2026 NBA draft thread

[hakeemfaan]

That's the thing with this draft class. Even though everyone is saying how deep and generational this class is the unanimous consensus only seems to be around the top 3 guys.  Even Caleb is going 4 mainly based on his size. Are we overrating this class?

All the guards have some glaring fault or other.  None of them stand out in terms of Schmitz' glowing assessment of SGA where his main focus was how smooth his game was and his height + wingspan.  None of these guards have that complete package.  The closest could be Brown if his jumpshot pans out like folks think it will.  Everyone else has some strength but major fault as well.

If too long to watch, check out the final comments from the 8:00 min mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUCQ398C7nc

[mvossman]

Flemings has the same concerns around finishing.

He is also a little light on the positional side front as well.  It's interesting that the Locked on Mavs guys think they will pull the trigger if Wagler, Brown or Burries is available at 9, but will trade down if its only Acuff or Flemings left.  I don't know if it plays out that way, but I would really question if they pass on Flemings.

[KillerLeft]

He is also a little light on the positional side front as well.  It's interesting that the Locked on Mavs guys think they will pull the trigger if Wagler, Brown or Burries is available at 9, but will trade down if its only Acuff or Flemings left.  I don't know if it plays out that way, but I would really question if they pass on Flemings.

Yeah, same. I have disagreed more with Isaac this past week than I have the entire rest of the time I've checked in on that show.

[mvossman]

That's the thing with this draft class. Even though everyone is saying how deep and generational this class is the unanimous consensus only seems to be around the top 3 guys.  Even Caleb is going 4 mainly based on his size. Are we overrating this class?

All the guards have some glaring fault or other.  None of them stand out in terms of Schmitz' glowing assessment of SGA where his main focus was how smooth his game was and his height + wingspan.  None of these guards have that complete package.  The closest could be Brown if his jumpshot pans out like folks think it will.  Everyone else has some strength but major fault as well.

If too long to watch, check out the final comments from the 8:00 min mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUCQ398C7nc

I mean Peterson fits that description while also being an elite shooter.  I'm not saying he is going to turn into Shai, but I'm not sure there not being another Shai at 9 is a valid complaint with this draft.  

And Shai didn't turn into one of the best players in the NBA because of his height and wingspan.  If you look at his draft profile, he had a questionable shot, limited athleticism, too skinny, and was too aggressive with his passing.  His most common comp was Shaun Livingston.  I'm guessing there have been a lot of college players with Shai profile that did not turn into an elite offensive player.  And who knows, maybe Schmitz really likes some of these guards for different reasons than Shai.  Most of the complaints about Shai then sound a lot like the complaints about Wagler now.

[hakeemfaan]

I mean Peterson fits that description while also being an elite shooter.  I'm not saying he is going to turn into Shai, but I'm not sure there not being another Shai at 9 is a valid complaint with this draft.  

And Shai didn't turn into one of the best players in the NBA because of his height and wingspan.  If you look at his draft profile, he had a questionable shot, limited athleticism, too skinny, and was too aggressive with his passing.  His most common comp was Shaun Livingston.  I'm guessing there have been a lot of college players with Shai profile that did not turn into an elite offensive player.  And who knows, maybe Schmitz really likes some of these guards for different reasons than Shai.  Most of the complaints about Shai then sound a lot like the complaints about Wagler now.

I don’t see the comp at all with Wagler and SGA. Poor wingspan, will get hunted on defense , below average athleticism.  

None of that applies to SGA. Wagler has the outside shot though that SGA didn’t have. 

Also there is the other video on draft night where Schmitz on live TV says he feels the Clippers got the best guard in the draft. This was not just another pros and cons and potential upside discussion that applies to all prospects. There were specific reasons why Schmitz was so high on him and confident. Look at the 3:00 min mark

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ExKkIRTe-CU

[F Gump]

Fleming is most like SGA in this draft.

Um, no. In fact, he's just about the opposite.

SGA is positionally above-average in height (6-4.5) and has an EXTREMELY LONG wingspan (6-11.5) which gives him a huge advantage that he uses to his advantage on both ends of the court.

Flemings is positionally average in height (6-2.5) and has a very short wingspan (6-3.5).

If you are looking for a player who might be developed into the next SGA, the best candidate in this draft might be Cam Carr. But definitely NOT Flemings - he's just too small.

[Chicagojk]

Philon is JV Shai.  Not as big, not as athletic and obviously not as good.  Their movements are pretty similar though.

Just watch these one game highlights

https://youtu.be/T91FAeIdfeo?si=0v9IDPS2eh4nGE_1

https://youtu.be/sZAhFjnN3ok?si=bHI6Otsj5HIKUyYn

[windjc]

Um, no. In fact, he's just about the opposite.

SGA is positionally above-average in height (6-4.5) and has an EXTREMELY LONG wingspan (6-11.5) which gives him a huge advantage that he uses to his advantage on both ends of the court.

Flemings is positionally average in height (6-2.5) and has a very short wingspan (6-3.5).

If you are looking for a player who might be developed into the next SGA, the best candidate in this draft might be Cam Carr. But definitely NOT Flemings - he's just too small.

I didn’t say he was a SGA clone. Of course is smaller.  But he is also faster with a better assist to TO ratio.  But they are similar in their midrange game, non reliance on threes and overall style and defense. Flemings is the most like SGA right now. Sga isn’t MVP due to wingspan.

[hakeemfaan]

I didn’t say he was a SGA clone. Of course is smaller.  But he is also faster with a better assist to TO ratio.  But they are similar in their midrange game, non reliance on threes and overall style and defense. Flemings is the most like SGA right now. Sga isn’t MVP due to wingspan.

As someone else wrote, offensively, the SGA comp is Philon.  Yes Flemings and SGA rely a lot on the mid-range shot, but that's where the similarities end.  How they get to the mid range shot is also totally different.

Also, how do you separate the wingspan from what makes SGA who he is? He has a slightly slower release, but that height and wingspan probably help him a lot. It also helps him on defense.  It's not like just one thing makes a great player what he is. I've seen questions raised about whether Flemings can get his midrange working consistently among the trees in the NBA. So we can't say for sure that the wingspan won't matter until we see it won't matter once he is in the league.

Again, I'm not saying to move down. I've said a few times today that I don't want to move down. In my mind there is a tier difference between the guys slotted where the Mavs pick is at vs a 12 or below. I don't want to move to that next tier by sacrificing the 9th pick.

[mvossman]

I don’t see the comp at all with Wagler and SGA. Poor wingspan, will get hunted on defense , below average athleticism.  

None of that applies to SGA. Wagler has the outside shot though that SGA didn’t have. 

Also there is the other video on draft night where Schmitz on live TV says he feels the Clippers got the best guard in the draft. This was not just another pros and cons and potential upside discussion that applies to all prospects. There were specific reasons why Schmitz was so high on him and confident. Look at the 3:00 min mark

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ExKkIRTe-CU

Shai does not have elite athleticism and teams were worried about his lack of bulk.  The same concerns with Wagler.  When you hear Wagler's game described, the talk is similar to what you just heard from Schmitz, especially regarding feel for the game.  They both are described as "crafty".  The comp falls apart on the defensive end (which is a big part of the wingspan).  

I don't think Wagler is the next SGA, but that seems like a crazy high bar for a 9th pick in the draft.  I don't think Schmitz and company are going to be uninterested in players because they don't perfectly conform to the Shai template.  There are a lot of ways to skin a cat.

[mvossman]

Um, no. In fact, he's just about the opposite.

SGA is positionally above-average in height (6-4.5) and has an EXTREMELY LONG wingspan (6-11.5) which gives him a huge advantage that he uses to his advantage on both ends of the court.

Flemings is positionally average in height (6-2.5) and has a very short wingspan (6-3.5).

If you are looking for a player who might be developed into the next SGA, the best candidate in this draft might be Cam Carr. But definitely NOT Flemings - he's just too small.

Shai is so much more than his wingspan.  There are plenty of guys with huge wingspans that never amounted to anything in the NBA.  I agree that Flemings is a different kind of player than Shai, but there seems to be an almost hyperfocus on his wingspan on this board.

Cam Carr has very little similarities to Shai other than wingspan.  He is more athletic and more of a shooter, but he has not showed the handle, playmaking, processing, feel for the game or defense to suggest he will ever develop to anything close to Shai.  He is most likely going to be an off ball player, and if he does not figure out how to play defense he is going to be closer to Cam Thomas than Shai.

[Chicagojk]

Acuff defense

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comme...us_acuffs/

[Chicagojk]

Allen Graves staying in the draft.  I really have not looked at him.   Redshirt freshman who won freshman of year, 6th man of year and defensive player of the year in his conference.

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/2059329970845950037

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEC3MZMbR70

[Winter]

Allen Graves staying in the draft.  I really have not looked at him.   Redshirt freshman who won freshman of year, 6th man of year and defensive player of the year in his conference.

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/2059329970845950037

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEC3MZMbR70

I watched several of his videos earlier. He's kind of a poor man's Boozer. 

It's hard to know how his skills translate since the conference he was in was so weak and the competition poor. For instance, he has a good 3-point percentage but all of them are catch-and-shoot threes where literally no one is guarding him.

My guess is he's rotation player in the NBA, but his ceiling is a little cloudy to me.

[dirkfansince1998]

Allen Graves staying in the draft.  I really have not looked at him.   Redshirt freshman who won freshman of year, 6th man of year and defensive player of the year in his conference.

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/2059329970845950037

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEC3MZMbR70

Analytics darling. But there are some doubts. He is a great help/team defender but probably doesn't have the athleticism to guard multiple positions in the NBA. Combine numbers are brutal. At first glance his stock numbers look great but he actually has a negative stock/foul ratio.
And as Winter pointed out. We have to look at his role and the level of competition. He came off the bench for one of the most stacked teams in a weak conference.

Would still take him if he drops to #30. Best case comp is probably RoCo with better playmaking. Floor. Undersized stretch big.

[Chicagojk]

Just playing around:

Masai last pick in Toronto (If he was the one who pulled the trigger) was a young sophomore PF when people thought they needed backcourt depth.    
So would would that fit this year?  Philon (soph) or a PF?

[Chicagojk]

I don't think it happens but there is a world where Acuff makes it to 9.  The question is, would Dallas takes him?

For that to happen, the Nets would probably need to take a wing/big or Brown Jr.
The Kings would have to favor Flemings or Brown.  Reports are that they like Acuff, but I would not take anything seriously now.
If he reaches 8, the odds are probably against ATL taking him imo.

Of the three, I think Flemings is probably the likeliest of him, Acuff and Wagler being there at 9.  I think Wagler has the least likely of the three to be there at 9.

[Winter]

Just playing around:

Masai last pick in Toronto (If he was the one who pulled the trigger) was a young sophomore PF when people thought they needed backcourt depth.    
So would would that fit this year?  Philon (soph) or a PF?

Of course there's a lot of conditions, so impossible to say.... but if I was picking in the 12-20 range of the first, I take Morez Johnson over Philon. Then, I go after a veteran PG in a trade later. That's probably not what most people would do, but that's my pick.

If it was later in the 2026 first round, then maybe a wing or a PG as there's seems to be several.

[Winter]

I don't think it happens but there is a world where Acuff makes it to 9.  The question is, would Dallas takes him?

For that to happen, the Nets would probably need to take a wing/big or Brown Jr.
The Kings would have to favor Flemings or Brown.  Reports are that they like Acuff, but I would not take anything seriously now.
If he reaches 8, the odds are probably against ATL taking him imo.

Of the three, I think Flemings is probably the likeliest of him, Acuff and Wagler being there at 9.  I think Wagler has the least likely of the three to be there at 9.

Of those you mention, I agree it's probably Flemings. Most mocks would probably have Brown dropping to 9 I think. And I agree that Wagler may be the least likely.

If Acuff was there at #9, I bet anything someone below us would make us a sweet offer for him.

[mvossman]

I don't think it happens but there is a world where Acuff makes it to 9.  The question is, would Dallas takes him?

For that to happen, the Nets would probably need to take a wing/big or Brown Jr.
The Kings would have to favor Flemings or Brown.  Reports are that they like Acuff, but I would not take anything seriously now.
If he reaches 8, the odds are probably against ATL taking him imo.

Of the three, I think Flemings is probably the likeliest of him, Acuff and Wagler being there at 9.  I think Wagler has the least likely of the three to be there at 9.

I really don't think there is any chance he gets by the Kings.  I think Wagler is more likely to drop than him, then Flemings, then Brown.