Rotations and Ideas

[mvossman]

Upon further reflection, and looking more at actual minutes played last season, I think we are overlooking 2 important points.

1 Once we get into the reality of the season, there will be more than enough minutes for each player named to satisfy the desires of every realistic expectation here, because we are looking at the ideal situation of a full roster all suited up and ready to play, all 82, when in reality that's not what Kidd will have. 

Your starters are all but certain to miss 5-10 games or more. Your backup player of choice is unlikely to play 82 either. Load management and injuries idle your better players regularly, resulting in extra available minutes for those lower in the pecking order. (For example, last year Luka played 2624 minutes in total, which used up on average only 32 mpg based on 82 games in the season. Kyrie played 2030, which only used up 24.8 mpg based on 82 games in the season. Lively played 1294, which only used up 15.8 mpg based on 82 games in the season.)

If you stop and estimate how many games you think each Mav player will play next season, and then multiply it by how many mpg he will play each time he plays, you find that the total minutes for all your key players will fall well sort of the approx 20,000 minutes of play you have over the course of a season. There will be tons of minutes for those various backups, that we don't see now but that arise as the season unfolds, and often it's that way even before we get to opening day. It works itself out.

Your top 6 players (starters plus Lively) last season, total minutes -- in every case these should be same or lower, except perhaps some shift from Gafford to Lively
Luka  2624
Kyrie  2030
Klay  2284
PJW 2221
Gafford   1815
Lively  1294 
TOT   12268  =  150 mpg over 82 games

OTHERS
Naji 1257
Grimes 1025
Exum  1088
Kleber  871
Dinwiddie  2152 
TOT    6393  = 78 mpg over 82 games
I don't think these will stay the same, but if we assume SD plays way fewer this season, that leaves lots to give to the others as they are needed in games.

TOT  18661

UNACCOUNTED FOR =  ~1000

Not listed - Hardy, Powell, Omax, Lawson/Morris

2 One other factor being overlooked in these discussions is how (or if) the Mavs will invest minutes to try to develop players. OMax, I'm looking at you. (But I could just as well be thinking of Grimes, Hardy, or 2-ways.)

For those we doubt as keepers, we don't want to invest much in the way of regular minutes. But are there any of those the Mavs should see highly enough to keep using? OMax was drafted as a project who was thought to have lots of potential, but if he's 3rd or 4th string playing GL and garbage time, and mostly sparing it up (he can't shoot a lick, even in GL), is his door closed?

Ha!  In the post you are responding to I literally started to make this point (although not nearly in this detail).  There is definitely a big difference between minutes per game in an idealized single game when everyone is healthy situation and across a long season with injuries and load management.  

One minor quibble is that I think Grimes second season is probably a more accurate estimate of his future contributions (as I continue to beat that horse into the ground).

Dinwiddie played a lot of minutes last year and is still a quality player.  He is probably going to play more minutes than I originally thought.  My guess is both Hardy and Exum will take a big hit.