MAVS NEWS:

[KillerLeft]

Jason Timpf on Cooper Flagg's rookie impact and a comparison to Tatum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgsei40fj2A

The comp to Tatum is so fascinating to me. 

On one hand, it's a huge compliment, because Tatum is a VERY polished offensive player. On the other hand, I think I'd almost be disappointed if Flagg isn't better than Tatum, honestly. Don't get me wrong, he's got quite a long way to go to even reach the full Tatum arsenal, but...idk, I've just never watched a Celtics game and felt like Tatum was a particularly impactful player. I know the numbers will say he is, and I'm in no way trying to suggest he's not great. I just never thought of him as overtly scary to opponents the way Luka, Jokic, SGA or even Anthony Edwards are, just to name a few. There's just something missing for me. I actually think Flagg could be not as good as Tatum in some ways and somehow still be better at the same time, if that makes any sense (probably doesn't).

[meistermatze]

The comp to Tatum is so fascinating to me. 

On one hand, it's a huge compliment, because Tatum is a VERY polished offensive player. On the other hand, I think I'd almost be disappointed if Flagg isn't better than Tatum, honestly. Don't get me wrong, he's got quite a long way to go to even reach the full Tatum arsenal, but...idk, I've just never watched a Celtics game and felt like Tatum was a particularly impactful player. I know the numbers will say he is, and I'm in no way trying to suggest he's not great. I just never thought of him as overtly scary to opponents the way Luka, Jokic, SGA or even Anthony Edwards are, just to name a few. There's just something missing for me. I actually think Flagg could be not as good as Tatum in some ways and somehow still be better at the same time, if that makes any sense (probably doesn't).

Agreed. Jayson Tatum is, to me, the epitome of a “bad” superstar. Sure, it’s better to have him than to have no superstar at all, but I think he’s clearly a tier below the true, top-level superstars. I’d put someone like Donovan Mitchell in a similar category, for example.

[F Gump]

Another note about the search for a new GM ...

For those who have wanted to laugh at my idea of Presti as the new guy in charge, the DMN is jumping on my bandwagon. They didn't mention Presti alone, but he was the 2nd name on their short list. And their article takes the very same approach I believe in - ending with the same type of people in mind - that the Mavs need an EXPERT, they have an owner with incredibly deep pockets, and he needs to hire the best. PERIOD.

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/maveri...ryl-morey/

The fact is, high level EXPERT execs at the GM level do get hired away. NBA history has example after example. Money talks, when the owner is willing to spend it.

Git 'er done. Go get Presti.

[Chicagojk]

Is there a date you need convert a two way?   With how the season is going, I will be disappointed if they don't find a way to convert at least one on a rest of the year plus a non guaranteed minimum next year.   Maybe use the next few weeks to see which veteran you want to cut loose.  Ideally giving them the opportunity to sign with a playoff team.  For me it is either Jones or Middleton.   Maybe one can stick next year, but I don't want both back.

[mvossman]

Agreed. Jayson Tatum is, to me, the epitome of a “bad” superstar. Sure, it’s better to have him than to have no superstar at all, but I think he’s clearly a tier below the true, top-level superstars. I’d put someone like Donovan Mitchell in a similar category, for example.

I wouldn't call him a "bad" superstar, but I agree he is a tier below.  He needed more talent around him to win a championship than some the top tier stars.  We are probably going to need Flagg to be in that first tier, because its asking a lot to accumulate the kind of talent around him that Tatum had.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Agreed. Jayson Tatum is, to me, the epitome of a “bad” superstar. Sure, it’s better to have him than to have no superstar at all, but I think he’s clearly a tier below the true, top-level superstars. I’d put someone like Donovan Mitchell in a similar category, for example.

Everybody has their own opinion, but when Tatum is right, he's up there with the rest. Maybe it's because Jalen Brown is just as good, and he gets overlooked.

[Scott41theMavs]

Everybody has their own opinion, but when Tatum is right, he's up there with the rest. Maybe it's because Jalen Brown is just as good, and he gets overlooked.

Nah. Tatum is a fantastic player, but there's no denying he doesn't have the pop of the top tier. 

If Boozer was far better defensively, I'd say his ceiling was Tatum. In his draft, Tatum was seen as a question mark, which is why he fell to the third pick. He far exceeded what most pundits expected of him. That steady productivity and discipline which both have might make Boozer a great NBA player (although his questionability on D negates all of the talk of this being a "three franchise player draft." Lol - NO WAY. Peterson might be an unreliable franchise player (cf. Zion, but far more reliable than that), and Dybantsa looks most likely to enter to the superstar tier, but Boozer? Nope. Bet he makes a few All-Star games, but I severely doubt he'll be seen as having been a franchise guy by the time he retires).

[KillerLeft]

Nah. Tatum is a fantastic player, but there's no denying he doesn't have the pop of the top tier. 

Yeah...but I can't quite put my finger on why this is. Is it some kind of competitive mentality that's missing? Is it just that his offensive game isn't particularly interesting? I can't figure it out, but I just don't think of him as a top player, despite him objectively being a top player.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Tatum lacks mamba mentality... He is soft.

But he is beautyful to watch and a fantistic player of course.

[Winter]

Yeah...but I can't quite put my finger on why this is. Is it some kind of competitive mentality that's missing? Is it just that his offensive game isn't particularly interesting? I can't figure it out, but I just don't think of him as a top player, despite him objectively being a top player.

I get what you're saying. It is true when I watch the Celtics play, I get fixed on Jaylen Brown at least as much as Tatum. I guess statistically Tatum is great, but is anyone invested in running to Youtube after the game to watch Tatum highlights! 

I mean if you're not a Celtic fan, he's just a very good player.

[cow]

Yeah...but I can't quite put my finger on why this is. Is it some kind of competitive mentality that's missing? Is it just that his offensive game isn't particularly interesting? I can't figure it out, but I just don't think of him as a top player, despite him objectively being a top player.

What's the popular saying?  There are levels to this.  

I really think it comes down to his personality which seems a little...aloof?

[KillerLeft]

What's the popular saying?  There are levels to this.  

I really think it comes down to his personality which seems a little...aloof?

You might be onto something there.

[F Gump]

Is there a date you need convert a two way?   With how the season is going, I will be disappointed if they don't find a way to convert at least one on a rest of the year plus a non guaranteed minimum next year.   Maybe use the next few weeks to see which veteran you want to cut loose.  Ideally giving them the opportunity to sign with a playoff team.  For me it is either Jones or Middleton.   Maybe one can stick next year, but I don't want both back.

It would be a negotiation (since it's a new contract). That has some factors in play which you didn't ask, but which factor into what might happen. IMO the path forward is NOT obvious. 

1 The earlier you do a conversion after the 2-way NBA eligibility (which is NBA level pay) has run out, the more extra money the player gets. 
2 If you don't convert the deal at all, then he stays your GL player after his NBA eligibility ends, for the rest of the season. 
3 If you have him in GL while the new guys play, he is not using up any NBA eligibility. And he gets more minutes to work on his game. 
4 The conversion can be to ANY contract you can legally offer, so it can be up to 4 seasons (remainder of this, plus 3 more, if you have an exception that allows that). IIRC the Mavs have no exception other than minimum which is 2 years.
5 The player wants an NBA contract and it would be unlikely they would say no to anything offered. But not impossible -- he might prefer to test free agency in the summer.
6 Mavs have no real need to convert anyone. There's no benefit to this team UNLESS they are getting a future year. 
7 Mavs might prefer to have the player back as a 2 way next year, which is only possible if he is NOT converted to an NBA deal for next season.
8 When the player becomes a free agent, he will be RFA. 

Back to the question of the last day possible for a conversion, it would be the last day a contract can be offered, so it would be prior to the last game of the season. But all the factors above tell me that would not be the plan. 

FWIW, last season BWill got converted with about 5 games left, and another season. But that was hampered by financial restraints that aren't likely to be in play this season. 

They do have a need to stay under the tax line, but iirc they have enough cushion to comfortably do 2 conversions with room to spare.

[Chicagojk]

Cooper out tomorrow.  Next two games are road games against the Pacers and Nets.  Then they get the Kings and Grizz at home.   There doesn't appear to be many "wins" in March after a quick glance.

https://x.com/christianpclark/status/202...4964893823

[Scott41theMavs]

Cooper out tomorrow.  Next two games are road games against the Pacers and Nets.  Then they get the Kings and Grizz at home.   There doesn't appear to be many "wins" in March after a quick glance.

https://x.com/christianpclark/status/202...4964893823

Our draft odds depend on him sitting for at the very least the first three of those games. I don't think that the Grizz will catch us regardless.

[loki]

Our draft odds depend on him sitting for at the very least the first three of those games. I don't think that the Grizz will catch us regardless.

It could be the most critical stretch of the year. Sitting at 7 sounds okay, but that gives them a 34.1% shot at falling to 8 (and only a 19.7% chance to stay put at 7).

[F Gump]

Sitting at 7 sounds okay, but that gives them a 34.1% shot at falling to 8 (and only a 19.7% chance to stay put at 7).

Yeah, this ^ gets overlooked a lot in the discussions. If you have a strong goal of "no less than ___", then to have a strong (although less than certain) chance to get that, you have to enter the lottery at about no worse than 2 slots better. Even that route, where you tank and "overshoot" your real target by a couple of slots, offers no guarantee.

The Mavs current lottery slot is 7. If they enter the lottery at 7, their most likely outcome is 8th (about 34%) and about 14% to land 9-11. They would have total odds of a bit better than 50-50 to land 1,2,3,4, or stay the same at 7, but also about 50-50 to get worse than 7.

If the Mavs cut-off line where they want to draft is 7, they need to be in lottery slot 5 or better. At 5, their most likely outcome is 7th (about 27%) and they have total odds of about 64% to exceed their goal and land 1-6 and about 9% to fail and land 8-9. To be GUARANTEED to get no worse than 7, they have to enter the lottery at seed 3 or better.

And if the Mavs cut-off line where they want to draft is 6, they want to be in lottery slot 4 or better. At 4, their most likely outcome is 6th (about 26%) and they have total odds of about 55% to land 1-5 and about 19% to land 7-8.  To be GUARANTEED to get no worse than 6, they have to enter the lottery at seed 2 or better.

Fortunately, the Mavs know all this. UN-fortunately, so does every other team in the top 10 of the tanking race.

[Chicagojk]

https://archive.ph/p51kv