11-13-2023, 07:17 AM
Kidd said lineups/rotations would be fluid for the first 10 games and it feels like he's settled into something the last couple of games. It is hard to know because foul trouble and bench clearing leads have kept us from seeing a closing lineup. But, the bench is basically THJ coming in for Kyrie. Powell/Green coming in for Lively and Grant Williams and Exum coming in for Luka as Kyrie returns.
It looks like Kidd is going to continue to give Hardy those developmental minutes in the second quarter (at least). It also looks like Luka isn't going to play the entire first and third quarters. I'm pleased that has continued to be the case. We just seem to get a better version of Luka when Kidd does this.
So, when Kyrie sits the first time you have: Powell, DJJ, THJ, Green and Luka (Green subs for GWill and DJJ is the PF)
When Kyrie returns and Luka sits you have: Powell, THJ, Green, Exum and Kyrie (very small. Powell and four guards)
That continues into the second quarter. When Luka returns it is: Lively, Williams, Green, Exum and Luka (fairly traditional)
They closed the half with Powell, THJ, Green, Luka and Kyrie (again, small)
Interestingly, Grant Williams hasn't closed the half in either of the last two games. The Hardy 2nd quarter cameo's happen alongside Luka and at the expense of Exum. We are still dealing with small samples, but the starting lineup has a net rating of -3.7. Sub Green for DJJ and it is +22.4 (that surprises me given the poor games Green played recently). But, it gives some indication why Green tends to close halves.
Conversely, the best On-minus-Off players through 10 games are DJJ 13.4, Luka 11.9, Lively 11.6, GWill 8.9 and Exum 4.9. Everyone else is negative which includes Irving and three mainstays of the bench in Green, Powell and THJ. Everyone in the top 9 has a positive On Court. As much as anything, this appears to be Kyrie's slow start more than a systemic issue with the bench. We don't really have a true "bench" as one of the super-stars is always on the court.
A note about DJJ. The board seems to have settled on him as being just fine as a starter. He's certainly contributing to winning in his minutes on the floor. But, is he playing well? His .366 from 3 is a career best. His 14.2 points per 36 is also his best. But, pretty much every other number for him is sub-standard compared to his career. His Per 36 Turnovers, Blocks, Steals and Rebounds are below his career average. His D-Rating is the worst of his career (the 5 players around him play into this number). His PER and WS/48 are below his career average and his DBPM is actually negative. His usage is most similar to his age 21 season with Miami (18/19). But there is still a little food on the bone when you compare this season to that one. I don't know whether to be encouraged or discouraged by all of this. It may be that none of it matters and 'good Kyrie' makes the starting lineup work eventually. But there are clearly lineups with DJJ that are working even if it isn't the first five to start the game.
It looks like Kidd is going to continue to give Hardy those developmental minutes in the second quarter (at least). It also looks like Luka isn't going to play the entire first and third quarters. I'm pleased that has continued to be the case. We just seem to get a better version of Luka when Kidd does this.
So, when Kyrie sits the first time you have: Powell, DJJ, THJ, Green and Luka (Green subs for GWill and DJJ is the PF)
When Kyrie returns and Luka sits you have: Powell, THJ, Green, Exum and Kyrie (very small. Powell and four guards)
That continues into the second quarter. When Luka returns it is: Lively, Williams, Green, Exum and Luka (fairly traditional)
They closed the half with Powell, THJ, Green, Luka and Kyrie (again, small)
Interestingly, Grant Williams hasn't closed the half in either of the last two games. The Hardy 2nd quarter cameo's happen alongside Luka and at the expense of Exum. We are still dealing with small samples, but the starting lineup has a net rating of -3.7. Sub Green for DJJ and it is +22.4 (that surprises me given the poor games Green played recently). But, it gives some indication why Green tends to close halves.
Conversely, the best On-minus-Off players through 10 games are DJJ 13.4, Luka 11.9, Lively 11.6, GWill 8.9 and Exum 4.9. Everyone else is negative which includes Irving and three mainstays of the bench in Green, Powell and THJ. Everyone in the top 9 has a positive On Court. As much as anything, this appears to be Kyrie's slow start more than a systemic issue with the bench. We don't really have a true "bench" as one of the super-stars is always on the court.
A note about DJJ. The board seems to have settled on him as being just fine as a starter. He's certainly contributing to winning in his minutes on the floor. But, is he playing well? His .366 from 3 is a career best. His 14.2 points per 36 is also his best. But, pretty much every other number for him is sub-standard compared to his career. His Per 36 Turnovers, Blocks, Steals and Rebounds are below his career average. His D-Rating is the worst of his career (the 5 players around him play into this number). His PER and WS/48 are below his career average and his DBPM is actually negative. His usage is most similar to his age 21 season with Miami (18/19). But there is still a little food on the bone when you compare this season to that one. I don't know whether to be encouraged or discouraged by all of this. It may be that none of it matters and 'good Kyrie' makes the starting lineup work eventually. But there are clearly lineups with DJJ that are working even if it isn't the first five to start the game.
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