Game 4: Dallas Mavericks (2-1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1)

[fifteenth]

I saw this on redditt.  Now making any kind of judgements over 4 games (with some new personnel)  may be  meaningless, but thought I would share.
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only 4 games in, which is a small sample size, but it’s growing increasingly concerning that the defense-first identity that buoyed the team last season is completely gone. Even last year, when they started 2-2 with some awful losses to the Raptors and Hawks, through four games they were already the best defensive team in basketball.

The defense was always going to regress a little bit with the changes in personnel-- and it does seem increasingly clear now that the size/defensive prowess lost in Slow Mo and KAT was a big deal-- but even the good defensive personnel this team does still have seem to be underperforming compared to last season. Rudy has looked solid, but by the eye test, none of NAW, Ant, or Jaden have been as effective at the point of attack. Some of our lineups (thinking specifically about the Randle/Reid backcourt) are getting absolutely abused defensively and on the glass, and I suspect that is a big part in driving some of these numbers, although even the starting lineup has a defensive rating of 111.3, which would still just be 13th in the league.

It seems that the change in offensive philosophy, which I think we can all agree is a great change, has come at the expense of the defense.

Last season, they ranked:

1st in defensive rating,

1st in points allowed,

2nd in points allowed in the paint,

5th in defense rebounding,

4th in opponent second chance points,

6th in steals,

5th in blocks.

This season, through 4 games:

13th in defensive rating,

13th in points allowed,

28th (!!!!!) in points allowed in the paint,

12th in defensive rebounding,

16th in opponent second chance points,

28th in steals,

28th in blocks.

It's early. 4 games is a tiny sample size and they are adjusting to some massive changes in personnel in the last few weeks. It's also worth noting other defensively elite teams from last year, including the Celtics, Magic, and Heat, also look like they've taken a step back. But this is an absolutely striking drop in defensive performance for a team that has retained arguably their 4 most valuable defensive players and a team whose clear strength was being a defensively elite team.

These numbers will regress, I don't think it will be this bad all season. But 13th in defense with some absolutely fatal flaws in the paint-- no matter how good the offense can be (which to be clear, so far, it is just slightly above average)-- is simply not going to cut it.

Whatevs. The "tiny sample size and they are adjusting to some massive changes in personnel" that he quotes isn't just a caveat that suggests the numbers will "regress," it is a fact that says his attempt at analysis is way too early. People on the internet use math words to make it seem like they know how to do statistical analysis. 

If he knew what he was doing, he would wait until he had sufficient data to say something like "growing increasingly concerning." 

It's silly. How can this, "it’s growing increasingly concerning that the defense-first identity that buoyed the team last season is completely gone," be included in the same argument that includes " tiny sample size."

Make the alarm in your conclusion match the quality of your data. 

I was a Math teacher for a while. I give his first homework a D minus. 

Based on this tiny data sample he'll probably fail the class. 

EDIT: READ THE NEXT THE PAGE. I'M AN IDIOT. LOL, I was kind of a jerk in this post too, so confident, blasting away at some reddit user. SHM.