Trade & FA 2024-25:

[The Jom]

Yep. And I am not underselling Lively, ie this is not based on any doubts about his potential.

Just recognizing some realities. As in ...

1 There are challenges that exist when you are a slender guy who will often have to play against physical brutes. Play heavy minutes and you greatly increase your risk of injury (which we already saw, as he had MULTIPLE different injuries as a rookie that caused him to miss games). 

2 Tyson Chandler, a good comp, averaged 27 mpg.

3 Because of injuries, there will be games in which he logs 0 minutes of the 42-44, and games in which there will be 42-44 available (and he can't fill) because DG is dinged up.

4 Also, in that 42-44 mpg, I am only considering how to divvy the minutes as a center -- ie, if there's thought that Lively might have potential to do more than rim-run and rebound-defend, a la KG supposedly, then he would end up being used as a PF for some of the game. Maybe that happens, but it doesn't necessarily lengthen his minutes at C.

5 One issue that is completely overlooked re Lively is that he is AWFUL at FTs, and that is going to be an extra limiter on his minutes. You can't trust him to close games when Hack-A-Dereck is a possible way for a team to get an empty possession out of the Mavs. Gafford is not as bad, but also is bad, which makes it a thing that can impact C minutes.

Those opinions are certainly reasonable. But imho you are predicting little to no growth from the 20-year old. He’s bad at FT’s now. He’s slender now. He commands 28 mins/night now. I do not expect those limits to last the season, let alone the next 2. He’s a 30-minute man very soon. Not advocating for a Gafford trade here. Just saying Lively is very good and improving.