2026 NBA draft thread

[SkenfromLMF]

Bagley putting up a Mejri

[Mavs2021]

No wonder Clingan gets so many rebounds. Barely shooting above 20% around the rim.

[cow]

No wonder Clingan gets so many rebounds. Barely shooting above 20% around the rim.

He missed so many bunnies tonight.

[Chicagojk]

I really wonder if Philon is the prospect hiding in clear sight. I am really curious how he turns out. His growth from freshman to sophomore is really impressive. The one drawback is he is not an explosive leader but bounds he hard to stay in front of. He has added this step back three where he gets crazy separation and defenders are routinely on skates. An improved three point shot makes him even more lethal. He also has good size and is young for a sophomore.

There has been some recent Alabama guards who have disappointed but I do wonder if people are bypassing Philon due to a lack of perceived upside while in reality he could have just as much of bounce potential as some of the others.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I really wonder if Philon is the prospect hiding in clear sight.  I am really curious how he turns out.  His growth from freshman to sophomore is really impressive.  The one drawback is he is not an explosive leader but bounds he hard to stay in front of.  He has added this step back three where he gets crazy separation and defenders are routinely on skates.  An improved three point shot makes him even more lethal.  He also has good size and is young for a sophomore.

There has been some recent Alabama guards who have disappointed but I do wonder if people are bypassing Philon due to a lack of perceived upside while in reality he could have just as much of bounce potential as some of the others.

I don't know if you consider Collin Sexton and Keon Ellis as disappointments, as far as guards are concerned. SF's Brandon Miller and Herb Jones can be borderline stars at their positions.  They're all good players. Are Sexton and Ellis stars? No, but they can play a role on an NBA roster.

[Smitty]

21 Wins and 10 Games to go for the Jazz. They have 3 winnable games left on their schedule IMO. (WAS, NOP, MEM)
23 Wins and 10 Games to go for the Mavs. They have 4 winnable games left on their schedule IMO. (POR, MIL, LAC, CHI)
24 Wins and 11 Games to go for the Grizzles. They have 3 winnable games left on their schedule IMO. (CHI, MIL, UTAH)
25 Wins and 10 Games to go for the Pelicans. They have 4 winnable games left on their schedule IMO. (POR, SAC, ORL, UTAH)


I feel comfortable saying it's unlikely the Mavs tie or jump the Jazz for the 5th spot. As well as it being unlikely that the Pels tie or jump the Mavs, in this disgraceful tank-off. As my kids would say, six--seven... It likely comes down to the final game of the season against CHI, with the Mavs needing to lose to stay in a tie with MEM or stay ahead of them in the Win column.

Mavs win one that I thought was winnable. Now tied with MEM in the win column, who has a big game tonight against CHI.

[DanSchwartzgan]

It's likely that Burries is closer to 6'3, if we look at the history of college guards getting their listed heights exaggerated.   

IF we're thinking of Flagg as the future Point-Forward, I can get behind it. But I'd also want Max, or someone with his skillset, at the small Wing (SF) spot for his shooting and switchability on defense as well.

Thanks for following up with the Burries stats when Bradley is off the floor...very encouraging.  Given the very real possibility that Acuff, Flemings and Wagler are off the board when we draft, the discussion may be less about how Burries compares to them and more about how he compares to Brown, Philon, Lendebord and Ament.   BTW, if Burries is 6'3", then Acuff is 6'0" of 6'1" at the most.  There is a noticeable difference between them.  

I do think we have to account for Flagg spending some time on the ball in a similar way to what we see from players like Tatum, Kawhi or Avdija.  That doesn't mean we don't need another player who can create for others.  I just wonder how "pure" of a PG it has to be given what I think Flagg will be doing.  If Kyrie were available, the starting lineup would be Kyrie, Christie, Forward, Flagg and a Center.  I don't think we'd be complaining that Kyrie isn't "pure" enough despite the fact that many have pointed out that Kyrie isn't a "pure" PG.  

I think a lot of our offensive issues would be remedied by having another self/others creator (like Kyrie) on the floor.  I'm not saying Burries is Kyrie, but I do think he can fit into a guard rotation with Kyrie and Christie - maybe not as well as Wagler, but he can be on the floor with either Christie/Flagg or Kyrie/Flagg.   Could we run minutes with NAW/Flagg?  Booker/Flagg?  Those seem to be the comps.  The answer is probably more about what Flagg is than what Burries is.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Curious what people think...Where would a healthy Lively go in this draft?

[ThisIStheYear]

Thanks for following up with the Burries stats when Bradley is off the floor...very encouraging.  Given the very real possibility that Acuff, Flemings and Wagler are off the board when we draft, the discussion may be less about how Burries compares to them and more about how he compares to Brown, Philon, Lendebord and Ament.   BTW, if Burries is 6'3", then Acuff is 6'0" of 6'1" at the most.  There is a noticeable difference between them.  

I do think we have to account for Flagg spending some time on the ball in a similar way to what we see from players like Tatum, Kawhi or Avdija.  That doesn't mean we don't need another player who can create for others.  I just wonder how "pure" of a PG it has to be given what I think Flagg will be doing.  If Kyrie were available, the starting lineup would be Kyrie, Christie, Forward, Flagg and a Center.  I don't think we'd be complaining that Kyrie isn't "pure" enough despite the fact that many have pointed out that Kyrie isn't a "pure" PG.  

I think a lot of our offensive issues would be remedied by having another self/others creator (like Kyrie) on the floor.  I'm not saying Burries is Kyrie, but I do think he can fit into a guard rotation with Kyrie and Christie - maybe not as well as Wagler, but he can be on the floor with either Christie/Flagg or Kyrie/Flagg.   Could we run minutes with NAW/Flagg?  Booker/Flagg?  Those seem to be the comps.  The answer is probably more about what Flagg is than what Burries is.

Burries, Brown, Philon, and even Yaxel and Steinbach have practically the same potential as Acuff, Flemings, and Wagler. Some people even still like Ament. If the Mavs don’t move up in the lottery, it doesn’t matter what pick they have.  Burries would be a worthy pick at 5 (I have him 6 after Acuff), but he could easily go 10th (because he’s an old frosh). It’s the most clustered group of good prospects down to pick 13 we’ve ever seen.

And, a healthy Lively (BPM around 9), goes about 20 in this draft I think, maybe lower. He’s probably the same tier as the current Duke center, but due to his chronic injury problems won’t have as good a career, unfortunately. Lively has the sort of injury history that is fatal for a big man’s career.

[Winter]

Curious what people think...Where would a healthy Lively go in this draft?

I think he'd grade out higher than Ngongba would - the current Duke center. 

Ngongba usually is slotted somewhere between 16 and 24 and usually closer to 24. It's a little hard to imagine Lively above Aday Mara who is usually slotted around the same spot. So I'm guessing somewhere around 20-24.

[vfromlmf]

I really wonder if Philon is the prospect hiding in clear sight.  I am really curious how he turns out.  His growth from freshman to sophomore is really impressive.  The one drawback is he is not an explosive leader but bounds he hard to stay in front of.  He has added this step back three where he gets crazy separation and defenders are routinely on skates.  An improved three point shot makes him even more lethal.  He also has good size and is young for a sophomore.

There has been some recent Alabama guards who have disappointed but I do wonder if people are bypassing Philon due to a lack of perceived upside while in reality he could have just as much of bounce potential as some of the others.

Philon is my dark horse for sure and I’ve noticed the same thing about his step back. That’s an NBA shot that will translate. He can mature into a dawg on defense too.

[mvossman]

Thanks for following up with the Burries stats when Bradley is off the floor...very encouraging.  Given the very real possibility that Acuff, Flemings and Wagler are off the board when we draft, the discussion may be less about how Burries compares to them and more about how he compares to Brown, Philon, Lendebord and Ament.   BTW, if Burries is 6'3", then Acuff is 6'0" of 6'1" at the most.  There is a noticeable difference between them.  

I think I read that Acuff got an official measurement of 6'1" when he was 16.  This is a bit of a Fletch reference, but I wonder if Burries looks a little taller than he is compared to Acuff because of the hair.

[Scott41theMavs]

Good job, Grizz! I knew you could (barely) beat Josh Kiddies's team.

[Scott41theMavs]

Scott41 big board 2.0:

1) Dybantsa
2) Wilson
3) Acuff
4) Peterson (while still having a great deal of trepidation on him - picked 4 or after, I'm fine with him as a Mav)
5) Boozer
6) Wagler
7) Burries
8) Flemings

Hopefully we don't get pushed lower than 8, and these are the guys.

Add in Philon at 9 after his performance last night. Mavs, please don't win any more games. It's about the opportunity to move up, and not to end up too far down if we don't.

[Scott41theMavs]

A little analysis of our last 8 games, and how hard I believe it will be for the Mavs to lose. I have a little 4-point rating system for that - 1, easy loss, 4, almost impossible to lose. 

1. Monday, March 30 vs. the Wolves. Home game for the Mavs, which I don't consider to matter much this year. Wolves not on a back-to-back, and need the win for playoff positioning. This is a 1.

2. Tuesday, March 31 @ Bucks. This would normally be a 4, but it's a SEGABABA for us on the road, and not a back to back for the Bucks in spite of their very high tanking priority. I'd say it's a 2.

3. Friday, April 3 vs. Orlando. The Magic are really shaky lately, but they need this game for playoff positioning. A 2.

4. Sunday, April 5 vs. the Lakers. LOL, this is a 1.

5. Tuesday, April 7 @ Clippers. The Clippers are shaky too, but they need this to stay in the top half of the play-in. A 2. 

6. Wednesday, April 8 @ Suns. I'm nervous about this game because I believe the Suns will have locked in at 7 by this point and might be resting players, but it's SEGABABA on the road for us. It's also a SEGABABA for them, but they're substantially better than us right now. A 3, goes down to 2 if the Suns aren't resting players and want to win.

7. Friday, April 10 @ Spurs. I don't trust this game, and I especially don't trust that hoser Popovich. The Spurs would usually crush us like a grape, but they might be resting players at this point, and as I said elsewhere, Pop loves to force-feed us wins when we're tanking. A 3 based on my wariness alone. 

8. Sunday, April 12 vs. the Bulls. Ugh. The Bulls will likely be desperate for a loss at this point, and they're completely hapless anyway. If we've done our job up to this point and the Grizz and Pels have won at least one more game each, we'll be able to win this one safely. If we desperately need to lose, we're going to have to sit nearly everyone or play Cisse at the point. A quite high 4.

[myconsumerclub]

https://www.nba.com/game/chi-vs-mem-0022501079

Memphis wins a game again 125 to 124 against Chicago so we are back in the game at the6th pick.

[loki]

A little analysis of our last 8 games, and how hard I believe it will be for the Mavs to lose. I have a little 4-point rating system for that - 1, easy loss, 4, almost impossible to lose. 

1. Monday, March 30 vs. the Wolves. Home game for the Mavs, which I don't consider to matter much this year. Wolves not on a back-to-back, and need the win for playoff positioning. This is a 1.

2. Tuesday, March 31 @ Bucks. This would normally be a 4, but it's a SEGABABA for us on the road, and not a back to back for the Bucks in spite of their very high tanking priority. I'd say it's a 2.

3. Friday, April 3 vs. Orlando. The Magic are really shaky lately, but they need this game for playoff positioning. A 2.

4. Sunday, April 5 vs. the Lakers. LOL, this is a 1.

5. Tuesday, April 7 @ Clippers. The Clippers are shaky too, but they need this to stay in the top half of the play-in. A 2. 

6. Wednesday, April 8 @ Suns. I'm nervous about this game because I believe the Suns will have locked in at 7 by this point and might be resting players, but it's SEGABABA on the road for us. It's also a SEGABABA for them, but they're substantially better than us right now. A 3, goes down to 2 if the Suns aren't resting players and want to win.

7. Friday, April 10 @ Spurs. I don't trust this game, and I especially don't trust that hoser Popovich. The Spurs would usually crush us like a grape, but they might be resting players at this point, and as I said elsewhere, Pop loves to force-feed us wins when we're tanking. A 3 based on my wariness alone. 

8. Sunday, April 12 vs. the Bulls. Ugh. The Bulls will likely be desperate for a loss at this point, and they're completely hapless anyway. If we've done our job up to this point and the Grizz and Pels have won at least one more game each, we'll be able to win this one safely. If we desperately need to lose, we're going to have to sit nearly everyone or play Cisse at the point. A quite high 4.

Nice breakdown. Games 2 & 6 are convenient with the B2B. They can rest some guys without raising too many eyebrows. Games 7 & 8 are where you do whatever is necessary. Utah is basically pulling people out of the stands to play their 4th quarters now and they're getting away with it.

[Chicagojk]

Wagler was super impressive last night.  He just is so composed and doesn't make many mistakes.  That veteran team has confidence in him with the ball his hands.   I wonder how he would look in a fast paced offense.   Flagg, Kyrie and Kidd want to play fast.  

Peat with a good game too.  Most of the draft community is down on him.  Shooting will be his swing skill.  I think there is something there though.   Although his shooting will tell a lot about him.  It may take a few years.  Arizona has several late first and second round prospects.  Krivas and Kharchenkov in late first and Bradley in the second.   Krivas and Kharch may be better going back to school but they have good shots as a first round pick.   Kharch reminds me of Dillon Brooks.

[Smitty]

@DraftDeeper
Admittedly, Keaton Wagler has been one of my more puzzling evaluations this season. He’s clearly a good player. But how will his frame fill out? He plays tough, but does he have enough when it comes to scoring in the paint? If his best shot is a step-back three, does he do enough when his shot isn’t falling? I do buy his upside as a potential big guard who can really play on the ball, and that’s what’s kept a high grade for me. But I’ve gone back and forth about the highest outcomes in relation to the other guards he’s competing against in this draft.


Nathan Grubel with the latest on Wagler and it’s exactly how I feel about him. I know mvossman points out that he’s a late bloomer and so much unlocked potential but it could very easily be a one hit wonder case also. And his lack of strength, athleticism and shot diet keep him from being a legit NBA player…

[DanSchwartzgan]

Wagler was super impressive last night.  He just is so composed and doesn't make many mistakes.  That veteran team has confidence in him with the ball his hands.   I wonder how he would look in a fast paced offense.   Flagg, Kyrie and Kidd want to play fast.  
 

I think the desire to play fast is something we should keep in mind as we think through prospects...draft and free agency.  I think the low turnovers also help Wagler's cause to be a Mav priority if he's available.  Now that I'm watching him more, I don't think his D is as bad as I might have feared based on his small frame.  The NBA will be different and fighting through screens will be a problem, but he at least works at it.

The thing that gives me the most pause about Wagler is watching him try to navigate hard hedges on PnR plays.  He never turns the corner on anyone.  This will limit his usefulness as a main ball-handler at the next level.  I'm not sure what the counter will be, but it shows his limited athleticism in a way that detracts some from how high I'd rate him.  Still high, but not 5th/6th pick high like some now have him.  

Here are two Advanced Stat lines for guys available in this range that I found interesting (knowing some don't give a rat's a$$ about this).  The WS/40 and BPM's are very similar for these players, but they get in different ways.  One is more heavily skewed toward O and the other is more balanced between O and D:

              Player 1       Player 2
PER          22.2              24.1
TS%         .625             .597
TRB %       8.9               8.4
AST %      14.5              23.3
STL %       2.8               1.7
TOV %      10.2              10.5
USG %      23.2              25.0
OWS          3.7               5.4
DWS          2.7               1.7
WS            6.4               7.0
WS/40        .226             .234
OBPM         6.2               8.9
DBPM         5.8               3.5  
BPM           12.0             12.4

FWIW, Flemings is in this same range in terms of WS/40 and BPM, but has a much higher AST %.  Acuff is lower (as you'd expect, his D numbers hurt his overall advanced metrics).  Similar for Philon.  103 year old Yaxel Lendeborg has fantastic numbers...but, he's 103 and in his second senior season (literally a man among boys).  

Player 1 is Burries and Player 2 is Wagler.  Surprising that Burries has the higher TS%.  It was a little surprising to me that so many of their numbers were so similar.