Mavs MVP at the 5% Mark (sans Luka)

[omahen]

I didn't want to start a new thread and this one seems closest to put down a couple of thoughts I had after the season start. Basically trying to use numbers to confirm what I have been consistently saying

Looking at early season data, it seems Mavs had şet up player roles quite well. Although it has a lot of limitations, I will use on/off numbers to "build my case". Every player on the team has a positive "on" rating, which is logical since they won most of games. Almost all players also have a positive "off" rating, which shows to me that team is deep and game situation doesn't change much when substitutions are done. Green is the only exception, as team plays much worse in minutes without him on the floor.

Looking at starters first, Luka has a slightly negative on/off. Offense with him on the floor is great, but it doesn't get much worse when off the floor. Defense is a little bit better when he is off the floor. Pretty logically Mavs have defensive problems with Kyrie on the court. Similar to Luka, offense is good with him on or off the court, on/off offense basically same. Lively is again similar story. Offense a bit better, defense a bit worse with him off the court. Very little difference in on/off numbers for GW too. It gets interesting from this point on.

Team is thriving with the role Green is playing. He is surely a better overall player than DJJ, but it seems the role he is playing is very good for the team. DJJ role on the other hand brings biggest negative on/off difference from the starting unit. Defense is very good with him on the floor, but offense (predictably) much worse. The other "negative" is THJ, especially because defense gets much worse with him on the floor. This is again pretty logical, as it is difficult to have good defense playing him next to Kyrie/Luka or Kyrie alone. THJ can be a very good player in correct set-up, but even though he is not a bad individual defender, Mavs simply need plus defenders on all positions next to their stars. Mavs having a bunch of SG on the bench who then play at same time also doesn't really help Timmys case. Especially, since the league is becoming so full of skilled tall guys.

Hardy numbers are really difficult to explain. For whatever reason, team defense is great with him on the floor. I would really need to dig into line-up data to understand that. A small sample probably plays a big role here.

Based on this early numbers, there are imho two possible solutions:
- Trade. Put someone else in DJJ role playing him THJ minutes (THJ is in any case the most realistic salary going out in any trade). DJJ keeps his minutes coming from the bench. That someone else needs to be great defender (to keep positive DJJ defensive impact), who is also good offensively (to improve worse offense we have now with DJJ on the floor). Roles of other players are well set. Lively might not be a contender level center yet, but will get there.
- Start Green and have DJJ come from the bench, both playing same minutes. I am not so sure this one would have a lot of impact. I would expect Greens numbers to become a bit worse and DJJ a bit better, but overall team result very similar.