(12-20-2021, 10:15 AM)omahen Wrote: I wanted to get back to this post, as you have put so much thought into it.
I think Mavs have several burning questions to answer in the next short term period as we can assume they have a three years window to finalize a contending roster. Start of the new administration is certainly not encouraging. As Mavs have basically same roster for three years, there is really very little need for long term observations. We know what we have.
Yeah, they might be using this time to test out Kidd's schemes and pinpoint what pieces they need, but it's probably pretty clear by now that the roster as is probably can't take them to the next level.
Defense
First of all it would be wise to admit that this roster is not a small move away from contending, especially not after Kidd entered the picture and the schemes he wants to play. I totally understand GM will not say this publicly, but I hope they have stopped fooling themselves.
I agree they're not one small move away from contending, but I'm not convinced at this stage that the best move is to dispose of everyone over 22 in a fire sale (realize you didn't say it was). It seems like a well-managed organization could accomplish a step up in a less disruptive way, especially with Luka.
Lets first have a look at defense. I think we can agree the team will be build around Luka. He has his limitations on defense so you have to adjust accordingly. I think Mavs were totally correct in their summer statements you have to put long and switchable defenders around him. Problem is that what they actually did is basically the exact opposite. Instead of long switchable defenders they gave him a center, a center playing PF and being hidden on worst opposing perimeter player (once reserved for Luka) and THJ (not really a good defender). There is plenty of data from last 2 years that shows how Luka-KP-THJ equals bad defense.
I am not denying this is so (I actually haven't checked), but if it is so, it borders on sports-tragicomic. If KP is supposed to be a superstar big man, he should be able to hold his own defensively, at the very least, and preferably be a substantial plus.
In addition to the trio discussed above, Mavs need to solve the Brunson "puzzle". He is playing great on offense, but is nothing special on defense. He will certainly be targeted in playoffs due to his size. This is especially problematic if he is played next to the trio above as little help can be expected from them. The sample size of all of them playing together from last two seasons is small but not really encouraging. Assuming Brunson will cost around 15 mil per year, Mavs would have over 30 mil locked in two players coming from the bench.
I am not sure there really is a solution to the Brunson puzzle, but maybe there is. He wasn't playable against the Clippers, and there every reason to suspect that will be the case again, assuming the Mavs make the playoffs. He's too small/unathletic to best a defense concentrated on stopping him, and he's a definite liability defensively. I think he's a great regular season piece, maybe an okay backup for the playoffs, depending on the matchup. I don't think there's any basis for paying him big bucks if he's really going to come off the bench, unless it's in a true sixth-man role, a la Jason Terry.
In my opinion, Mavs will need to trade at least one of THJ or KP to hope having decent defense.
Such a sad, sad statement.
Brunson is still a puzzle.
Offense
On the offensive side the lack of talent has never been so obvious as this year. Mavs can get offense to respectable level but then defense suffers. It seems like 13 out of 15 players can't put it on the floor with hope of resulting in a reasonable outcome. Luka is literally the only player that requires special attention from more than one opponent defender. Brunson is good but can be limited (see yesterday). KP can be defended perfectly well with a more or less random wing as his ability to exploit his size is totally limited. KP is good if he recieves the ball very deep in the paint shooting 68 % from less than 5 feet. When he is further away from the basket it is a disaster. 37 % from 5-9 feet away, 38 % 10-14 feet and so on. All KP post ups more than 5 feet away are a bad possession. Perhaps he is happy, but the result is bad.
Yeah, pretty much.
While Wright and JRich could put it on the floor at least to some extent, Bullock has zero ability. I think there are only so many DFS/Bullock types a starting line-up can afford. If Mavs would have three players capable of putting it on the floor together with DFS and Bullock it could work, but for some reason Mavs are playing Powell and KP with them.
Well, if KP is staying here, he has to be prioritized over DFS/Bullock, in the sense that the role players need to complement KP, not the other way around. Still, I get your point.
I won't even go into how zero sense makes playing Powell (or any other non shooting center) in a system where KP wants to post up on offense. Mavs insisting on this line-up is getting beyond ridiculous. I don't even blame Powell, this one is on the coaching staff.
This is just freaking ridiculous (the situation, not your point), and I really don't know why they are continuing to run this.
Conclusion
Mavs need to start working as the clock is ticking. Last three years have been a disaster from team building perspective. Whatever strategy Mavs decide to go for it would have to be extremely creative and of course successful. No more room for mistakes. At this point, if a good deal is not to be reached by TDL, I would actually consider a one year tank. Sit Luka for whatever reason, trade a couple of players for assets and hope for a top 5 pick. Who knows, perhaps Mavs are already doing that. The team desperately needs a significant talent infusion.
At the moment, this team looks like such a mess from so many standpoints (owner/front office/coach/disappointing players) that I'm not even sure a talent infusion will do it. But I think I'm just in a funk because with COVID and the injuries and all, I don't see a quick or straightforward way out of this. This team isn't a contender, but they're not devoid of talent, and they should be better than they are. Maybe they will be.
Thanks for the thoughts.
P.S. This isn't substantive, but I compliment you on the presentation. I have long thought that you made a lot of good points, and that they might get a little more attention if they were paragraphed and formatted so as to be a little easier to read. Great job! (Hope I am not being presumptuous.)