Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[mvossman]

Some other interesting data.  DJJ has the worst D-Rating of any of the top 7 in our playoff rotation (starters plus Lively and Green) at 116.  Green is 4th best at 112.  Jones has the 6th best WS/48 at .096 slightly beating out PJ at 0.91 (Green is .130).  DJJ has the 7th best PER at 11.1 (Green is 12.1).  Green is historically the better three point shooter, but in the playoffs he trails Jones.  If Josh made two more of his 48 attempted 3's (or Jones missed two of his 53 attempted 3's), they'd be the same there.

I continue to think Jones is 'worth' more than the TP MLE.  Whether someone will pay it or not is another question.  It would probably be a sacrifice on his part to take the $5.2mm on a 1+1.  If he does, great.  But, I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE.  Green with consistent minutes is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr.  I'd rather use THJ plus some draft assets toward improvement as that combo probably gets you a player who is just as good as or better than either Jones or Green (and you'd still have the TP MLE to spend on someone else if Jones Jr. left).

I feel like both the long term advanced data and the eye test show that DJJ is a considerably better defender than Green.  Comparing D rating in the playoffs is a little bit apples to oranges as DJJ has been matched against the opposing teams best offensive player and Green has been coming off the bench when a lot of times that opposing offensive player is not even on the floor.  If we look at D rating for the season Green has the worst on the team.

I'm not sure holding onto Timmy until the TDL is going to be an option the FO wants to take.  As he is falling completely out of the playoff rotation, I think both sides are going to want to move him to a different situation sooner rather than later.  

I think its really hard to make the argument that we should let one of our young starters on an NBA finals team walk because we might get a little more value out of THJ expiring contract at the TDL.