Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Unless DJJ has a Bruce Brown-esque Finals run (and that would be a great problem to have), I don't think anyone will consider offering him a lot more than the non-tax MLE. Mavs just need to find a way to free up that MLE.

One of these is Bruce Brown in the 22/23 Playoffs and the other is DJJ in the 23/24 Playoffs


              Player 1     Player 2

Age          27            26
Points       9.8           12.0
Reb          3.8           4.0
FG%        .492          .511
3%          .396          .316
VORP        0.3           0.4
WS/48      .096          .141
PER          11.1          15.5   
D-Rtg       116            109
On Ct        +7.4          +10.5
On-Off       +5.8         +4.1

Some other interesting data.  DJJ has the worst D-Rating of any of the top 7 in our playoff rotation (starters plus Lively and Green) at 116.  Green is 4th best at 112.  Jones has the 6th best WS/48 at .096 slightly beating out PJ at 0.91 (Green is .130).  DJJ has the 7th best PER at 11.1 (Green is 12.1).  Green is historically the better three point shooter, but in the playoffs he trails Jones.  If Josh made two more of his 48 attempted 3's (or Jones missed two of his 53 attempted 3's), they'd be the same there.

I continue to think Jones is 'worth' more than the TP MLE.  Whether someone will pay it or not is another question.  It would probably be a sacrifice on his part to take the $5.2mm on a 1+1.  If he does, great.  But, I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE.  Green with consistent minutes is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr.  I'd rather use THJ plus some draft assets toward improvement as that combo probably gets you a player who is just as good as or better than either Jones or Green (and you'd still have the TP MLE to spend on someone else if Jones Jr. left).