Building Around Cooper: A Backward-Looking Thought Experiment

[Smitty]

Agree with this as well.  If you get a forward in the draft, then you are eventually going to need to find (likely via trade) a high level guard to replace Kyrie.  I really hope BPA is a guard.  Less chance to overlap with Flagg.  Perfect fit to backup up Kyrie and then eventually take over.  I think you are more likely to contend with Flagg + elite guard and high level role players than Flagg + elite forward and role players.

It just leans into Chicagojk’s Boston model. There’s more than one way to build a team. I’m not disagreeing necessarily. I want a franchise Guard in this draft as much as the next guy. But picking DSJ when we passed on an OG Anunoby (using the ‘17 draft as an example) isn’t the way to go either. It’s not the greatest example but the one that comes to mind. I think you get my point.

[F Gump]

A player to consider - Collin Gillespie, PG, PHX
Has much of the traits the Mavs need, except he isn't big
Will be UFA this summer, coming off a low salary, uncertain how much he will command
Mavs can obviously offer MLE (15.1M) but also have avenues to offer more if PHX is not committed to paying him (via SNT)

Is he gettable?

[Jakeospikez]

The Boston model was overwhelming talent.  They had 4 guys in the starting lineup who could shoot, defend, create for others and create (to different degrees) for themselves.  Every one of those guys would be easy to fit on any team and would be top 3 on Mavs roster by a mile.  The hope is we get a guy like that in this draft, and they will likely need to trade for another one.  My guess is Mavs will have to go the OKC model, with two or three really good players, and surround them with quality role players (3&D, defensive center, etc.).

According to most PJ haters, Boston wouldn't have good shooters. Jaylen Brown has tons of terrible years shooting 3s. Derrick White is 39%/32% this year, is he a trash floor spacer? Guess Derrick White is back to his Spurs ways where he couldn't shoot 3s anywhere remotely close to 40%. Obviously not, teams aren't going to let Jaylen Brown take wide open 3s even if he's shooting 32% on the year.

There's still some Moreyball-itis infections lingering it seems. Daryl Morey has 0 championships and hasn't even made a finals. He's less successful than Nico Harrison. Did people actually like the Luka/Brunson/Dinwiddie mavs team? Having both DFS and Bullock as high minutes starters led to very ugly offense. I wouldn't want to do that again. But yeah dunks/layups are as important if not more than 3s are so can't neglect those.

Age also isn't nearly as destructive as it was in the past. Sports science is just that much better I guess. Elite players are still quality starters going into their mid-late 30s. Even excluding KD coming off a torn achilles since he's got bs length to shoot over people, you still have Curry/Butler/Harden. Harden at 36 is still WAY better than Darius Garland that's why they traded for him. Kyrie is one of the most skilled players in the history of the game, maybe the most skilled handler of all time. He's on the level of those guys and should still be a quality starter even 3 years from now.

I originally thought it'd be a terrible idea for the Mavs to trade for Al Horford a long time ago when those reports came out due to him being already like 32? years old. Turns out I was very wrong, Horford was an elite stretch 4/5 into his late 30s and he's 39 now and still solid even.

Stretch 5 will be a million times more beneficial to spacing for Flagg than some replacement for PJ that shoots 40% from 3. Would have been nice in a tanking year to let Lively just launch 3s at will.

Definitely agreed on Gafford though, he needs a heavy P&R offense with a Luka type player, so he needs to be traded. Naji not bad to sell high on but he's fine to keep if no good deal is out there.

[Smitty]

I put this list together because we talk about adding guys via MLE or TPE and wanted to see who those guys actually were.

UFA's that could be potential gets with the MLE:

Guards              Wings                Bigs
McCollum          LeBron             Vucevic
Simons             T. Harris          M. Robinson
Sexton             Hachimura         Landale
C. White            K. Ellis              
Grimes             Middleton*                
Dosunmo          Kuminga (TO)             
Gillespie                                                                                   
Alvarado (PO) 


RFA's that could be potential gets:
J. Ivey
P. Watson
B. Mathurin
T. Eason


Trade options with the TPE or MLE:
Josh Hart $20.9M
Monk $20.2M
Curuso $19.5M 
Nembhard $19.5M 
Dort $18.2M (TO) 
G. Allen $18.1M
Strus $16.6M 
Schroder $14.8M
Lavert $14.8M
Moody $12.5M 
Isaiah Joe $11.3M
Nesmith $11.0M
McConnell $11.0M
A. Black $10.1M

Knowing the names now, who and why should the Mavs prioritize this summer?

A player to consider - Collin Gillespie, PG, PHX
Has much of the traits the Mavs need, except he isn't big
Will be UFA this summer, coming off a low salary, uncertain how much he will command
Mavs can obviously offer MLE (15.1M) but also have avenues to offer more if PHX is not committed to paying him (via SNT)

Is he gettable?

He’s on the list!

[Jakeospikez]

It just leans into Chicagojk’s Boston model. There’s more than one way to build a team. I’m not disagreeing necessarily. I want a franchise Guard in this draft as much as the next guy. But picking DSJ when we passed on an OG Anunoby (using the ‘17 draft as an example) isn’t the way to go either. It’s not the greatest example but the one that comes to mind. I think you get my point.

OG tore his acl in college, main reason he fell.

[F Gump]

It just leans into Chicagojk’s Boston model. There’s more than one way to build a team. I’m not disagreeing necessarily. I want a franchise Guard in this draft as much as the next guy. But picking DSJ when we passed on an OG Anunoby (using the ‘17 draft as an example) isn’t the way to go either. It’s not the greatest example but the one that comes to mind. I think you get my point.

The DSJ blunder wasn't one of Mavs prioritizing the wrong position, to their detriment. Instead it was a general failure in their scouting and evaluation, to identify a player who would be good. And no way the Mavs were picking between DSJ and OG -- those 2 players were selected about 15 picks apart. As I recall, the alternates we most talked about included Markkanen, Ntilikina, Monk, Mitchell.

In regard to the 2026 draft, you talk repeatedly about getting a wing and how a PG might be a bad pick, but frankly I'm not convinced those wing guys that might be available are any more of a sure thing than the PG guys in that general range. It's a crap shoot. Those perhaps-available wings to draft also have huge question marks.

[F Gump]

He’s on the list!

Yep. Looking again at that list, re PGs, if not Gillespie, then the only one who is of much interest to me would be Dosunmo also a UFA, and not sure if he's really a PG.

The problem with those guys is that you have to draft BEFORE you know who you can land as a FA. If you don't land the guy you want as a FA, there's no way to go back and redo the draft to get your PG. 

I think if they drafted a PG, I would still want them to land Gillespie if they could.

[Chicagojk]

Gillespie, like others, is a perfect example how success is not always a straight line.  The ones who fight, continue to get better, find a way to stick around/fit in, be a good teammate sometimes find a way.  When you get a chance, you take advantage of it.  Even if it takes a few years.

Albeit different, I really believe Nembhard has some of these characteristics.    It is a tough road though, and not everyone catches a break.



from a post in 2022....1 out of 3 not bad

Alondis Williams.  Just a fantastic passer.  ACC player of the year this past offseason.  Mavs have Moses Wright on a two year contract who was the former ACC player of the year.  Williams is probably a middle to late second round pick.  And with being a older prospect, he could go undrafted.

https://youtu.be/60d3Flu0QX8


Two other potential undrafted guys for me is Cockburn at Illinois.  Players with his build and skill set typically do not make it in todays nba.  Could he find a niche similar to Gafford?

https://youtu.be/jmA6MpsVv78

I also have a soft spot for Collin Gillespie.  He doesn’t have the athletic traits to be a high level nba player.  But these are the type of guys who just find a way.

https://youtu.be/tCRbrjYYU1Y


If any of these guys go undrafted, they are interesting guys to target.

[mvossman]

According to most PJ haters, Boston wouldn't have good shooters. Jaylen Brown has tons of terrible years shooting 3s. Derrick White is 39%/32% this year, is he a trash floor spacer? Guess Derrick White is back to his Spurs ways where he couldn't shoot 3s anywhere remotely close to 40%. Obviously not, teams aren't going to let Jaylen Brown take wide open 3s even if he's shooting 32% on the year.

There's still some Moreyball-itis infections lingering it seems. Daryl Morey has 0 championships and hasn't even made a finals. He's less successful than Nico Harrison. Did people actually like the Luka/Brunson/Dinwiddie mavs team? Having both DFS and Bullock as high minutes starters led to very ugly offense. I wouldn't want to do that again. But yeah dunks/layups are as important if not more than 3s are so can't neglect those.

Age also isn't nearly as destructive as it was in the past. Sports science is just that much better I guess. Elite players are still quality starters going into their mid-late 30s. Even excluding KD coming off a torn achilles since he's got bs length to shoot over people, you still have Curry/Butler/Harden. Harden at 36 is still WAY better than Darius Garland that's why they traded for him. Kyrie is one of the most skilled players in the history of the game, maybe the most skilled handler of all time. He's on the level of those guys and should still be a quality starter even 3 years from now.

I originally thought it'd be a terrible idea for the Mavs to trade for Al Horford a long time ago when those reports came out due to him being already like 32? years old. Turns out I was very wrong, Horford was an elite stretch 4/5 into his late 30s and he's 39 now and still solid even.

Stretch 5 will be a million times more beneficial to spacing for Flagg than some replacement for PJ that shoots 40% from 3. Would have been nice in a tanking year to let Lively just launch 3s at will.

Definitely agreed on Gafford though, he needs a heavy P&R offense with a Luka type player, so he needs to be traded. Naji not bad to sell high on but he's fine to keep if no good deal is out there.

I don't consider myself a PJ hater although this looks directed towards me and the few others who dare question trading PJ.

Brown is a wildly better offensive creator than PJ.  He is not a role player, he is one of your primary creators.

White is having a rough shooting year.  Like PJ, he is being asked to create a lot more offense and its affecting his shot.  The big difference is he is still creating for others at an efficient clip (5.5 assists to 1.8 TO).  That is something PJ does not provide.

The fact that some players can play into their mid to late 30s does not mean all can.  I would be curious to see the math on expected player longevity.  My guess is you are pointing out the exceptions and ignoring the general rule regarding player decline.

Versatile players is fine if you have the cap/assets for them, but for a role player spacing and defense are top priority and after that its the ability to create for others.  Creating for themselves on low efficiency is just not something I highly value.

[Smitty]

OG tore his acl in college, main reason he fell.

I just picked that draft because I wanted to use DSJ to make my point

Still, my overall point is that yes the Mavs would hit an absolute home run if they pick a Guard and he’s everything and more. BUT if the Mavs pick a Wing/Forward it’s okay too. If he’s everything and more.

Don’t pick need over best available. Stick to your board. It’s my small push back on the ones that keep saying Mavs must draft a Guard no matter what.

[Chicagojk]

He’s on the list!

I put this list together because we talk about adding guys via MLE or TPE and wanted to see who those guys actually were.

UFA's that could be potential gets with the MLE:

Guards              Wings                Bigs
McCollum          LeBron             Vucevic
Simons             T. Harris          M. Robinson
Sexton             Hachimura         Landale
C. White            K. Ellis              
Grimes             Middleton*                
Dosunmo          Kuminga (TO)             
Gillespie                                                                                   
Alvarado (PO) 


RFA's that could be potential gets:
J. Ivey
P. Watson
B. Mathurin
T. Eason


Trade options with the TPE or MLE:
Josh Hart $20.9M
Monk $20.2M
Curuso $19.5M 
Nembhard $19.5M 
Dort $18.2M (TO) 
G. Allen $18.1M
Strus $16.6M 
Schroder $14.8M
Lavert $14.8M
Moody $12.5M 
Isaiah Joe $11.3M
Nesmith $11.0M
McConnell $11.0M
A. Black $10.1M

Knowing the names now, who and why should the Mavs prioritize this summer?

***************

Man, I am not crazy about many on that list.   White, Grimes or Ayo maybe.    If Ayo plays well though, I'd imagine Minny keeps him.    I view White and Grimes as bench guards.  I don't think either would be excited about that.  

I can't imagine Eason or Mathurin are gettable by the Mavs.   Ivey would interest me as a upside pick, but the Bulls may just keep him if he plays well.  Thats about it for me though.  So what happens if we don't use the MLE this year?

[F Gump]

On another topic ...

The more I think about it, the more I do NOT want Cuban as the owner again.

We know who he is. He wants to do the roster-building. He wants to show he's the smartest guy in the room. He wants to hire the discount GM. Maybe even one who has never been a GM - even just a shoe salesman.

I want NONE of that. So I don't want Cuban. Love the guy's passion, but hate his business model for the Mavs.

And if we are to ever get Presti, Dumont might hire him --- but Cuban never would. No thanks.

[Jakeospikez]

I don't consider myself a PJ hater although this looks directed towards me and the few others who dare question trading PJ.

Brown is a wildly better offensive creator than PJ.  He is not a role player, he is one of your primary creators.

White is having a rough shooting year.  Like PJ, he is being asked to create a lot more offense and its affecting his shot.  The big difference is he is still creating for others at an efficient clip (5.5 assists to 1.8 TO).  That is something PJ does not provide.

The fact that some players can play into their mid to late 30s does not mean all can.  I would be curious to see the math on expected player longevity.  My guess is you are pointing out the exceptions and ignoring the general rule regarding player decline.

Versatile players is fine if you have the cap/assets for them, but for a role player spacing and defense are top priority and after that its the ability to create for others.  Creating for themselves on low efficiency is just not something I highly value.

Nah not directed at anyone in particular. The trade PJ crowd is actually outnumbering the keep PJ crowd these days it seems. Trying to at least get him some backing to see how things go next season without dropping him in the offseason is all.

I'd guess the stats for HoF caliber players is good for playing into their mid-late 30s recently. Older stats I'd invalidate due to modern sports science being a big factor.

It's definitely more normal to have a good amount of veterans on championship teams, the Jrue Milwaukee example was good. OKC being as young as they are I'd say is the rare exception.

[KillerLeft]

Nah not directed at anyone in particular. The trade PJ crowd is actually outnumbering the keep PJ crowd these days it seems. Trying to at least get him some backing to see how things go next season without dropping him in the offseason is all.

I think you make some good points, and I don't think you're being harsh at all, but...I think it's important that we pause and take a second to realize that MOST of the "trade PJ crowd" are pretty big PJW fans. There are very few of us here who don't think he's a heck of a good player.

[vfromlmf]

I don’t think it’s hard.

You trade PJW if you think you’re getting an upgrade over PJW … OR if you think you’re getting a shot at a major upgrade via the draft that’s worth the risk. I’m not worried about his salary given the current structure.

Klay and Naji are expiring anyway so they’ll likely be gone or used to do something else. That’s $27 mil.

I see this as year one of a three year turnaround project.

The ONLY player I’m confident will be on this roster when the team is ready to compete is Cooper Flagg. If some of the current guys are still around, awesome.

[KillerLeft]

I don’t think it’s hard.

You trade PJW if you think you’re getting an upgrade over PJW … OR if you think you’re getting a shot at a major upgrade via the draft that’s worth the risk. I’m not worried about his salary given the current structure.

Klay and Naji are expiring anyway so they’ll likely be gone or used to do something else. That’s $27 mil.

I see this as year one of a three year turnaround project.

The ONLY player I’m confident will be on this roster when the team is ready to compete is Cooper Flagg. If some of the current guys are still around, awesome.

I agree, but would pushback ever so slightly on the word "upgrade." I'm not 100% sure they can get "upgrades" in talent by trading PJW, Gafford or anyone else (they might be able to, might not), especially since they're ideally also targeting younger players. But, I'm supremely confident that what should matter more is how the players fit together, and I'm reasonably confident that the right fit makes players "upgrades," FUNCTIONALLY speaking. It's kind of a semantic debate, because I think most here would see the results (of the right sort of trades) and assume the new players were better, whether they were or not. 

Again, I think complementary players on a bad team or even next to the wrong great player can seem pretty underwhelming basically right away. I can't help but view everything through that lens, right or wrong.

[vfromlmf]

I agree with fit I just think this team has bigger problems than PJ’s fit. One of those problems is PJ is playing like crap right now and I don’t think it’s Cooper Flagg’s fault. The other big and probably related problem is they’re playing borderline NBA guards. And yet another problem is Lively is hurt, Gafford is playing like crap and we’ve run Powell and a two-way for rotation minutes over most of the year. And yet another problem bigger than PJ is Klay and Martin are getting major rotation minutes.

When I think about fit and look at the 6 rotation wings, who “fits” best next to Flagg?

You might say Christie because he shoots 3s. But I might counter that Christie looks like Luke Kennard.

PJ has been a high minute starter on a Finals team. I know he has it in him. You can try to upgrade him but there are bigger fish to fry IMHO.

[KillerLeft]

I agree with fit I just think this team has bigger problems than PJ’s fit. One of those problems is PJ is playing like crap right now and I don’t think it’s Cooper Flagg’s fault. The other big and probably related problem is they’re playing borderline NBA guards. And yet another problem is Lively is hurt, Gafford is playing like crap and we’ve run Powell and a two-way for rotation minutes over most of the year. And yet another problem bigger than PJ is Klay and Martin are getting major rotation minutes.

When I think about fit and look at the 6 rotation wings, who “fits” best next to Flagg?

You might say Christie because he shoots 3s. But I might counter that Christie looks like Luke Kennard.

PJ has been a high minute starter on a Finals team. I know he has it in him. You can try to upgrade him but there are bigger fish to fry IMHO.

I don't disagree on any particular point, really. 

I just think (with respect) you might still be in a touch of denial about how LONG it's going to take to fix all of that. Now, they truly have a 19 year old best player - the AD trade made it triple official. I just think we were all in the bargaining phase of mourning when we convinced ourselves rookie Flagg could be dropped into an already assembled team and they could compete, healthy or not. I think the reality is that when your best player changes, your team starts over, at least in some key ways. 

PJW, Gafford, Thompson, Marshall, Kyrie...none of them are "too old" to be good right now, today, but I think they might ALL be too old to be part of the NEXT great Mavs team. There are reasons to keep good, key vets around, sure - no argument with that, whatsoever. But, the key vets I'd be in favor of keeping around would at least be able to form synergistic lineups with Flagg to close games. Otherwise, they'd all just be Dwight Powell types, right? The rest, once you're thinking like I'm thinking (not that you have to, I'm just saying "if") really need to be turned into more helpful tools (younger players, draft capital, whatever) at the HIGHEST possible point in their value. 

Since I don't think PJW, Marshall or possibly even Gafford fit here like they used to, my strong instinct is that they're going to lose value, and pretty quickly. 

I think, personally, the smart thing is to find a way to completely remake the team around Flagg. I think there might be shortcuts available, but for me the AD trade signals the end of hope for the kind of EXTREME shortcut we were hoping to see. I doubt the Mavs win a championship with any of those guys on the roster - straight up. I could be wrong, obviously, but I've reached the conclusion that trying to remake a team built around Luka with as little turnover as some are hoping might be a little like trying to turn the Titanic away from the iceberg at top speed.

EDIT: I'm also reminded of a bold prediction Kammrath made during his final days in this community that ultimately ended up being true. He predicted that Harrison would almost completely turnover the roster within the first two years of his tenure, citing his observation that many new GM's tried to make teams more "theirs" when they got the jobs. I thought he was crazy at the time, but he was right. That's exactly what happened. I see no reason not to expect the same from the next GM, no matter who it is...even if they're already here, frankly.

[vfromlmf]

It’s just a matter of timing and priorities. I don’t think bottoming out next year is a great plan. The good rotation players on the team can help avoid that. But I absolutely agree, you trade PJW or really anyone on the roster if there’s a deal out there that makes sense.

[KillerLeft]

It’s just a matter of timing and priorities. I don’t think bottoming out next year is a great plan. The good rotation players on the team can help avoid that. But I absolutely agree, you trade PJW or really anyone on the roster if there’s a deal out there that makes sense.

Agreed on all the above. 

I know that when you use the term "bottoming out" you're referring to the willful act of having a likely poor record by playing mostly young, raw players. I get it, and I agree, I wouldn't go to that extreme. 

However, incentive or no incentive...what I'm saying is that they might not have as much agency in determining their destiny as we assume. They don't even have the player who's going to run their offense when they're next good on the roster yet, I don't think. There's a decent chance that player is ANOTHER 19 year old a year from now. They might be baaaaad next year, whether they want to be or not.