Trade & FA 2024-25:

[SleepingHero]

Ya know a wing that fits THJ money and we don't need to worry about apron's or whatever?

Lauri Markkannen.

His contract situation muddies the waters in terms of UTA just flipping him to the highest bidder.  Lauri wants at least a 4 years max extension, but due to his contract he can't receive the most amount of money possible. Correct me if I'm wrong Mr. Gump or Dan, but the CBA only allows raises for extensions to be 140% over the last year of the contract. Lauri's last year is 18.1 mil which means if he extended this summer, the most he could receive for an extension is starting at ~26mil w/8% raises (so roughly 4 years/120 mil). 

That means Lauri will almost undoubtedly wait till the summer of 2025 when he is a free agent to sign a max contract, foregoing an extension entirely. On the open market Lauri will get max contract offers from any team with space and a role for him. Further, Lauri has already signaled an exhaustion of losing and wants to win ( https://www.ksl.com/article/50983677/lau...20that.%22 )

"I want to win basketball games and get to the playoffs; and hopefully at the end, get all the way, and that's the ultimate goal," Markkanen said. "They know that."

Will he be patient with Utah? They have a lotto pick in an albeit shallow draft. They have a bunch of cap space they can use to sign an impact player. But given how tough the West is, is Utah really just 1 free agent away from breaking into a top 8 team? I doubt it. 

Further to add even more complexity, the Jazz can use some of their capspace to renegotiate Lauri's deal and extend him at a number much higher/closer to what Lauri wants, similar to how they reworked Clarksons contract last year. That will put Lauri's next year deal around 42mil w/8% raises (roughly 4/200). But that means Lauri cannot be traded at all next year due to restrictions expiring after the TDL. AND do the Jazz really want to tie up one of the lone max contract spots a team can have to a guy that hasn't proven he can be THE guy and lead his team to the playoffs? Further, this pretty much takes away all flexibility for Utah and Lauri could ask out anyways. I'm not sure they want to go that route. I also think with Utah's assets, they'd be more inclined to take a slow approach to building and finding a franchise guy in 2025 vs. trying to make this current team work.

Their GM said as much: 

"I don't want to waste any years, but you also have to do it within the timeline that makes sense," general manager Justin Zanik said. "We're not trying to say, 'Hey, Lauri, we want to make you happy. You've never made the playoffs so we're gonna just burn all our picks and get some marginal-level repeat player and maybe we'll be a seven seed.' The goal is to make the playoffs and then grow from there."

So it makes sense for Utah to just shop Lauri to the highest bidder and move on right? Well due to his contract, that isn't so cut and dry. If he is traded to a team that doesn't have cap space and cant renegotiate his contract, he'll lose some money immediately due to not renegotiating his contract. Which means I can see Lauri's agent saying "we're going to test free agency if any team trades for him" to force Utah to pony up now. Remember, that route allows Lauri's camp to control everything and gets security this summer. They want Utah's hand to be forced.  

I don't know what team is going to be super motivated to dump 3-5 picks for a guy who will be threatening testing free agency the entire season. This affects some more than others (*cough* OKC) and will depress the Lauri market imo. But even if the team with the most picks did want Lauri, I don't see how he solves anything OKC needs. Chet+Lauri overlap a bit too much skillset and their lack of center isn't filled.

Utah has been on record they want 4 picks in return for Lauri. I don't think that's happening given his contract situation. But 2-3 picks should be on the table. Mavs have shown a history of trading for guys with risky summer contract situations and not caring about said risk. Lauri also fills a huge position of need here and fits well:

• He can't create his own shot reliably, but is arguably the best player in the league in catch and shoot shots/created looks. Under Luka he might be a 30ppg guy
  
• He has a lot of size, but plays like a wing. Lets the Mavs run 5 out without really giving up much mobility. 
  
• He tried to force his way to Dallas 4 years ago but the Mavs weren't motivated to pay up. 
  
• Did I mention that he can play 5 out? 
  

In terms of pipe dreams, this is a long shot. But the Mavs could offer Utah 2 prospects, 2 FRPs, 1 FRP swap, and a bunch of 2nds. That might just be enough. This deal still allows the Mavs to stay under the 1st apron this year as well.