Trade & FA 2024-25:

[mvossman]

I couldn't disagree with any of this more.

Almost HALF of DJJ's FGA's this year were wide open catch and shoot 3's. The other half of his FGA's were mostly dunks.

42.4 FREQ% - 6+Feet (Wide Open) - DJJ shot 35% 3PT
5.1 FREQ% - 4-6 Feet (Open) - DJJ shot 36% 3PT

DJJ's shot 239 3PA, almost every single one of them Wide Open and had the best 3PT shooting season of his career at a blistering 34.3%.


Deni with only 18.0 FREQ%  6+Feet (Wide Open) and shot 44.4% 3PT.


Neither of these guys are lighting it up from 3 with any kind of volume but the 3's that Luka generates for others is crazy. It's easy to see that these two aren't comparable. And Deni is a 3 level scorer type, just way different than DJJ on that end.


I've already beaten the Grimes thing to death the past few weeks. I'm confident in my opinion there that THJ and the '25 SRP (TOR) which will likely be in the 33-38 pick range is plenty to get it done.

I feel like you are hyper focusing on one year of low volume data and ignoring the rest.  Its hard to know how much that big jump in efficiency is improvement and how much is due to high variance of 3 point shooting.  I have never looked at this before, but the primary purpose of DARKO is to project player performance.  It currently projects Deni to shoot 33.4% and DJJ to shoot 36%.  Will that improve with Luka?  Probably.  DJJ only improved a percent in performance.  Based on what you presented regarding wide open frequency I could see it being more with Deni.  The bottom line is that neither of them shoot enough to truly stretch the floor.

I know Deni is a three level scorer.  He is a good young player.  I am guessing he will cost more than you are proposing.

I guess I don't remember reading your reasoning behind the Grimes trade.  If they actually get him for Timmy and a second I will buy you a beer.