TRADE: Beal+ etc. to PHX | CP3+Shamet+6 2nds+4frp swaps to WAS

[omahen]

Now, regarding Ayton destinations. After this trade, PHX is really limited in the deals they can theoretically make. I'm not a super expert on the 2nd apron yet, but I assume SnT's (except in really limited cases) will be unavailable for them this summer given how close they're going to be to 179 mil in salaries. I said in my previous post I think for a team to trade for Ayton they have to satisfy 3 "rules" which are: 

1) They are vying for Ayton and need a starting center. 2) Can provide 2-3 role players that make sense. 3) Contracts are low enough to actually save PHX some money in the long run.

If we believe the rumors (past and present), we can conjure up a list of: Indiana, Dallas, Charlotte, Chicago, and Portland.

Indiana
Of these teams, I think we can safely rule out Indiana. After they've given Turner an extension, and apparently are all in on a OG Anunoby chase, I don't see the interest for them. Unless they really like Ayton a lot more than Turner, then there's the motive. I just can't see it. Especially since Turner's production is similar to Ayton's and will be almost 35% cheaper. But just to be fair, they do have the contracts to make it work. They have loads of combinations. Hield+Theis. Theis+McConnell+Nesmith. And of course, Turner+Hield.

All these packages blow the Mavs out of the water. But I don't think IND satisfies rule 1. Thus I'm striking them off the list. 

Charlotte: 

Charlotte is an interesting case. Lots of things are happening there with Jordan is selling the team, getting the #2 pick, and they may (or may not) be bringing back Bridges. They also satisfy rule 1 and rule 2 imo. They have lots of combinations of contracts that get them to Ayton money. Rozier or Hayward would have to be included to make the money work. To round it out (depending on who's the foundation between Hayward/Roizer) Hornets would have to add 1-2 of Bouknight/Martin/Richards/Williams/Jones. Does Hayward+Bouknight get PHX motivated? Is this a better package than the Mavs best (realistic) package of THJ+Bullock+McGee? Rozier's contract kind of violates rule 3 imo. It'd be about 10 mil less than Ayton, and would seriously make cost cutting tricky. Further, does Rozier make sense on a team full of pure scorers? There's enough here to not immediately brush past it. There's also enough maybes for me to be doubtful (I didn't even mention Mark Williams waiting to breakout).


Chicago: 

For Chicago, they are ready to move on from Vucevic and are possibly trying to rebuild so that satisfies rule 1. There was a lot of smoke in Demar trades to LA last season. We've already seen rumors of them shopping Lavine around. Neither of those make sense in PHX, nor do those deals satisfy rule 2. For contracts, CHI to make the money work would have to be centered around a Caruso+Pat Williams core with 2-3 "the other guys" in Drummond/DJJr/Carlik Jones/Siminovic. My question is...why in the world would Chicago do that? Caruso and Williams as assets are worth way more than just Ayton. Especially if they're trying to rebuild. That turns to the other idea of using PHX as a dumping ground for Lonzo Ball who might have to medically retire. That makes it where it could just be Ball+"the other guys" and it's a clean swap. But that doesn't help PHX nearly enough.

For that, I think Chicago is doubtful. Caruso is too valuable for just Ayton. Unless they figure out a complicated 3-team SnT deal with the Lakers where DeRozan goes to LA, D'Lo (and others)+Ayton to Chicago, and Caruso+Williams+The others to PHX. 


Portland: 

I don't know what to make of Portland. Are they trading Dame? Are they rebuilding? Are they changing their mind every other hour? A lot depends on what Portland decides for the future. If they decide to go all in for 1 final run with Dame, is Ayton the guy that puts them over the top? Would he even be the first priority given Draymond is a FA and the smoke has been there for a long time? 

In both cases, for the contracts to work, the deal has to be centered around Nurkic+Little+Knox. It satisfies all the rules too. Again I struggle to see how this deal is any better than THJ+Bullock+McGee. You can also make an argument that Bertans+Bullock+McGee is a better deal too just given the S/W flexibility Bertans offers when it comes to filling out the rest of the roster and staying as close as possible to under 179 mil. 

I don't see Portland dangling the #3 pick at all in any Ayton scenario. If they were to rebuild, I think it's less likely they make a trade for Ayton given his contract and that they have Nurkic for half as much that they just signed an extension to. However, the deal is there. So Portland is a contender.


Of course there are definitely other teams that never made it through the rumor mill. I can also rule out: DEN/SAS/PHI/CLE/NYK/MIA/SAC/LAL/NOP/OKC/UTA/LAC/MIN/DET/WAS/BOS as they already have centers that are better/cost effective. 

That leaves: ORL/MEM/GSW/HOU/ATL/BRK/ and sneaky pick MIL as other options.

Good overview. As far as Chicago, I have only seen rumors they want to extend Vucevic, so I don't think they are a partner.

Imho, OKC is a team to watch. I don't think they have their centre yet, Holmgren is more of a PF. They will have plenty of cap space in July, so they could just send a bunch of guys on rookie contracts to Phoenix with a cheap vet or two (Williams, Dort). They also have half of league picks for next 73 years. Ayton could make a lot of sense there and they can afford his contract.

I wouldn't totally rule out Boston. Word is, they are willing to move Brogdon and they do need front court help. Brogdon + Robert Williams is a contract match. 

I don't really see Orlando or Houston in the mix. They have decent young centers on good contracts, not sure they would see Ayton as an upgrade. 

BKN has Claxton and bloated payrol. I am not sure they would like to add Ayton. But could be an option.

GSW could go Ayton instead of Poole (lets say Poole+Looney for Ayton), but I don't really see much sense here. 

Atlanta has a bunch of big contracts. But similar to GSW, trading big contracts for big contracts doesn't really solve anyones issues. 

Who knows what would Memphis want. They have Adams, but Ayton could be considered as an upgrade. I would throw NOP with Valanciunas in the same mold.