2026 NBA draft thread

[Smitty]

Wagler's lack of muscle is a problem. He uses his body well, but he's going to get pushed around in the NBA.

Mullins is pretty scrappy for his weight, and he hunts that 3-point shot. You can't give him any space. He'd just dying to take it.

Wagler is not a PG. He’s had several opportunities to go get his like an A1 point guard and has not been able to. Off-ball guard is what he’ll be in the NBA. I’m pretty sure of it. I think he’ll be a Max Christie type, which is just fine.

[F Gump]

I think its hard to predict this kind of thing without knowing what happens in the lottery.  That pick could have a huge impact on the roster.  If they get top 4, there is a good chance they end up with a forward/big, bringing them back to similar roster imbalances they started the season with.  In that scenario they would really need to move one of PJ/Naji and probably look to pick up one of the 6th man options with the MLE.

Regardless, I hope there is more movement than you are suggesting.  This roster needs a lot of changes and it would be really frustrating to watch this organization squander the flexibility they traded away AD for.  If nothing else, I would much rather take a shot with the MLE than spend some of that space on a 35 year old Middleton.

1 I agree with the idea that you have to know the outcome of the lottery (and PERHAPS the draft itself) in order to assess the direction for the rest of the summer choices. 

2 But we already know that they badly need a top G added to this roster. Period. One way or another. And they have a lot of playable bodies at F.

3 Unfortunately the odds that the best player available will be a G is only about 72%*, not 100%, and there's about a 28% chance that when it's their turn to pick, the clearly best player available will be a F, and this roster needs top talent to play alongside CF for years, more than anything, so they would have to take the F.  

[*28% = over 37% to get a top 4 pick, and about 75% that a F is the obvious choice when they make that top 4 pick]

4 So to piggyback on your thoughts, there is a very real chance (28%) they will enter the roster-building season after the draft even more overloaded at F and in significant need for help at G. So they would need to chase the right solution either by free agency or by trade. This is where the Expert GM earns his pay, by navigating the most advantageous path to get that much-needed G on this roster for the right price in assets and in salary. 

In free agency, the only potential solutions I can see would be Dosunmu (SG) who will be UFA,, or Gillespie (RFA). But each is a starter, and the only way they get away would be if their team didn't want to pay what it takes to keep them. In a hard cap world, that's possible, but those are ones I would target and see what's doable. 

5 The Mavs are almost certainly NOT going to be in a cap crunch this summer. They will start at about 45M under the cap, with only 2 roster slots open (assuming Nemby is kept via the Team Option, and they keep the 2 1st rounders on the roster). So if they spend the full MLE (about 15M) they are still very flexible for whatever else they do. 

6 What to do with Middleton and/or Bagley and/or Cisse and/or BWill and so on? Not that important imo, because they are all most likely 3rd stringers, except that I'm not tying up much money in a 3rd stringer. 

7 Middleton? I'm not sure he's worth keeping at all, but he's hard to read. His best Mav games by far have been against tank teams, games that the Mavs would have been better to lose, but his heroics turned a L into a win. Especially MEM. So who is he, and what would he look like on a team playing to win big? It's hard to know. I see him as a 3rd stringer on THIS roster because of the Mavs' glut at F, however, and I don't allocate much money for that 3rd string tier of player. Good question for the Expert GM to decipher. In any event, the very upper end of what I would do would be a 1 + 1 (TO) with a salary below 10M and a specification he can be traded without permission, where he's potentially a "you don't play all the time, but stay ready" player and as much of an expiring trade chip (if he plays well) and team mentor.

8 I don't want to waste roster spots on Martin and Johnson, who both have contracts. It's wasted money, but it's less about the salary itself and more about having useless talent clogging the roster. Is it possible there's a team with cap issues that will welcome a lopsided-salary trade and be willing to move a higher-salaried but much higher talented G to get some relief, like the Mavs did with AD, with those players part of the outgoing? That's for the Expert GM to unravel -- but that's the sort of thing you hire him to accomplish.

9 IDLE KYRIE-RELATED THOUGHT FOR DISCUSSION 1. In light of the failed season this year vs lofty expectations, is there any chance KD might be available? He's brought a ton of drama to the Rox' scene. But he's still very good. 

10 IDLE KYRIE-RELATED THOUGHT FOR DISCUSSION 2. If he was gettable either via MLE or via a SNT at a reasonable price in talent, should the Mavs chase Lebron? He's not as good as he once was, and he is cringe-worthy way too often, but he's still a very good talent.

[F Gump]

Wagler is not a PG.

I very much disagree. I think any team that drafts Wagler will see him as a PG, and imo he has the basic traits and skills to be a good one. But like the rest of the PG types, he does have some areas of his game that will need attention to make him into what you want him to become.

[Winter]

I don't know what Wagler is... which is a little scary.

Mullins on the other hand is going to be a good-looking SG. His role is absolutely defined. Burries is likely the same. If the Mavs drop a bit in the draft slot, I would consider either of them over a PG.

[Smitty]

I don't know what Wagler is... which is a little scary.

Mullins on the other hand is going to be a good-looking SG. His role is absolutely defined. Burries is likely the same. If the Mavs drop a bit in the draft slot, I would consider either of them over a PG.

I’m leaning towards Burries over Wagler. And I’d seriously consider Mullins over Wagler also. I’ve watched more Wagler than those two, so maybe I’m more critical. But Wagler just doesn’t impress me all that much. His lack of athleticism, strength, physicality is apparent in every game I’ve watched…

[Smitty]

Without knowing the Mavs pick. This is what I’d have for my Mavs board.

1) Dybantsa
2) Boozer
3) Wilson
4) Acuff
5) Peterson
6) Brown Jr.
7) Burries
8) Flemings
9) Philon
10) Wagler
10b) Mullins

I’m aware that my rankings are different than the consensus. But I’ve watched all 11 of these guys in at least 5 full games each. Most of them in many more than that. So, it is what it is… This is a board for Mavs only. Not a mock, or what I think will happen.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Mara is what you'd create in the lab for a Luka center.

[Mavs2021]

Mara is what you'd create in the lab for a Luka center.

I don´t buy these Tankathon ranking at all, but if they were remotely correct:

1. I´d call the Cavs and offer them to take on Schroeder or Strus into the TPE for #29. 
2. I´d call the Lakers and offer them Gafford for #26.
3. I´d pray to move into the top 4.

Anderson/Bradley
Christie/Swain
Flagg/
Wilson/
Lively/Mara

That´s eight guys 23 and under; pretty much the best defensive frontcourt in the whole league, if Lively ever gets healthy. Plus 5-6 high functioning veterans and a great cap  situation.


Just give us #3, Adam. We are not greedy. Wilson will do.

....but what if Silver wants to drive home his new tanking rules, by giving one team back to back #1 picks. Guys who is eligible for b2b #1 picks this year?

[ThisIStheYear]

I’d just take Yaxel and call it a day. He’s old on the one hand but didn’t start playing organized basketball until playing in only 11 games as a high school senior. His developmental path has been unorthodox but impressive. He and Boozer have easily been the best actual players in college basketball this season. He has the ideal NBA body, athleticism, and skill set. Wagler would be my other candidate outside the obvious Big 4 choices. You just can’t teach length, and the step back is now the separator shot for NBA guards and wings. Only DP has a better step back. Flemings will be a solid all around player. He’s my fall back plan. Burries has fallen for me. He’s extremely old for a freshman and is just a little short for a wing while lacking point guard skills. He’s a tweener. The Michigan center, along with Yaxel, have done the most to improve their stock during the tournament. What a great team, the best I’ve seen in the one and done era for sure. You have to go back to the glory days (MJ, Worthy, Perkins; GTown; UNLV; the great Duke teams; and Phi Slama Jama even though they lost to find better.

[Winter]

I’d just take Yaxel and call it a day. He’s old on the one hand but didn’t start playing organized basketball until playing in only 11 games as a high school senior. His developmental path has been unorthodox but impressive. He and Boozer have easily been the best actual players in college basketball this season. He has the ideal NBA body, athleticism, and skill set. Wagler would be my other candidate outside the obvious Big 4 choices. You just can’t teach length, and the step back is now the separator shot for NBA guards and wings.  Only DP has a better step back. Flemings will be a solid all around player. He’s my fall back plan. Burries has fallen for me. He’s extremely old for a freshman and is just a little short for a wing while lacking point guard skills. He’s a tweener. The Michigan center, along with Yaxel, have done the most to improve their stock during the tournament. What a great team, the best I’ve seen in the one and done era for sure. You have to go back to the glory days (MJ, Worthy, Perkins; GTown; UNLV; the great Duke teams; and Phi Slama Jama even though they lost to find better.

Wait, you love Yaxel, but are down on Burries for being too old?

I do think, at the end of the day, whoever takes Yaxel is going to be real happy regardless of his age.

[Winter]

Without knowing the Mavs pick. This is what I’d have for my Mavs board.

1) Dybantsa
2) Boozer
3) Wilson
4) Acuff
5) Peterson
6) Brown Jr.
7) Burries
8) Flemings
9) Philon
10) Wagler
10b) Mullins

I’m aware that my rankings are different than the consensus. But I’ve watched all 11 of these guys in at least 5 full games each. Most of them in many more than that. So, it is what it is… This is a board for Mavs only. Not a mock, or what I think will happen.

I think the problematic spots are...

Where do we put Peterson
Where do we put Brown
Where do we put Wagler

Those three seem to get moved a lot in everyone's mind - me included. In each case, their floor is hard to read.

[Chicagojk]

Mara is what you'd create in the lab for a Luka center.

The top 3 potential centers in this draft will be interesting.  Mara couldn’t play at UCLa last year and looks like a different player this year.  His highlights are really fun.

The kentucky kid is the youngest of the three and has the highest ceiling but only played  a few games this year after tearing his acl last year.  OKC guy?

The Duke kid is sort of a mix of the other two.  Good passing and intriguing defensive skill.  Although he had a leg issue at the end of the season and I believe he missed his senior year in high school with a lower leg injury.  Concerning for a big.

Last week Vecinie last week hinted at some maturity issues with Yaxel.  Just something to monitor.

[Chicagojk]

Every Boozer dunk this year

https://youtu.be/RjmXMKHSJ-8?si=hgZj4MiKMspRLQ_o

[loki]

The top 3 are the real difference makers who could be Flagg's co-star (top 2 could be #1's on their own) while having an impact on both ends. I have Acuff and Boozer as potential all-stars who will be limited by their defense.

I think Philon is being underrated because he's a sophomore, but he's actually younger than Burries and only 4 months older than Brown. I don't view either Wagler or Flemings as a lead guard on a contender, but they could become quality starters. Brown is the wildcard here who may move into the Acuff/Boozer tier or to the bottom of the 1st round in a re-draft. Yax will be a solid defensive role player who can guard 1-5. I wouldn't fault the Mavs for taking Burries over him due to fit.

1) Peterson
2) Dybantsa

3) Wilson

4) Acuff
5) Boozer

6) Philon
7) Wagler
8) Flemings
9) Brown
10) Lendeborg

[Winter]

The kentucky kid is the youngest of the three and has the highest ceiling but only played  a few games this year after tearing his acl last year.  OKC guy?

I've seen podcasts where the talk of Quaintance is over the top. They call him an amazing defensive center if he gets healthy enough. Like a cross between Usain Bolt and Dwight Howard.

[ThisIStheYear]

Wait, you love Yaxel, but are down on Burries for being too old?

I do think, at the end of the day, whoever takes Yaxel is going to be real happy regardless of his age.

I know. It seems contradictory but 1) Yaxel is way better. His combination of team and individual productivity this season is on par with guys like Flagg, AD, and Boozer. 2) He’s not a tweener like Burries, he’s a huge dude with athleticism and guard skills. 3) He didn’t really play basketball until practically college and is still early in his developmental arc. I also like that he’s a dawg and lives and breathes basketball. I’d take him anywhere 6 and below, maybe 5.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The top 3 potential centers in this draft will be interesting.  Mara couldn’t play at UCLa last year and looks like a different player this year.  His highlights are really fun.

The kentucky kid is the youngest of the three and has the highest ceiling but only played  a few games this year after tearing his acl last year.  OKC guy?

The Duke kid is sort of a mix of the other two.  Good passing and intriguing defensive skill.  Although he had a leg issue at the end of the season and I believe he missed his senior year in high school with a lower leg injury.  Concerning for a big.

Last week Vecinie last week hinted at some maturity issues with Yaxel.  Just something to monitor.

Haven't you given UConn center Tarris Reed Jr any consideration? I would think he's going to be a high pick. He's had a great tournament so far if he can stay out of foul trouble.

[Chicagojk]

Haven't you given UConn center Tarris Reed Jr any consideration? I would think he's going to be a high pick. He's had a great tournament so far if he can stay out of foul trouble.

He has been awesome.  I was not familiar with him until a few weeks ago.  Going back most sites had him as a late second or undrafted.   Kevin Oconnner just had him in a mock at the end of the first round.  That is the first time I have seen that.

I think the Florida and Arizona centers are potential late firsts too, if they declare.  I have trouble seeing 5-6 centers in the first round though.

[Winter]

Loved Tarris Reed. Runs the floor well too. I never saw a face-to-the-basket shot, but I saw just about everything else from him.

[mvossman]

I’m leaning towards Burries over Wagler. And I’d seriously consider Mullins over Wagler also. I’ve watched more Wagler than those two, so maybe I’m more critical. But Wagler just doesn’t impress me all that much. His lack of athleticism, strength, physicality is apparent in every game I’ve watched…

Man, I would be really disappointed if we come out of the lottery with an undersized shooting guard.  I think I would go Philon before Burries.