Expectations for 23/24 season

[mvossman]

Odds are also a lot of them will not happen  Mavs biggest problems last season were defense, rebounding and lack of two-way players. I don't think Mavs fundamentally addressed those issues. Not unless (until) guys with potential develop. A bit more details:
- one of Mavs biggest problems last season was rebounding. Mavs are still positionally small, especially at PF and C, and rebounding will remain a problem imho. These are average starter heights in the league: PG 6-3 (Irving 6-2), SG 6-5 (Green and THJ 6-5), SF 6-7 (Luka 6-7), PF 6-8 (GW 6-6), C 6-11 (Powell, Maxi and Holmes 6-10). 
- second problem was Mavs defense. Mavs made very few changes in the top ten of rotation. GW replaced Bullock in the starting line-up and Exum/Holmes replaced Wood and whoever was back-up guard last season in the second unit. The changes were mostly in the deep bench, which basically plays only when injuries happen. Sure, what looks like a deeper team will come handy when injuries happen. But none of the new guys can be considered as all-nba defense guy. That is why I don't think Mavs did enough to hope the defense would be drastically better. Not to mention very questionable coaching schemes with plenty of data from different environments that they don't really work.
- I see Curry fit on this team only without Luka and Irving as you can't play him next to any of them and hope for any kind of defense. So, a very limited role
- injuries happen. You can't hope there will be nothing. Especially since Mavs have several players with long history of unavailability. So, even if Maxi stays healthy, there is great possibility that one or more of the other guys will be out at different times of season
- I don't think Mavs really solved the 3rd PG situation, especially from the point of offense creation. Despite encouraging Exum World cup, I didn't see much of creation in his play. Unfortunately this is a very important role, since Luka and Irving both do miss several games each season. Green World cup and Hardy summer league were not encouraging. The only player with theoretic two-way potential (meaning he can play defense and create to an extent on offense) is Green. I see GW more or less as a spot-up shooter.

Based on this my expecations for this season are low (play-in at best) and I will be glad if I will be proven wrong. But, I will not be holding the players accountable if results are not there. No matter how they look on the court.

Also to note: Luka-Irving team last season was bad, one of worse in the league. They were far from a play-in level team. I think team will be better, but the starting position is really low and where they need to improve to is much higher. A lot of things will need to go right for a substantial improvement. What I do hope for is a decent start and some positive vibes around the team. I hated the negativity in the community last season.

You don't need all of those things to happen to be significantly better, just some of them.

The defense on this team improved a ton.  Williams is not replacing Bullock, he is replacing Dorian, who was either hurt, played poorly or traded during the season.  We finished the season without a legit power forward.  He will be a huge impact to defense, and the guys behind him (Omax and DJJ) bring defensive depth that we have sorely missed.  Also, any minute we are replacing Wood and McGee is a huge boost to the defense.  This was one of the worst defenses in the league last year.  They look more like an average defense to me right now.

As for 3rd point guard, Exum looks like a much better option than anything we had last year.  As to lack of creation, we can pair him with Hardy.  Exum runs the point and Hardy plays 6th man offensive creator role.  That tandom migh work well enough that we don't have to stagger Luka/Kyrie but we shall see.

Curry has played next to Luka and Kyrie without catastrophic results in the past.  You can make an argument that you don't want all three on the court together, but against second units we can get away with Curry playing with either one of them.

Injuries do happen, which is why I'm glad this is the deepest team I can ever remember them having.