My super-unsophisticated analysis says there are only 2 questions that matter:
1. Can DJJ make life difficult for SGA? If yes, this series will never be in doubt.
2. If no, we’ll have a barn burner, and the best offender (SGA? Kyrie? Gimpy Luka?) wins. Who will that be?
50% chance (1/2) Mavs win on question 1, plus a 67% chance (2/3) they win on question 2. That leaves only a 17% chance the bad guys prevail.
Other questions that interest me but don’t seem likely to be decisive:
* Will Gafford defend a small so that PJ draws the Chet assignment?
* Will Mavs continue regular season strategy of daring Giddy to shoot (coming off back to back terrific shooting nights)?
* Will Lively’s defensive rim presence continue at all-world levels, or will the rookie whistles run him off the court quickly?
* Does this Super KAI thing have legs (51% FG, 45% 3PG, 27 PPG)?
* Will Exum and/or Green show out against a team that, presumably, can’t play as physical as the Clippers?
* Does Jalen Williams turn into a superstar at Mavs’ expense?
* Is Gordon Hayward done?
1. Can DJJ make life difficult for SGA? If yes, this series will never be in doubt.
2. If no, we’ll have a barn burner, and the best offender (SGA? Kyrie? Gimpy Luka?) wins. Who will that be?
50% chance (1/2) Mavs win on question 1, plus a 67% chance (2/3) they win on question 2. That leaves only a 17% chance the bad guys prevail.
Other questions that interest me but don’t seem likely to be decisive:
* Will Gafford defend a small so that PJ draws the Chet assignment?
* Will Mavs continue regular season strategy of daring Giddy to shoot (coming off back to back terrific shooting nights)?
* Will Lively’s defensive rim presence continue at all-world levels, or will the rookie whistles run him off the court quickly?
* Does this Super KAI thing have legs (51% FG, 45% 3PG, 27 PPG)?
* Will Exum and/or Green show out against a team that, presumably, can’t play as physical as the Clippers?
* Does Jalen Williams turn into a superstar at Mavs’ expense?
* Is Gordon Hayward done?
Pessimism doesn’t make you smart, just pessimistic.
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