11-22-2022, 06:35 PM
1 I don't like the Brunson outcome at all -- I feel like he's a MAJOR asset who got away.
2 I think "willingness to spend" and "cap planning" were major factors in the outcome.
3 I think there were other choices that COULD have been made along the way, that would have certainly led to a different outcome.
4 I think the reason they made some of the choices was prudence, but some was also just cheapness imo.
BUT -- I'm not convinced those choices were as obvious at the time, or as predictable, or as rational, or even as egregious to the future, as they became in hindsight.
For example, focusing on the initial contract, part of the equation from the outset must have been the combo of being cautious (not getting burned on a bad deal to a draftee) and perhaps not expecting to keep Brunson for the long term (using the assumption that Luka would outplay him and Brunson couldn't ever be a starter here). Having him locked up for 4 years at the minimum salary then becomes much preferable to 3 years at the minimum followed by some sort of big jump in cost or walkaway.
They may have also figured that, if he somehow becomes an outlier talent for a 6-footer, having Bird Rights should protect them where they will get value back in return (it's super rare that a team has near-max cap room AND the player wants to go there).
BUT MOST SIGNIFICANTLY - they may have weighed the reality that RFA doesn't protect you from an offer you find too rich for your blood. And indeed, I would argue THIS is really the bottom line of what happened, that RFA wouldn't have mattered anyhow because the Mavs did not want to pay that for Brunson. (That was a big evaluation mistake imo. We will see.)
As for whether the Mavs could have signed him to a 55M contract at a time when he would have accepted it, I am skeptical that such a window really existed. He wasn't a 55M player at the beginning, and there were serious doubts he was even a keeper. I think he developed his high value very late, and so close to free agency that he was going to inevitably roll the dice. The addition of SD that freed his game, and the games vs UT without Luka, made him a huge pile of money because he showed potential to be way more than a useful 2nd banana.
2 I think "willingness to spend" and "cap planning" were major factors in the outcome.
3 I think there were other choices that COULD have been made along the way, that would have certainly led to a different outcome.
4 I think the reason they made some of the choices was prudence, but some was also just cheapness imo.
BUT -- I'm not convinced those choices were as obvious at the time, or as predictable, or as rational, or even as egregious to the future, as they became in hindsight.
For example, focusing on the initial contract, part of the equation from the outset must have been the combo of being cautious (not getting burned on a bad deal to a draftee) and perhaps not expecting to keep Brunson for the long term (using the assumption that Luka would outplay him and Brunson couldn't ever be a starter here). Having him locked up for 4 years at the minimum salary then becomes much preferable to 3 years at the minimum followed by some sort of big jump in cost or walkaway.
They may have also figured that, if he somehow becomes an outlier talent for a 6-footer, having Bird Rights should protect them where they will get value back in return (it's super rare that a team has near-max cap room AND the player wants to go there).
BUT MOST SIGNIFICANTLY - they may have weighed the reality that RFA doesn't protect you from an offer you find too rich for your blood. And indeed, I would argue THIS is really the bottom line of what happened, that RFA wouldn't have mattered anyhow because the Mavs did not want to pay that for Brunson. (That was a big evaluation mistake imo. We will see.)
As for whether the Mavs could have signed him to a 55M contract at a time when he would have accepted it, I am skeptical that such a window really existed. He wasn't a 55M player at the beginning, and there were serious doubts he was even a keeper. I think he developed his high value very late, and so close to free agency that he was going to inevitably roll the dice. The addition of SD that freed his game, and the games vs UT without Luka, made him a huge pile of money because he showed potential to be way more than a useful 2nd banana.
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