10-20-2024, 04:55 AM
I think that an offer for GRIMES has to aim at a number that you think he is likely to get next summer, with a discount.
Some factors limiting that market for him will be that he is going to log backup minutes that may be very limited (he's competing with Naji, Maxi, Hardy, Dinwiddie, and Exum later in the season), and next summer's outside offers will get filtered down by the fact he is RFA. There's also the potential for injury issue to reappear.
Mavs have almost no sample size to work with. What will he look like in a Doncic-led offense? We have no clue, so it's really hard for us to evaluate. But for a comp, at this point WITHOUT any RFA protection in the mix, we know Mavs could have locked up Brunson at MLE numbers. And Grimes has not been even remotely as good in years 1-3 as Brunson was.
So imo for the Mavs to offer MLE right now, they have to expect he will play at greater than MLE value this season. That seems like a big stretch to me.
So I would expect their offers will start in the 50% of MLE range, perhaps, with Grimes trying to pull that number upward. One big factor that we have no way to assess is what the Mavs and Grimes BOTH think of his past injury situation, and prognosis for more of that, because that will have a HUGE factor in the eagerness to do a deal and the numbers being discussed. Grimes getting something locked in now, rather than negotiating for perhaps the same deal next summer, offers him some valuable salary protection amid injury concerns.
My guess is that if there's a deal, it ends up being for 3 years, and starts in the 7-10M range for 1st year salary.
As for HARDY, the Mavs don't have a deadline right now to do a deal. And they do have RFA rights on him next summer. It's hard to know if he can take that next step to playing with others, and feeding them too, rather than using possessions to get his own shots, but answering that question is key to any offer (or to none at all, and just letting it play out). This preseason he is still barely breaking 40% on shooting pct overall, with high turnovers and iffy defense.
Some factors limiting that market for him will be that he is going to log backup minutes that may be very limited (he's competing with Naji, Maxi, Hardy, Dinwiddie, and Exum later in the season), and next summer's outside offers will get filtered down by the fact he is RFA. There's also the potential for injury issue to reappear.
Mavs have almost no sample size to work with. What will he look like in a Doncic-led offense? We have no clue, so it's really hard for us to evaluate. But for a comp, at this point WITHOUT any RFA protection in the mix, we know Mavs could have locked up Brunson at MLE numbers. And Grimes has not been even remotely as good in years 1-3 as Brunson was.
So imo for the Mavs to offer MLE right now, they have to expect he will play at greater than MLE value this season. That seems like a big stretch to me.
So I would expect their offers will start in the 50% of MLE range, perhaps, with Grimes trying to pull that number upward. One big factor that we have no way to assess is what the Mavs and Grimes BOTH think of his past injury situation, and prognosis for more of that, because that will have a HUGE factor in the eagerness to do a deal and the numbers being discussed. Grimes getting something locked in now, rather than negotiating for perhaps the same deal next summer, offers him some valuable salary protection amid injury concerns.
My guess is that if there's a deal, it ends up being for 3 years, and starts in the 7-10M range for 1st year salary.
As for HARDY, the Mavs don't have a deadline right now to do a deal. And they do have RFA rights on him next summer. It's hard to know if he can take that next step to playing with others, and feeding them too, rather than using possessions to get his own shots, but answering that question is key to any offer (or to none at all, and just letting it play out). This preseason he is still barely breaking 40% on shooting pct overall, with high turnovers and iffy defense.
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