Bucks game got folks' attention

[DanSchwartzgan]

An aside, are you really confident in him getting paid 10+mil again? 

He'll be 31 with a previous achilles tear playing probably the least valued position in the game today (in that you're either a star getting 20+mil or you're getting vet min). You can see this plain as day if you go to Spotrac and sort by contracts for centers. 10th highest paid center in the league is Myles Turner (20 mil next season). 11th-15th spots the median yearly value is 15 mil (with the guys being Capela, Adams, JV, Brook Lopez and WCJr). 

With 16-20, we're in MLE territory with Timelord, Nurkic and Holmes (median yearly value ~12mil) 

All of these guys save Lopez are younger and better than Powell right now, with no serious injury history. 

Just off of current production, age and future production I'd put Powell's next contract in the 3 years 24-26mil range (8-8.5 mil a year and probably descending as a trade chip). Right in line with guys like Nerlens Noel, Poeltl, and Zubac. Even then you can argue that's an overpay.

Yes I do.  If he were extension eligible, I'd guarantee it, but a year is a long time to wait for the answer and a lot can change between now and then.

Spotrac also shows that the average center actually makes more than the average SF or SG.  So, I'm not sure about this "centers don't get paid" narrative.  We just spent half a page discussing how Powell is having his best year as a pro.  He's the starting center for one of the best teams in the league and a vital running partner for the star of said team.  I can't conceive of why he would take a pay cut at all frankly.

There are issues with some of your comparables.  Noel isn't a starter and Poeltl and Zubac will get paid soon.  Their last contracts were held down by restricted free agency.  If you focus on more recent signings of UFA's, 33 year old Horford got four years at a $27mm average in 19.  31 year old Brook Lopez got four years at a $13mm average in 19.  Non-starting 31 year old Ibaka got two years at a $9.5mm average in 20.  Non-starting 29 year old Theis got four years at an average of $8.9mm in 21 and non-starting 29 year old Favors got three years at a $9.7mm average in 20.  Non-starting 27 year old Noel got three years at a $9.2mm average in 21.  Holmes got an $11.4mm average for four years in 21.   

Looking at that list, if Powell were free right now, he'd get more than any of Ibaka, Theis, Favors and Noel.  Holmes is probably the best comp and I'd agree Powell wouldn't get any more than Lopez.  The injury is a non-factor as he's recovered fully and playing as well as he ever has.  Age isn't typically an issue for dollars as we see all of the time.  The way teams deal with age is years.

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Good stuff.  I think the one argument you could make in favor of this season's Powell is that he is doing this as a starter instead of 2019 when he was mostly terrorizing opposing benches.  

 Very reasonable IMHO.