09-17-2021, 11:10 AM
MMB 9/15. Suggestions for Improving Luka's Efficiency
Mavs Moneyball has a new piece on Luka. Specifically, what can be done to improve his efficiency. The article is worth taking a look at, but it’s long, so here is a brief summary for those who don’t have the time. —
Luka’s shooting is one of the few aspects of his game standing between him and an MVP award (along with conditioning, defense, and free-throw shooting).
The statistics show that Luka is actually a better shooter than the numbers would indicate, but that his three-point shooting, particularly in the fourth quarter, is really dragging him down. The problem appears to be that he is taking too many extremely difficult shots. Luka leads the league in unassisted points scored by a wide margin. But he pays a price for this high amount of self-creation, in terms of efficiency.
Last season, Luka’s efficiency from beyond the arc cratered in fourth quarters, along with the team’s offense as a whole. There were far too many times when the Mavs walked the ball slowly up the court, did not run any effective action, and relied on Luka for a bailout three. They led the league in three-point shots taken with 4 or fewer seconds left on the clock. Luka attempted most of those.
The common explanation for Luka’s woes in the fourth quarter is lack of conditioning, and there is some truth in that. However, film analysis shows that something more is at play. Of his three-pointers in the fourth quarter, he shot 40% as the ball-handler in a PNR, 35% on spot-ups, and an atrocious 17% in isolations. How does Luka get easier shots?
He does much better when even a simple screen is set, as that gives him a split-second advantage, or a mismatch, for a less contested shot. When the Mavs can’t get anything out of their action, then Luka tries to bail them out with a late-clock isolation play. These shots tend to be next-level difficult. They are dramatic when he makes them, but he doesn’t actually complete very many.
The fourth-quarter drop-off happened in the playoffs as well. There is no doubt that Luka needs help, but the front office failed to get him a secondary creator. So, we don’t know if Luka really wants to be this ball-dominant, or if he only plays that way because he has to. Dragic might provide a solution if he is eventually signed.
In the absence of another creator, the improvement will have to come from within. The Mavericks have enough to be a good regular-season team. But, to advance further, they will have to squeeze more juice out of the current roster.
“Maybe Kidd can get the Mavericks to play faster and less deliberately in the fourth quarter. Get in early offense sets faster, so that a spread pick and roll with ten seconds left on the clock is not the only option. Because if that is the primary action and things don’t work out, we know what happens next. Another end of clock step-back three.”
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2021/9/15/...th-quarter
There is an accompanying podcast.
Mavs Moneyball has a new piece on Luka. Specifically, what can be done to improve his efficiency. The article is worth taking a look at, but it’s long, so here is a brief summary for those who don’t have the time. —
Luka’s shooting is one of the few aspects of his game standing between him and an MVP award (along with conditioning, defense, and free-throw shooting).
The statistics show that Luka is actually a better shooter than the numbers would indicate, but that his three-point shooting, particularly in the fourth quarter, is really dragging him down. The problem appears to be that he is taking too many extremely difficult shots. Luka leads the league in unassisted points scored by a wide margin. But he pays a price for this high amount of self-creation, in terms of efficiency.
Last season, Luka’s efficiency from beyond the arc cratered in fourth quarters, along with the team’s offense as a whole. There were far too many times when the Mavs walked the ball slowly up the court, did not run any effective action, and relied on Luka for a bailout three. They led the league in three-point shots taken with 4 or fewer seconds left on the clock. Luka attempted most of those.
The common explanation for Luka’s woes in the fourth quarter is lack of conditioning, and there is some truth in that. However, film analysis shows that something more is at play. Of his three-pointers in the fourth quarter, he shot 40% as the ball-handler in a PNR, 35% on spot-ups, and an atrocious 17% in isolations. How does Luka get easier shots?
He does much better when even a simple screen is set, as that gives him a split-second advantage, or a mismatch, for a less contested shot. When the Mavs can’t get anything out of their action, then Luka tries to bail them out with a late-clock isolation play. These shots tend to be next-level difficult. They are dramatic when he makes them, but he doesn’t actually complete very many.
The fourth-quarter drop-off happened in the playoffs as well. There is no doubt that Luka needs help, but the front office failed to get him a secondary creator. So, we don’t know if Luka really wants to be this ball-dominant, or if he only plays that way because he has to. Dragic might provide a solution if he is eventually signed.
In the absence of another creator, the improvement will have to come from within. The Mavericks have enough to be a good regular-season team. But, to advance further, they will have to squeeze more juice out of the current roster.
“Maybe Kidd can get the Mavericks to play faster and less deliberately in the fourth quarter. Get in early offense sets faster, so that a spread pick and roll with ten seconds left on the clock is not the only option. Because if that is the primary action and things don’t work out, we know what happens next. Another end of clock step-back three.”
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2021/9/15/...th-quarter
There is an accompanying podcast.
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