Trade & FA 2024-25:

[mvossman]

Dameris has a new piece on the team in D Magazine. https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2024/07...offseason/ 

He's basically going through various statements Nico has made and showing how his vision has played out.  Here is a line I thought was interesting:

“We’re built now with our core for the next three playoffs” – June 14, 2024

Notice the date (pre the offseason acquisitions).  I'm not sure that was true when he said it or now for that matter.  There is some business to be done.  But, there is a strong young core supplemented by two aging stars who should be here for the next three playoff runs.  Here is what we have locked down beyond our three FA guards next summer in Grimes, Hardy and Exum: 

Luka      Luka     P/O
Kyrie      P/O
Klay       Klay      Klay
PJW       PJW
Lively     Lively    Lively

Naji       Naji       Naji
OMax    OMax     OMax
Maxi      Maxi
Gafford  Gafford

Luka foregoing his 26/27 PO and extending is a no brainer.

Kyrie is more interesting.  I presume he will also forego his PO for 25/26 and replace it with something with additional years.  Kyrie's willingness to take about $7mm less than his max last summer was a critical element to the flexibility required to accomplish other roster building priorities last season and this season.  It also established what is turning into a trend for 30+ second stars.   Look at Harden 2/$70 or DeRozan.  The Kings basically put $10mm of additional money in the third year of DeRozan's deal so that he's either 3/$76 or 2/$60.  

I thought what Sacramento did was clever.  I could see Kyrie doing something similar.  Add years, but do it at a discount to his $40mm number.  Teams can't just give this class of player the same money as Luka/SGA/Tatum any more and finding creative ways to make it work is critical.  We talked for months about the benefits of Kyrie taking less than his full Max and then Nico actually pulled it off.  The trick with Kyrie's extension will be getting this right again.

The next thing I notice is that PJ and Gafford will be UFA's after two more seasons.  They can be extended starting next summer and running through 6/30/26.  PJ's current contract slots in well with what we are seeing lots of 'good starter' types getting.  I think extending him in that range is the smart play.  Gafford might be more challenging.  He's paid really well for a back-up and Lively's big money will kick in the next summer after Gafford's UFA summer.  I could see him trying for starter money somewhere else.  I could also see us trying to save a few dollars at the backup center spot (or at the very least delaying the extension decision). 

Finally, we don't have a backup guard past next season.  We have three that will be free in Exum (UFA w/EB rights) and Grimes/Hardy (both RFA).  We also have rumors we are sniffing around players who could be our third PG.  That makes sense to me.  If your bench is Gafford, Maxi, Naji and Grimes, the thing you are missing is ball-handling.  If you look at backup guards playing with Kyrie and Klay, Grimes makes good sense.  Hardy doesn't really.  He's a self creator and threw a few nice lobs and hit his 3's in the playoffs.  But, Dallas gets crushed when he is in the game.  He's one of the few players whose numbers declined after the TDL.  The D is a negative, but the surprising thing is how bad the O is when he's playing.  It is fair to point out that he doesn't get much time with Luka, but I'm not sure where his minutes will come from when we are at full strength.  The thing is, I'm not in love with the FA point guards (Smith, Jones and Fultz).  Is any of them better than Exum?  So, I'm not in a hurry to do something just to do something.  This hole could also be filled in the 2025 draft.  

Looking forward, if you want to add someone making more than about $4mm (now) or $5mm (next summer), it probably means sending out Maxi.  They need to avoid doing things that will hard-cap them at the first apron next summer as retaining players will likely take them over the first apron.  I don't know how much longer Maxi will hold off OMax, but I'm probably not willing to trade Maxi and count on OMax in a deep playoff run quite yet.  Can Naji back up the 3 and the 4 in the playoffs?   But next summer, between expiring Maxi, the 2025 pick and S&T Hardy, you have some things to work with (even if it is just filling the backup guard role).  Yes, you could do something related to 2025, Maxi and Hardy now or at the TDL.  But the first apron ties your hands.  There is greater flexibility next summer if you can avoid hard cap issues like incoming S&T's or taking back more money than you send out.

Good stuff.  I could see a significant restructuring of the big rotation next offseason.  Gafford, Maxi and Powell will all be expiring and together nearly 30 mil.  You could make an argument for sending all of them out replacing Maxi with Omax, Gafford with quality backup making 5-8 and Powell with a vet min.