(09-01-2021, 01:21 PM)omahen Wrote: Interesting question. I will take it seriously.
It seems to me Luka finds open guys and creates good looks for them - that is my hypothesis. What I actually don't really know (as I don't follow the rest of teams so much), is what kind of looks certain players had before coming to Dallas. I am assuming Luka will be creating better looks. Than of course there is also opponent defense. For example - if Mavs play a non shooting center, the defense will likely cover the three shooters while guy guarding that center will help in the paint. But lets try to find data to support the hypothesis. I don't have time to go through everything, but perhaps the points listed below will open the debate.
In theory wide open shots should increase accuracy of the shooters. Since Luka is Dallas main ballhandler I will assume (simplify) most team results are a consequence of his actions, which is of course not entirely true. Dallas as a team was 11th in the league with 17.5 wide open three pointers attempted last season. There were 10 better teams than us but Dallas was still considerably better than number 30 SA with 12 or (for example) number 20 NY with 15 such attempts per game. I don't think this number alone could confirm my hypothesis, we have to get more.
Mavs were just 22nd in the league in the accuracy of those wide open shots, hitting 37 % of them. That is bad and below the percentage of team best shooters. Mavs actually scored 36,9 % (so basically same percentage as in wide open shots) of open three pointer. So based on this data we could say that being more open didn't help Dallas shooters overall. That is of course very strange, because league as a whole is shooting much better when wide open.
So did Mavs create open looks for bad shooters only? I doesn't look so, good shooters got fair amount of open looks:
- THJ had 1,9 such shots per game (shooting them at 38,8 %, worse than his overall average),
- DFS had 4,2 such shots per game (vast majority of his three pointers),
- Maxi had 3,4 (basically all his three pointers),
- KP had 3 per game also shooting them a bit below his overall average,
- Brunson had 1,7 such shots and converted 41 % of them (a bit above his overall average)
- Luka himself took 1,5 wide open three pointers per game hitting 37 % of them
So Mavs best shooters shot more than 15 wide open shots per game, but not really hitting them at better percentage than what are supposed to be more difficult shots. What makes Mavs so different from rest of league in this regard? Is that because of Luka?I don't have an answer
41 % of JRich 3pt shots in Dallas were wide open (1,9 per game). His accuracy was miserable at 32 %. In Philly he shot 1,5 wide open three pointers per game which was 33 % of all of his three pointers. Accuracy also miserable 32 %. However in his last season in Miami, JRich was shooting 2,5 wide open threes per game which was 40 % of his three pointers. He converted good 42 % of them. Another season back and he shot 2 wide open three pointers per game converting 40 % of them. Again - what was so different?
50 % of KP three pointers were wide open last season. He converted 37 % of them. In 2017-2018 season in NY 48 % of his three pointers were wide open (2,3 per game), but he converted 46 % of them. So volume got up but accuracy dumped.
Based on the data I listed I can't confirm the hypothesis. Of course there are many more possible data to check, so I also can't say the hypothesis is wrong.
The Mavs took a good amount of their threes way behind the threepoint line. (At least KP, Luka and THJ) That might make them "wide open" but not necessarily "better" shots.
Dodo is way better from the corners, which are less "open" normally.
I don't think the "wide open thing" helps us with the quality of a shot. There is much more like: timing, how good does a passer hit a shooters shooting pocket, which player does he pass at what spot, who is defending a player.
Only exception: Maxis release is kinda so much better if slow, that he needs at least a really open shot to let it fly.