10-22-2024, 11:54 AM
(10-22-2024, 11:22 AM)F Gump Wrote: The summer before, I thought he would be available but it would take most or all of the MLE to sign JB.
I based that number on good regular seasons and progress as an NBA playmaker but questions about his playoff potential, especially whether he could be a long-term fit next to Luka, and what number would leave him as a trade asset if he didn't improve. Once the season started and he showed a bit more, I was hoping for them to lock him up asap. I would assume that the Mavs, seeing more behind the scenes than we get to see, would have had enough data to know to lock him up while MLE deal was still available.
From the Mavs POV, I think they were wanting to keep him as a trade chip to use that season, and small salary would add to the value, perhaps. Ultimately he proved too valuable to trade.
If you think I am unrealistic with how I look at these things, that's fine, but fwiw I pretty much nailed the Green number at or below the MLE (at a time when the discussions here were seeing 17M/yr and 20M/yr and some even higher) based on the same issues I see with Hardy -- which is, you shouldn't assume that signing a player is going to make him develop on a much better trajectory than he's already showing. There's a clamor to pay him based on what we hope we will be, not on what he is, and I think that's bad negotiating.
I have slightly more positivity about Hardy's chance to grow than I did with JG, based solely on the fact JG had 3 years and JH has only had 2. But neither showed any real progress in the year immediately prior to the signing, which is concerning.
My recollection on Josh Green is that there was a group of folks that had some crazy high numbers, there was a group of folks that liked him around MLE (including me) and I though your take was that he was not worth the MLE. Maybe I am remembering this wrong, but I thought you were one of the few folks that did not like that extension?
I don't think you are unrealistic, just pessimistic, especially when it comes to young players.