Trade & FA 2024-25:

[mvossman]

I think Exum is bad ass, and checks a ton of important boxes:

Competent PG in terms of bringing the ball up. 
Willing to give the ball up to get the possession's action started (few Mavs are).
GREAT size and defense for a guard, and can in fact guard 1-3 quite effectively (this is GOLD). 
Similar in size to Luka, which in theory means that even if he can't do what Luka can do, he at least fits next to some of the same players as Luka's backup. 
High energy guy.
Surprisingly good on catch and shoot attempts that are WIDE OPEN

...and all that on a vet minimum, with real hope of a team-friendly next deal. 

BUT:

He's scared to shoot. I don't understand why, really, because he's pretty good at it. He'll never be a quick-release sniper, but he CAN shoot. He just won't. And, to play PG here, you must, must be an offensive threat when you have the ball, like Luka and Kyrie are. That's non-negotiable. There were a couple of moments in that one good finals game where he pulled up for shots when his defender went under (pretty sure he made them, too), but to actually play that role off the bench in a usable way, his defender has to KNOW he's going to shoot that. 

It's not even about making them, it's about the defense knowing he's going to take them. Make them have to make decisions. Otherwise, the entire offense dies. 

As long as he's scared to try on offense, I don't think there's room for him in the NBA (as an on-ball player, at least). I wouldn't want him in a playoff rotation while this is a problem for him, and unfortunately, that probably means I wouldn't want him back at anything above the minimum, which is why I bet they're wondering if he should be here again this year. At least with him another minimum isn't out of the question (someone is going to pay Hardy, I promise). Based on what I've seen so far, I'd say it's unclear whether Exum should be a backup PG or a 3&D wing. Not a great place to be for someone his age. 

I think Hardy is a much better bet as backup point guard, personally. He does the same stuff Luka and Kyrie do, and he's going to improve at those things. He's not scared of getting shots up. Getting shots up brings the defense, which opens passing lanes. That, in an oversimplified, lacking nuance way, IS modern offense.

Its true that Exum does not take enough shots to be a true 6th man, but he takes more than Green and roughly the same as DJJ and Marshall.  He is also a better secondary creator than any of those guys without being a negative on defense.  He was very valuable in that role during the regular season (best net rating on the team).  But I think some of that was due to unsustainable efficiency.  He is not going to shoot nearly 50% from three again.  In the playoffs he actually upped his shooting volume a little, but his efficiency completely tanked (from everywhere on the court) making him a huge negative on offense.  Along with the injury concerns, its hard to know what we are going to get next year.  

Hardy is obviously not afraid to shoot, and he can create some for himself, but he is terrible at the rim and he struggles creating for others.  I feel like his game is closer to Hardaway than somebody like Dinwiddie.

My goal for this offseason was to address the glaring hole at 6th man as the Hardaway/Exum/Hardy group completely failed in the playoffs.  We also had to play Luka 40 minutes a game when Kyrie was out in order to compete.  A legit 6th man/creator would really help on the wear and tear to Luka (and Kyrie) during the regular season.

But the FO seems to be more concerned with the lack of shooting in the starting lineup.  In an ideal world we could address both issue with a single player, but that player would be much more expensive in cap and assets (see Grant, Jerami).

I'm skeptical that either Exum or Hardy can play that third creator role that was so effective during the WCF run with Dinwiddie.  If we could send out Hardy for somebody that could play that role (like Tyus) I think it would be a no brainer.