Trade & FA 2024-25:

[SleepingHero]

I feel like you are hyper focusing on one year of low volume data and ignoring the rest.  Its hard to know how much that big jump in efficiency is improvement and how much is due to high variance of 3 point shooting.  I have never looked at this before, but the primary purpose of DARKO is to project player performance.  It currently projects Deni to shoot 33.4% and DJJ to shoot 36%.  Will that improve with Luka?  Probably.  DJJ only improved a percent in performance.  Based on what you presented regarding wide open frequency I could see it being more with Deni.  The bottom line is that neither of them shoot enough to truly stretch the floor.

I know Deni is a three level scorer.  He is a good young player.  I am guessing he will cost more than you are proposing.

I guess I don't remember reading your reasoning behind the Grimes trade.  If they actually get him for Timmy and a second I will buy you a beer.

For what it's worth regarding Deni's 3pt shooting:

Career catch and shoot 3's:

2020-21: 31.7%     51.6% frequency 
2021-22: 31.7%     39.7% frequency
2022-23: 31.6%     32.8% frequency
2023-24: 40.5%     20.4% frequency


So you're right that Deni isn't a knockdown 3pt shooter, but these stats tell me as his career has gone on he's learned when and where he likes to shoot a 3. And this last year when he does, that 3 will more than likely go in. This also coincides with him becoming the primary offensive initiator for Washington, thus more drives vs. less standing around the perimeter. 


Career wide open 3's 
2020-21: 31.5%     39.7% frequency 
2021-22: 38.8%     25.4% frequency
2022-23: 33.3%     24.5% frequency
2023-24: 44.4%     18.0% frequency

These stats tell a much different story. Ignore his rookie year and I see a relatively strong 3pt shooter when he's left wide open. It just doesn't happen that often. At worst, Deni wide open attempts at 3s are better than DJJ. Also have to factor in the other stuff Deni can do much better such as driving and kicking. 

Deni's worst quality is his inability to finish at the rim. Something DJJ is much better at. I can see him and DJJ working like Lively and Gafford. Similar roles but they both have different strengths. 

He also can bring the ball up unlike DJJ or PJ.