Jalen 'Can He Play Alongside Luka?' Brunson

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think the issue is starting.  It is getting Brunson up to the "right' number of MPG vs. the current 23.7.  This is basically what we've been running out there as an 8 man rotation and a simple way of looking at minutes per game for each if Brunson were to get 30:

PG/SG:  Luka 36, JRich 30, Brunson 30 (basically any two at a time)

SF:  DFS 18, THJ 30 

PF:  Maxi 30, DFS 18

C:   KP 32, Dwight Cauley Stein 16

There are two things that keep Brunson from those extra minutes...the nightly Burke cameo and THJ taking about 4 minutes at SG every night.  Right now, the issue with that is Richardson hasn't found a comfortable place in the lineup.  He's only a slight negative in his time with Luka at -1.5.  But, he's a moderate net negative next to Brunson at -3.7 and a big negative next to THJ and KP at -8.1 and -8.7 respectively.

I'm not panicking (yet), and I was fully on board with the trade.  But, if someone came calling with an upgrade at JRich's position, I'm not saying no either.

[KillerLeft]

...not to mention royally pissing off his and Luka's agent...

I'm almost to the point where I don't care. Dude has just not seemed to be a good fit here, to me. I'm not giving up, but I also won't cry if he's the guy who moves at the deadline. It's like having a Delon Wright that you can't bench.

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I'm not panicking (yet), and I was fully on board with the trade.  But, if someone came calling with an upgrade at JRich's position, I'm not saying no either.

This. The honeymoon phase hasn't worn off for some, which is fine, but I'm honestly not even that impressed with his defense, so far.

[ItsGoTime]

This. The honeymoon phase hasn't worn off for some, which is fine, but I'm honestly not even that impressed with his defense, so far.

Similar to KP for me. There are trades that I'd do at this point, but I still think his defense is something that NEEDs to be infectious to this team. Can't trade him and get yet another offense first guy. I think that tilts the scale too far the other way and defense goes back to where it was last year.

Look, defense "uglies" up the game, it's not as fun to watch a team score less and get scored on less. It's only an essential element to have in a championship team. If we're talking about the long term, all these guys who came having offense first backgrounds are not going to hold eachother accountable throughout the game, it's the guys with a propensity to talk loudly that have a defense first mentality. Those are the JYD types I've talked about, but you can't just have just 1 JYD and a bunch of offense first guys on the team either.

[Fuerza1]

Haters gon' say it's fake.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuFEBqeXAAMenCX?format=jpg&name=large

[ClutchDirk]

I'm enjoying the contribution Brunson has been giving us lately...I really hope we can retain him long term...

[embellisher]

I'm enjoying the contribution Brunson has been giving us lately...I really hope we can retain him long term...

Or at least not lose him for nothing.

[Scott41theMavs]

Or at least not lose him for nothing.

I think that he hasn't hit his peak yet, which means that we're not going to get value for him if we trade him now. The only way I see for us to come out of the Brunson situation looking anything less than foolish is if 1) we convince him to re-sign cheap for one more year, which would hopefully give us Bird rights and a nice 2022 payday, or 2) trade him in conjunction with KP for two very-good-to-great players who end up really being foundation pieces (or viably valuable trade pieces for a fitting second superstar) for a Luka-led contending team.

Brunson is an excellent player now. If he improves on D, I think he's going to be a top 50 player, which means worthy of a $20 mil or so a year contract. He's absolutely my second-favorite Mav right now.

[Jannemann2]

Don't know much about the cap, but isn't this Brunsons third year and thus wouldn't the Mavs already have bis Bird rights after this season?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Don't know much absolut the cap, but isn't this Brunsons third year and thus wouldn't the Mavs already have bis Bird rights after this season?

The somewhat unusual thing about Brunson is he has a super-cheap non-guaranteed 4th year next season.  If Dallas elects to pay him that amount, he is UFA the summer of 22 and we have no control.  One way of mitigating that is to give him an extension, but that is limited to 120% of the average salary or about $12 million.  We have examples of similar PG's making more than that.  So, probably not a solution.

Your post reminded me of another possible solution.  I need to look this up, but I think we could make Jalen free this summer by foregoing our option.  That would make Jalen RFA this summer with a small hold and we can pay him whatever we want.  This doesn't happen often (four year deals for 2nd rounders aren't the norm).  Houston and Chandler Parsons went through this back in 2014.  The choice was to pay him his small non-guaranteed 4th year and probably lose him the next season as a UFA.  Or, Houston could make him RFA that summer and presumably retain him after doing a bunch of other free agent signings.  We all know how that worked out.

That would potentially solve the 22 UFA issue.  It would just cost Cuban some extra money in the 21-22 season.  As you point out, we don't have to have cap room in 21 to do this.  Brunson's cap hold it just a little bit more than his 2021 non-guaranteed salary.

[dirkfansince1998]

The somewhat unusual thing about Brunson is he has a super-cheap non-guaranteed 4th year next season.  If Dallas elects to pay him that amount, he is UFA the summer of 22 and we have no control.  One way of mitigating that is to give him an extension, but that is limited to 120% of the average salary or about $12 million.  We have examples of similar PG's making more than that.  So, probably not a solution.

Your post reminded me of another possible solution.  I need to look this up, but I think we could make Jalen free this summer by foregoing our option.  That would make Jalen RFA this summer with a small hold and we can pay him whatever we want.  This doesn't happen often (four year deals for 2nd rounders aren't the norm).  Houston and Chandler Parsons went through this back in 2014.  The choice was to pay him his small non-guaranteed 4th year and probably lose him the next season as a UFA.  Or, Houston could make him RFA that summer and presumably retain him after doing a bunch of other free agent signings.  We all know how that worked out.

That would potentially solve the 22 UFA issue.  It would just cost Cuban some extra money in the 21-22 season.  As you point out, we don't have to have cap room in 21 to do this.  Brunson's cap hold it just a little bit more than his 2021 non-guaranteed salary.

Question for the cap experts

the Larry Bird exception allows teams to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their own free agents, at an amount up to the maximum salary. To qualify as a Bird free agent, a player must have played three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent.

Why would the Mavs lose the bird rights? Even if Brunson is a UFA the Mavs should be able to pay him. He obviously could choose another team but money wouldn´t be the problem.
Isn´t that exactly what a lot of us are proposing for Richardson and THJ? Keep the cap hold and resign both of them in the offseason.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Question for the cap experts

Why would the Mavs lose the bird rights?  

No one said they would lose Bird rights.  The question is whether the team wants to avoid the risk of him getting to UFA status.

[Scott41theMavs]

No one said they would lose Bird rights.  The question is whether the team wants to avoid the risk of him getting to UFA status.

Yes. If he decided he wasn't playing enough or getting enough touches or didn't have the right role (cf. Jerami Grant), he could go where the grass is greener for the same or even slightly less money, and he's certainly not a guy you pay max money to in order to retain him because he's willing to play for less elsewhere.

[Kammrath]

The question with JB is this:

Does he want a bigger role somewhere where he isn't the GIANT shadow of Luka's usage?

[dirkfansince1998]

The question with JB is this:

Does he want a bigger role somewhere where he isn't the GIANT shadow of Luka's usage?

Good thing is that the Mavs still have some time to figure it out. Same for Brunson himself. Is he the next Monte Morris (great backup, situational starter) or can he be a legit starter on a playoff team.

[Kammrath]

Mavs still have some time to figure it out. Same for Brunson himself.

They do for sure, but I also think they are under a time crunch to know what they have on this roster before money starts to paint them in a corner. Ideally they would want to know about KP, JB, THJ, and JR (and their long term futures in DAL or not) by THIS summer. I am not suggesting they act in haste (nor do I think they will), but there is at least some level of urgency they should be feeling.

[Dahlsim]

No one said they would lose Bird rights.  The question is whether the team wants to avoid the risk of him getting to UFA status.

Brunson, ceiling?  Maybe, Chris Paul light, which would be pretty fantastic. 

[KillerLeft]

Brunson, ceiling?  Maybe, Chris Paul light, which would be pretty fantastic.

This would be amazing, and a fine solution to the "not enough playmaking" problem we've all been raving about for the past year. Let's hope.

[ItsGoTime]

Brunson, ceiling?  Maybe, Chris Paul light, which would be pretty fantastic. 

I think he's Derek Fisher, maybe a bit better at his perceived ceiling. That was a guy who played with high usage Kobe and found a role as a starter of a championship team.

[Dahlsim]

I think he's Derek Fisher, maybe a bit better at his perceived ceiling. That was a guy who played with high usage Kobe and found a role as a starter of a championship team.

I can see that too.  Chris Paul lite is maybe a bit of wishful projection on my part 

Fisher was a super clutch performer though, like really clutch. Not a low bar for Brunson either.

[Hypermav]

The Luka/Brunson draft looking pretty solid.