go top speed all the time. 

Now we're at 9, and the conversation could end there, only there are tons of fans who really want that second creator on the floor at all times. I've been in that camp before, but I'm not there right now. I just can't find a way to do it that doesn't screw the defense, because Kidd is showing us clearly that the guy on that list (of 9) he's least comfortable with is Grimes (so far). 

If Marshall can't be that "2nd creator" (I think he can), then you have to go to either Dinwiddie or Hardy (both have been given chances, so far, indicating this is very much an "in progress" evaluation when it comes to the bench offense). No problem, right? That's why they're here - for depth. Only...that spot would cancel out either Grimes or Kleber, and I'm pretty worried about that. 

Side note: I don't want to get into a Christian Wood style conversation here, where one side accuses the other of suggesting a player should "just be given a role." Grimes has to earn his place, not just be awarded it. I'm simply saying that out of the entire roster, there are two players who can move their feet well enough to navigate screens and guard the perimeter. One is the idealized version of Grimes we're all hoping for, and that we see signs of life from recently, and the other is Exum, who is injured for so long I haven't really factored him into my thinking (yet). Washington and Marshall can do this some, but not in any sort of "replace DJJ" sort of way, and Thompson is clearly not up to that, despite being a little better on defense than his extreme detractors were scared he'd be. 

So, this "Naji Marshall: bench offensive initiator" thing kind of needs to work, from my POV, because adding Hardy, Dinwiddie or the incoming trade-target ball-handler some fans already want would pretty clearly come at the expense of Grimes' spot, imho. Maybe Kleber, which brings me to my next and likely most unpopular take.

I actually think that if healthy (again, huge, enormous "if"), Kleber is more important to this team than Gafford, and in an 8-man rotation, not a 9-man, I'd not commit to playing Gafford every night. I love the good things you'd have to give up without Gafford out there, but I need the good things Kleber does (when healthy and playing well, and he's off to a great start, movement wise) even more. Lively and Kleber are the best big defenders on this team, and I don't think it's particularly close. Gafford doesn't suck on defense, but his slow feet can be and commonly are exploited by good ball movement. He's just not able to keep up with defensive rotations like those other two. I would also say that while I believe in what I wrote for this paragraph, I don't feel as strongly about this part as I do about the Grimes part. 

All that before we even get to Dante Exum. Not sure what to expect if/when he comes back, but in theory, he can do some of what Grimes does and some of what they're trying to decide whether Marshall, Hardy or Dinwiddie will do. There's a world in which he is the answer to all prayers, but I'm not holding my breath because the injury-caused downtime is long, and he was so scared to shoot last year they couldn't even play him in the playoffs. Maybe that would've changed this season, but missing this much time lessens the chances of that, in my estimation. Still, we'll see. 

So, this is what's interesting to me. Can Kleber stay healthy long enough to matter? If he stays healthy, will he be healthy enough to move well, like he has been this year, all season? Will Grimes ever reach a comfort level in this system where he can become consistent enough for Kidd to trust him? Can Marshall be the straw the stirs the bench offense cocktail all season, reaching an effectiveness that suffices in the playoffs? 

Anyway, that's where I am with all of this, currently. Go ahead - flame away!

I feel like Grimes may have already reached that level of trust.  After averaging roughly 10 minutes a game (including a DNP) for the first 10 games, he has averaged over 25 minutes a game over the last 5.  His three point percentage is up to 40%, he has one of the best net ratings on the team (something I think they look at) and one of the best defensive ratings on the team (which matches the eye test).  And I think he is just getting started.  His three attempts per 36 is well down from his career average which I think is a sign that he is not fully comfortable yet.  I expect that number to continue to rise as he gets more comfortable.  My expectation is that he remains a mainstay in the rotation at 20+ minutes and that continues into the playoffs.

I'm a huge Maxi homer, but I think its getting really difficult to call him a two way player.  He was always limited on offense to mostly a 3&D player, but its getting harder and harder to call him that.  His points, attempts and three point attempts per 36 have all been falling to the point where he hardly ever takes a shot, and when he does shoot he hasn't hit 35% in 3+ years.  Between this limited offensive impact and his injury history I think he needs to be looked at more as a situational player than part of the core playoff rotation.

As for secondary playmaker, I feel like this is mostly a concern when Luka is off the court.  I'm not worried about Luka as the only true playmaker on the court for the 8 to 10 minutes Kyrie is off the court in a playoff game, especially given how much more offensively skilled the support players are now.  As for when Luka is off the court, I hope Naji does pan out in that role.  Otherwise, I'm afraid its going to be Dinwiddie.  In a truly tightened playoff rotation, ideally I see Naji generally subbing for PJ and Luka, and Grimes subbing for Klay and Kyrie.