Bucks game got folks' attention

[SleepingHero]

There are issues with some of your comparables.  Noel isn't a starter and Poeltl and Zubac will get paid soon.  Their last contracts were held down by restricted free agency.  If you focus on more recent signings of UFA's, 33 year old Horford got four years at a $27mm average in 19.  31 year old Brook Lopez got four years at a $13mm average in 19.  Non-starting 31 year old Ibaka got two years at a $9.5mm average in 20.  Non-starting 29 year old Theis got four years at an average of $8.9mm in 21 and non-starting 29 year old Favors got three years at a $9.7mm average in 20.  Non-starting 27 year old Noel got three years at a $9.2mm average in 21.  Holmes got an $11.4mm average for four years in 21.   

Looking at that list, if Powell were free right now, he'd get more than any of Ibaka, Theis, Favors and Noel.  Holmes is probably the best comp and I'd agree Powell wouldn't get any more than Lopez.  The injury is a non-factor as he's recovered fully and playing as well as he ever has.  Age isn't typically an issue for dollars as we see all of the time.  The way teams deal with age is years.

Interesting. I mean the centers don't get paid narrative namely stems from that good teams don't overpay for centers unless they're all-stars. Holmes is a perfect recent example of that. But to be fair that philosophy also extends to every position, as overpaying anywhere is a mistake. In any case it doesn't really matter. 

The examples you list either are special cases or objective examples of bad contracts, which should further drive home the point that Powell either won't (or SHOULDN'T) be getting a raise next contract. 

Noel WAS starting for the Knicks the season he got his contract (41 starts in 64 games, 24mpg) and proved to be a valuable piece helping lead the Knicks to a 4th seed with a stifling interior presence.
Poeltl, I agree was hindered by RFA, but he also didn't have any buzz. His lack of market led him to taking a small prove it deal, thus comparing him in this situation to Powell is out of place. 
Zubac is a wait and see. So far his play has been enough to get a raise in that next tier of 12+mil, but a lot can happen in a year (injuries etc.) so I'm reserving judgment. And that's before even mentioning that Zubac is 6 years younger than Powell. 

Now to the special cases:

Horford's contract was seen as a complete overpay at the time and is still considered one of the worst contracts in the league (with it's main value coming from it's non-guarantee in its last year). Philly had to pay OKC to ship him off. We shouldn't be propping up the train of thought that led Philly to giving Horford that contract  if we want to seriously compete for a championship. 

Lopez was given an extension namely because MIL had no reason to let him walk. Either they lose him for nothing or they keep their championship core so it's a special case scenario. If the Mavs were to win the championship in the next two years I wouldn't be shocked (nor that mad because it means he was doing something right) if Powell got extended at 10+mil. 

Ibaka 2 years ago was a better player than Powell has ever been, and the contract he signed at that point was seen as a discount to ring chase as he signed it shortly after Kawhi signed. Their situations aren't perfect comparisons in any case, as Ibaka has largely been injury bitten after turning 30 and should make us wary committing long term money to a non all-star big post 30 years old. 

Theis is a great comparison. However, his average value of 8.9 mil is almost right on the money to my suggestion of 8-8.5 mil a year for Powell. Theis also benefits from being 2 years younger than Powell and being 28 at the time of signing his contract, versus the 32 years old Powell will be next year. 

Looking at that list, if Powell were free right now, he'd get more than any of Ibaka, Theis, Favors and Noel.  Holmes is probably the best comp and I'd agree Powell wouldn't get any more than Lopez.  The injury is a non-factor as he's recovered fully and playing as well as he ever has.  Age isn't typically an issue for dollars as we see all of the time.  The way teams deal with age is years.

If you're Powell and this is likely your last long term contract, do you think it's more likely he'd accept 2 years at 20 mil or 3 years at 24 mil? I see no benefit at the shorter contract other than him not wanting to take a step back on the money-per-year. 

But hey, at the end of writing this wall of text I'm reminded that the Mavs always bid against themselves. Which means you're probably right and Powell is about to be handed a 4 year 40 mil contract next year at age 32.