2026 NBA draft thread

[Chicagojk]

This would probably help solve most of the questions.   I didn't know everything has been hush hush.   Being open would probably quiet a lot of the talk.

https://x.com/GoodmanHoops/status/2024817766604149131

[michaeltex]

Peterson antics seem bizarre. He's a freshman (although very talented) and he gets to take himself out of games? He must have dirt on the coach to get away with that.

From a conspiracy angle, maybe he's just trying to show his potential while casting doubt he's "The One" so he get's passed over by re-building teams and gets picked farther down by a team with more upside.

First year of Rookie scale for #10 pick is ~$5MM. Petersen is estimated to be getting $1.5MM - $3MM this year (already signed with Adidas and Fanatics). If he could up NIL to >$5MM for another season, he maybe doesn't worry about jumping to the NBA grind so quickly. (FWIW, Flagg made an estimated $4.8MM during his one college year.)

[Dirknows]

Peterson antics seem bizarre. He's a freshman (although very talented) and he gets to take himself out of games? He must have dirt on the coach to get away with that.

From a conspiracy angle, maybe he's just trying to show his potential while casting doubt he's "The One" so he get's passed over by re-building teams and gets picked farther down by a team with more upside.

First year of Rookie scale for #10 pick is ~$5MM. Petersen is estimated to be getting $1.5MM - $3MM this year (already signed with Adidas and Fanatics). If he could up NIL to >$5MM for another season, he maybe doesn't worry about jumping to the NBA grind so quickly. (FWIW, Flagg made an estimated $4.8MM during his one college year.)

Nobody is passing up NBA money when they are a potential first overall pick to go back to college. One injury and you cost yourself generational wealth. Same people were saying this nonsense about Cooper last year. He’s going top-3, zero chance he falls to 10 barring an act of God.

[F Gump]

Peterson's story is bizarre. It may not change.

But the chance he returns to college is basically 0, because while he is longer a lock to be 1, he's not going to slip past 3. Thats too much to risk.

[khaled1987]

Peterson might be avoiding being consensus first overall pick in order to land where he wants to be.

But most likely he has an actual health/injury issue that he isn't honest about

[Dirknows]

Another one to keep an eye on is Chicago.  They have their own pick (currently #9) and Portland's which is Top 14 protected.  Portland is currently 13 (10th in the west).  So, whether the pick conveys or not will come down to the play-in.  Are we going to see teams 'tank' their play-in games to stay in the lottery?  The Portland pick rolls over for two more seasons and then becomes a 2028 second.  

I'm not a fan of moving down to 12 or 13 to get an extra pick.  9 might be too far.  I only think these scenarios come into play if Dallas and Chicago (15th) or Dallas and Memphis (17th) both move up and you are moving from 3 to 4 and picking up the extra mid first.  I'm not sure these teams will give up a mid-first to go from 8th/9th to 7th.

BTW, we always point it out when Acuff or Brown has a big game.  So, I'll point out that Ament had a strong 29 point game Wednesday against OU.  Tennessee is 7-1 in its last 8 games and Ament has 29 point games against Alabama, Kentucky and OU during that span and a 28 point game against Ole Miss.  One of the things I like about him is the skinny little dude gets to the line.  In 13 SEC games he's averaging 8.6 FTA's per game.

Yeah, I don’t really know what to think of Ament I haven’t watched too much of him lately. I saw him play early in the year when he was playing poorly. Is he a spot up shooter? You said he’s averaging a fair amount of FTA, is he better with the ball in his hands? How is his defense he looks pretty skinny out there. Is his best case scenario Brandon Ingram?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Yeah, I don’t really know what to think of Ament I haven’t watched too much of him lately. I saw him play early in the year when he was playing poorly. Is he a spot up shooter? You said he’s averaging a fair amount of FTA, is he better with the ball in his hands? How is his defense he looks pretty skinny out there. Is his best case scenario Brandon Ingram?

Ament is a pretty divisive prospect.  I think Ingram and Buzelis are probably good comps.  If you are down on him, you might say Risacher.  If you love him, you might say "poor man's KD".  He's not a stopper on D by any means and he is skinny.  Stocks per 36 are 1.7 with Blocks below average for someone of his length.  You are drafting him for his offensive potential.  He's got an interesting multi-level game that will be especially effective as his 3 point shot improves.  He's a projection for sure, but once you get to a certain place in the draft his ceiling is much higher than what is still on the board.

[Dirknows]

Ament is a pretty divisive prospect.  I think Ingram and Buzelis are probably good comps.  If you are down on him, you might say Risacher.  If you love him, you might say "poor man's KD".  He's not a stopper on D by any means and he is skinny.  Stocks per 36 are 1.7 with Blocks below average for someone of his length.  You are drafting him for his offensive potential.  He's got an interesting multi-level game that will be especially effective as his 3 point shot improves.  He's a projection for sure, but once you get to a certain place in the draft his ceiling is much higher than what is still on the board.

I’d have to see what Point Guards were available when we were picking. But he definitely seems like a decent choice if we land at 8 or 9. I’m still on the Braylon Mullins is going to be a Devin Booker with better defense type player, or perhaps Klay with a little more offensive game but not as good of a shooter. Going to be very interesting how this draft class turns out in 5 years with all the hype.

[Winter]

I’d have to see what Point Guards were available when we were picking. But he definitely seems like a decent choice if we land at 8 or 9. I’m still on the Braylon Mullins is going to be a Devin Booker with better defense type player, or perhaps Klay with a little more offensive game but not as good of a shooter. Going to be very interesting how this draft class turns out in 5 years with all the hype.

I doubt Mullins can raise his draft profile into the top 10 of the draft. Occasionally some draft will have him there, but it's rare. He doesn't touch the ball enough in Connecticut's offense to drive these recent big numbers like we're seeing with Brown, Acuff, Flemings, Wagler, and even Philon - all of which are primary ball-handlers. The last I checked, all five of the Huskies starters were scoring double digits, and Mullins was not their top scoring player. I can't see him leap-frogging any player currently in the top 10.

It does appear that Brown, Wagler, and now Acuff are pretty secure in the top 10. Besides being in the vicinity of the Mavs picks, they also fill a playmaking need for the Mavericks, so one of those players could easily be targets at draft time. Ament will likely be there, but I think he would have to look awful good to the Mavs in workouts to take the # 7 or 8 spot.

[Mavs2021]

Ament´s sample size is growing now with the last 10 games at 21/6/3 on 47/41/80 splits. At this point I think Ament and Brown will re-establish themselves as top 6 picks. Flemings last five games shooting at 42/13/80. Large part of the draft is confirmation bias and the scouts will look for players to confirm their initial assessments and those had Brown and Ament as the next tier.

[Mavs2021]

I doubt Mullins can raise his draft profile into the top 10 of the draft. Occasionally some draft will have him there, but it's rare. He doesn't touch the ball enough in Connecticut's offense to drive these recent big numbers like we're seeing with Brown, Acuff, Flemings, Wagler, and even Philon - all of which are primary ball-handlers. The last I checked, all five of the Huskies starters were scoring double digits, and Mullins was not their top scoring player. I can't see him leap-frogging any player currently in the top 10.

It does appear that Brown, Wagler, and now Acuff are pretty secure in the top 10. Besides being in the vicinity of the Mavs picks, they also fill a playmaking need for the Mavericks, so one of those players could easily be targets at draft time. Ament will likely be there, but I think he would have to look awful good to the Mavs in workouts to take the # 7 or 8 spot.

It´s funny, but  ranking aside, I´m pretty confident you can nail the top 14 in this draft pretty easily. Those are the 14 guys that will be picked.

Peterson
Boozer
Dybantsa
Wilson
Brown
Ament
Wagler
Flemings
Acuff
Philon
Steinbach
Quaintance
Peat
Mullins

[Dirknows]

I doubt Mullins can raise his draft profile into the top 10 of the draft. Occasionally some draft will have him there, but it's rare. He doesn't touch the ball enough in Connecticut's offense to drive these recent big numbers like we're seeing with Brown, Acuff, Flemings, Wagler, and even Philon - all of which are primary ball-handlers. The last I checked, all five of the Huskies starters were scoring double digits, and Mullins was not their top scoring player. I can't see him leap-frogging any player currently in the top 10.

It does appear that Brown, Wagler, and now Acuff are pretty secure in the top 10. Besides being in the vicinity of the Mavs picks, they also fill a playmaking need for the Mavericks, so one of those players could easily be targets at draft time. Ament will likely be there, but I think he would have to look awful good to the Mavs in workouts to take the # 7 or 8 spot.

I was just giving my personal opinions on Mullins, I think he’s going to be really good. As you said, he doesn’t get nearly the opportunities the other guys do to show off how good he is. I could see a team taking a chance on him at 8, or maybe he falls to the 12-14 range. The draft is going to be very interesting after pick 4 assuming the first 4 are all gone as we believe they will be.

[Winter]

I was just giving my personal opinions on Mullins, I think he’s going to be really good. As you said, he doesn’t get nearly the opportunities the other guys do to show off how good he is. I could see a team taking a chance on him at 8, or maybe he falls to the 12-14 range. The draft is going to be very interesting after pick 4 assuming the first 4 are all gone as we believe they will be.

I wish Mullins got more opportunities. I'm not even sure he touches the ball as much as Burries does who plays the same position at Arizona.

And in regards to the top 14 list, I'm not sure Quaintance stays in the top 15 if he can't get on the court. But otherwise, that's about the same guys we see every week... so yep.

[Smitty]

Sam Vecenie preseason mock from the Athletic

His tiers: 1-3, 4-17, and then 18 and beyond he views as question marks.
Vecenie's top 60:

1. Darryn Peterson, Kansas
   
2. AJ Dybantsa, BYU
   
3. Cam Boozer, Duke
   
4. Nate Ament, Tennessee
   
5. Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville
   
6. Chris Cenac Jr., Houston
   
7. Jayden Quaintance, Kentucky
   
8. Koa Peat, Arizona
   
9. Tounde Yessoufou, Baylor
   
10. LaBaron Philon, Alabama
    
11. Braylon Mullins, UConn
    
12. Bennett Stirtz, Iowa
    
13. Brayden Burries, Arizona
    
14. Dash Daniels, Melbourne
    
15. Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
    
16. Caleb Wilson, North Carolina
    
17. Thomas Haugh, Florida
    
18. Isiah Harwell, Houston
    
19. Karter Knox, Arkansas
    
20. Dwayne Aristode, Arizona
    
21. JoJo Tugler, Houston
    
22. Patrick Ngongba, Duke
    
23. Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas
    
24. Karim Lopez, New Zealand Breakers
    
25. Dame Sarr, Duke
    
26. Miles Byrd, San Diego State
    
27. Milos Uzan, Houston
    
28. Neoklis Avdalas, Virginia Tech
    
29. Sergio De Larrea, Valencia
    
30. Isaiah Evans, Duke
    
31. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn
    
32. Braden Smith, Purdue
    
33. Hannes Steinbach, Washington
    
34. Christian Anderson Jr., Texas Tech
    
35. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois
    
36. JT Toppin, Texas Tech
    
37. Cameron Carr, Baylor
    
38. Nate Bittle, Oregon
    
39. Adam Atamna, ASVEL
    
40. Flory Bidunga, Kansas
    
41. Boogie Fland, Florida
    
42. Paul McNeil, NC State
    
43. Henri Veesaar, North Carolina
    
44. Alex Karaban, UConn
    
45. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri
    
46. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State
    
47. Donovan Dent, UCLA
    
48. Richie Saunders, BYU
    
49. Darrion Williams, NC State
    
50. Alex Condon, Florida
    
51. Otega Oweh, Kentucky
    
52. Johann Grunloh, Virginia
    
53. Momo Faye, Senegal
    
54. Tucket DeVries, Indiana
    
55. Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue
    
56. Ryan Conwell, Louisville
    
57. Mackenzie Mgbako, Texas A&M
    
58. Josh Dix, Creighton
    
59. Dailyn Swain, Texas
    
60. Silas Demary Jr., UConn
    

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Ament´s sample size is growing now with the last 10 games at 21/6/3 on 47/41/80 splits. At this point I think Ament and Brown will re-establish themselves as top 6 picks. Flemings last five games shooting at 42/13/80. Large part of the draft is confirmation bias and the scouts will look for players to confirm their initial assessments and those had Brown and Ament as the next tier.

Yep, here's a list to look back on, thanks to Chicagojk.

Looking through that list, I notice no Wagler or Flemings. It didn't take long for people to start talking about Flemings in the Top-10, then Wagler followed shortly after.

[Winter]

Yep, here's a list to look back on, thanks to Chicagojk.

Looking through that list, I notice no Wagler or Flemings. It didn't take long for people to start talking about Flemings in the Top-10, then Wagler followed shortly after.

Caleb Wilson is at 16!!! And it doesn't appear Flemings is even on the list.

[Smitty]

Caleb Wilson is at 16!!!

To be fair, it's preseason rankings and Sam Vecenie did say 4-17 were in the same tier

But the reason for posting it, was to agree with Mavs2021's point that "Large part of the draft is confirmation bias and the scouts will look for players to confirm their initial assessments and those had Brown and Ament as the next tier." Not that every scout has the same ranking, just that those two in particular were up there!

[Smitty]

@ArtTakesNotes
AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer are special offensive prospects I compared them to other wings taken in the Top-5 of the NBA Draft since 2016:

[Dirknows]

@ArtTakesNotes
AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer are special offensive prospects I compared them to other wings taken in the Top-5 of the NBA Draft since 2016:

Top-120 comp. is like majority of the schedule for high-level D1 teams. I'd be curious to see what these numbers looked like vs. top-25 teams.

[Smitty]

@TheFieldOf68

Bill Self on Darryn Peterson:

"He hasn't finished games... The bottom line is, there is a way to change the narrative: Play. Finish. That's the way to get people to quit talking."

[vfromlmf]

I’m out on Peterson. Red flag Flutz level bust potential