(06-02-2024, 07:06 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: One of these is Bruce Brown in the 22/23 Playoffs and the other is DJJ in the 23/24 Playoffs
Player 1 Player 2
Age 27 26
Points 9.8 12.0
Reb 3.8 4.0
FG% .492 .511
3% .396 .316
VORP 0.3 0.4
WS/48 .096 .141
PER 11.1 15.5
D-Rtg 116 109
On Ct +7.4 +10.5
On-Off +5.8 +4.1
Some other interesting data. DJJ has the worst D-Rating of any of the top 7 in our playoff rotation (starters plus Lively and Green) at 116. Green is 4th best at 112. Jones has the 6th best WS/48 at .096 slightly beating out PJ at 0.91 (Green is .130). DJJ has the 7th best PER at 11.1 (Green is 12.1). Green is historically the better three point shooter, but in the playoffs he trails Jones. If Josh made two more of his 48 attempted 3's (or Jones missed two of his 53 attempted 3's), they'd be the same there.
I continue to think Jones is 'worth' more than the TP MLE. Whether someone will pay it or not is another question. It would probably be a sacrifice on his part to take the $5.2mm on a 1+1. If he does, great. But, I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE. Green with consistent minutes is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr. I'd rather use THJ plus some draft assets toward improvement as that combo probably gets you a player who is just as good as or better than either Jones or Green (and you'd still have the TP MLE to spend on someone else if Jones Jr. left).
Stats are not everything. They are important... but you also have to have an eye for the big picture and how different pieces fit together. For example, I am sure we can find stats to show that Grant Williams is still doing impactful things in Charlotte... but when you consider Luka's characteristics, it should have been obvious from the get-go that Grant would not make a good duo with Luka at the Forward position because of their respective physical characteristics.
For a long time, I have wanted Herb Jones on this team... and thru some miracle, DJJ has turned himself into exactly that, a Herb Jones type of defender. I think that it would lead to a more stable Mavs team if they had someone with better skills on offense than DJJ... but then consider that DJJ is covering for both Kyrie and Luka on defense at different times. He's capable of being POA on the best small Guard as well as a lot of Large Forwards. Green doesn't have the same impact, no matter what the stats say, because he doesn't have the length to trouble some gurads/wings and can't guard the bigger forwards.
That's why I keep harping on the Kyrie for Dejounte swap. I think if the Mavs do that, then they can get someone who can contribute more on offense at SG than DJJ. That's what I'm really after, more balance, not simply to swap Kyrie for Dejounte. As long as the Mavs have Kyrie, and he keeps playing like superstar Kyrie though (not any less), then DJJ is perfectly fine (although Herb would still make for a better fit).