Building Around Cooper: A Backward-Looking Thought Experiment

[mvossman]

I put this list together because we talk about adding guys via MLE or TPE and wanted to see who those guys actually were.

UFA's that could be potential gets with the MLE:

Guards              Wings                Bigs
McCollum          LeBron             Vucevic
Simons             T. Harris          M. Robinson
Sexton             Hachimura         Landale
C. White            K. Ellis              
Grimes             Middleton*                
Dosunmo          Kuminga (TO)             
Gillespie                                                                                   
Alvarado (PO) 


RFA's that could be potential gets:
J. Ivey
P. Watson
B. Mathurin
T. Eason


Trade options with the TPE or MLE:
Josh Hart $20.9M
Monk $20.2M
Curuso $19.5M 
Nembhard $19.5M 
Dort $18.2M (TO) 
G. Allen $18.1M
Strus $16.6M 
Schroder $14.8M
Lavert $14.8M
Moody $12.5M 
Isaiah Joe $11.3M
Nesmith $11.0M
McConnell $11.0M
A. Black $10.1M


I don't mean to imply that all of the UFA's will accept that little or that some of the lower tier will cost that much, just the list of names available. 
I don't mean to imply that the RFA's are available or realistic gets, just that they are restricted free agents. 
I don't mean to imply that the players listed in the TPE/MLE trade section means the other team will be willing to trade them to get off their money, or that the Mavs should go after them, just that they fit in the salary slot available to the Mavs.
Of course, there are a number of SnT/Trade options out there but didn't feel the need to get into all of that.

Knowing the names now, who and why should the Mavs prioritize this summer?

That list of wings is ugly.  I like some of the RFA guys.  A big question is does this team need a 6th man type player?  I wonder if Kyrie won't transition into that role in a year or two?  I also wonder if any of the good ones will be available for the MLE?  Normally the MLE is a great way to get 3&D guys, but there are not a lot on your list.

[vfromlmf]

I tend to think of a traditional 6th man sort of how I think about a traditional 3&D player. They're out of style. The best teams these days come in you with relentless waves of talent. They're young, athletic, big, disruptive defensively and you have to guard them or any one of them can drop 25 on any given night. Think OKC. Think Indiana last year.

Look at the Spurs this year. They have Fox running the show and six interchangeable guys who bring it (not to mention Wemby).

1. Champagnie 6' 7" 220 - only averages 11 but dropped 27 just two weeks ago.
2. Barnes 6' 7" 225 - averages 10 but just dropped 20 on the Mavs
3. Castle 6' 6" 215 - need I say more than 40 / 12 / 12 ?
4. Vassell listed 6' 5" 200 but notably bigger than Max - lottery pick (11) - has averaged 20 over a whole season
5. K Johnson 6' 5' 220 built like a bowling ball - dropped 25 on OKC two games ago
6. Harper 6' 5" 215 - number two overall pick might become the best of them

That's what we're up against. I look at the Mavs roster and see 1. Flagg, 2. PJW, 3. Naji and maybe 4. Max who can match up with that stable of wings. 5. Martin is a try hard. 6. Klay can still shoot but brings nothing else. TBH the Mavs could use least TWO rotation wings. They can and should get one in the draft. Then maybe they can move off Klay at the trade deadline to add another.

[mvossman]

I tend to think of a traditional 6th man sort of how I think about a traditional 3&D player. They're out of style. The best teams these days come in you with relentless waves of talent. They're young, athletic, big, disruptive defensively and you have to guard them or any one of them can drop 25 on any given night. Think OKC. Think Indiana last year.

Look at the Spurs this year. They have Fox running the show and six interchangeable guys who bring it (not to mention Wemby).

1. Champagnie 6' 7" 220 - only averages 11 but dropped 27 just two weeks ago.
2. Barnes 6' 7" 225 - averages 10 but just dropped 20 on the Mavs
3. Castle 6' 6" 215 - need I say more than 40 / 12 / 12 ?
4. Vassell listed 6' 5" 200 but notably bigger than Max - lottery pick (11) - has averaged 20 over a whole season
5. K Johnson 6' 5' 220 built like a bowling ball - dropped 25 on OKC two games ago
6. Harper 6' 5" 215 - number two overall pick might become the best of them

That's what we're up against. I look at the Mavs roster and see 1. Flagg, 2. PJW, 3. Naji and maybe 4. Max who can match up with that stable of wings. 5. Martin is a try hard. 6. Klay can still shoot but brings nothing else. TBH the Mavs could use least TWO rotation wings. They can and should get one in the draft. Then maybe they can move off Klay at the trade deadline to add another.

The entire OKC model is a few great players and 3&D wings.  Dort, Wallace, Wiggins, Joe and Caruso are all basically 3&D players.  Champagnie, Barnes and Vassell are all primarily 3&D players.  If anything, those rosters scream that 3&D is crucial to success.  Next to elite creation, that is this teams second biggest need.

[vfromlmf]

It's just labels but I get your point. When I think 3&D I think of a guy who plays defense and runs to the corners. Mavs favorite DFS was a 3&D guy. Reggie Bullock. The OG was Bruce Bowen. All those players you listed are way more versatile than that. Vassell averaged 20 ppg. Dort averaged 17 and is a beast.

Max Christie is better than Isiah Joe though.

[F Gump]

TBH the Mavs could use least TWO rotation wings. They can and should get one in the draft. 

I am not quite sure what you are saying here, but if you are thinking that the Mavs should ONLY use the lottery pick on a "wing" and if by "wing" you are excluding any and all PGs, then count me out. 

This draft is strong in PG types to run an offense and more. While Kyrie can fill that need when healthy, there's a huge hole in that area for the Mavs. Yes CF is doing some of that, and so is Naji, but if they can find a 2-way ball-handling guy who can shoot well and distribute, it would be huge. 

That sort of guy is NOT on the FA lists. Jones, Nemby, etc each have huge issues.

If that guy wasn't really there in the draft, then yeah, get a guy who can play. But it looks like there will be choices galore. Peterson, Flemings, Brown, Philon, Acuff are all top-15 guys. The combine measurements will help sort them better, but if the Mavs pick wisely, they should have no problem getting a good one.

[Scott41theMavs]

I am not quite sure what you are saying here, but if you are thinking that the Mavs should ONLY use the lottery pick on a "wing" and if by "wing" you are excluding any and all PGs, then count me out. 

This draft is strong in PG types to run an offense and more. While Kyrie can fill that need when healthy, there's a huge hole in that area for the Mavs. Yes CF is doing some of that, and so is Naji, but if they can find a 2-way ball-handling guy who can shoot well and distribute, it would be huge. 

That sort of guy is NOT on the FA lists. Jones, Nemby, etc each have huge issues.

If that guy wasn't really there in the draft, then yeah, get a guy who can play. But it looks like there will be choices galore. Peterson, Flemings, Brown, Philon, Acuff are all top-15 guys. The combine measurements will help sort them better, but if the Mavs pick wisely, they should have no problem getting a good one.

I still believe that the Mavs are in zero position to do anything but BPA.

[vfromlmf]

100% agree. BPA. If it’s a PG I just hope he’s on the bigger side so he can get more minutes when Kyrie is on the floor. Ky’s probably in the game for 34. Do you count Dylan Harper as a PG? If yes then count me in.

[cow]

Should he return to form, ideally, my hope is that we trade Kyrie amicably. That said, if he wants to stay here, I wouldn't mind that either. He's meshed with the Mavs better than just about anyone could have imagined.

[Jakeospikez]

The trade PJ crowd will probably have to wait for a bit at minimum, his value is low right now. What could you possibly get for him? Maybe if they end up drafting Boozer/Wilson/Ament or something and there's no minutes for him you accept the value loss. He definitely is a player that needs to be like the 4th/5th option and he can't be that right now but it's fine for the tank tbh. His defense with Flagg has looked great and he is a great matchup against smallball teams. PJ small ball 5 vs Golden State earlier this year was great. He'll need his value rebuilt some if he's truly not a fit with Flagg. I think he'll be fine with Kyrie and with Flagg further developed plus hopefully some top guard prospect. 6th man is mostly just your 3rd playmaker these days, maybe the draft pick takes that role early on next season.

[Smitty]

That list of wings is ugly.

Yeah, the Guard options are much more attractive to me as well. 

That’s why I can’t dismiss the team taking a Wing with the Top-10 FRP and then trading an actual good Wing, like Naji or PJ, (because there aren’t any good ones on the market for those other teams either), for one of those guards via SnT. 
Or… another guard under contract, with the combination of the guys that have some value: Klay (expiring), Naji, PJW, Gafford. 
And/or simply signing one of the UFA’s with the MLE.

The next GM will have a good look at the whole landscape. The FRP will help set the plan for the Summer. The Mavs have a lot of options with their newfound financial flexibility.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The trade PJ crowd will probably have to wait for a bit at minimum, his value is low right now. What could you possibly get for him? Maybe if they end up drafting Boozer/Wilson/Ament or something and there's no minutes for him you accept the value loss. 

I think he'll be fine with Kyrie and with Flagg further developed plus hopefully some top guard prospect. 6th man is mostly just your 3rd playmaker these days, maybe the draft pick takes that role early on next season.

If one of those guys is your pick (especially Wilson or Ament), he probably comes off the bench to start.  That would fit your theory about giving PJ time to rebuild value.  BTW, Ament is now going 8th on the Tankathon mock draft, which is about the spot the top PG's run out in the current mock.

[mvossman]

If one of those guys is your pick (especially Wilson or Ament), he probably comes off the bench to start.  That would fit your theory about giving PJ time to rebuild value.  BTW, Ament is now going 8th on the Tankathon mock draft, which is about the spot the top PG's run out in the current mock.

All the more reason why 7th pick is so much better than 9th.  I hate the entire concept of tanking, but it just makes so much sense right now, and it helps that there is no point after this season.

[loki]

The trade PJ crowd will probably have to wait for a bit at minimum, his value is low right now. What could you possibly get for him? Maybe if they end up drafting Boozer/Wilson/Ament or something and there's no minutes for him you accept the value loss. He definitely is a player that needs to be like the 4th/5th option and he can't be that right now but it's fine for the tank tbh. His defense with Flagg has looked great and he is a great matchup against smallball teams. PJ small ball 5 vs Golden State earlier this year was great. He'll need his value rebuilt some if he's truly not a fit with Flagg. I think he'll be fine with Kyrie and with Flagg further developed plus hopefully some top guard prospect. 6th man is mostly just your 3rd playmaker these days, maybe the draft pick takes that role early on next season.

I don't think PJ's value disappears overnight after playing on a dysfunctional team for a season. Obviously you won't be selling high, but I still think he would be interesting to teams like the Bulls, Pistons, Warriors, Lakers, and Thunder. The worst thing to do would be to hold onto him even longer while his value continues to decline playing behind Flagg. Just move on in the offseason for the best draft pick you can get.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think PJ's value disappears overnight after playing on a dysfunctional team for a season. Obviously you won't be selling high, but I still think he would be interesting to teams like the Bulls, Pistons, Warriors, Lakers, and Thunder. The worst thing to do would be to hold onto him even longer while his value continues to decline playing behind Flagg. Just move on in the offseason for the best draft pick you can get.

It's not this his value is or has disappeared, it's that he's not a starter for every team in the league as a given. What I'm noticing more and more is that the animal known as "bench player making more than the MLE" is quickly becoming extinct and those in between the MLE and the league minimum don't seem to be all that en vogue, either. If the Mavs don't trade PJW before it becomes clear that he isn't a starter next to Flagg (I think it's clear already, but I mean really clear, I suppose) that contract might start to age like milk. As things are right now he's a pretty niche starter, and that's coming from a huge fan of his.

EDIT: I wouldn't care about the above a bit, mind you, if I felt like the Mavs were close to contention. But, I do not.

[DallasMaverick]

It's not this his value is or has disappeared, it's that he's not a starter for every team in the league as a given. What I'm noticing more and more is that the animal known as "bench player making more than the MLE" is quickly becoming extinct and those in between the MLE and the league minimum don't seem to be all that en vogue, either. If the Mavs don't trade PJW before it becomes clear that he isn't a starter next to Flagg (I think it's clear already, but I mean really clear, I suppose) that contract might start to age like milk. As things are right now he's a pretty niche starter, and that's coming from a huge fan of his.

So…

Do you consider Lu Dort a “starter”?

And, how much will he make on his next contract?

[KillerLeft]

So…

Do you consider Lu Dort a “starter”?

And, how much will he make on his next contract?

Do you consider OKC a "contender?"

[Jakeospikez]

I don't think PJ's value disappears overnight after playing on a dysfunctional team for a season. Obviously you won't be selling high, but I still think he would be interesting to teams like the Bulls, Pistons, Warriors, Lakers, and Thunder. The worst thing to do would be to hold onto him even longer while his value continues to decline playing behind Flagg. Just move on in the offseason for the best draft pick you can get.

That would be worst case scenario but I find it hard to believe his play won't improve playing with Kyrie and a further developed Flagg with another full offseason. He's 27 which is still young so not like he's at risk of aging out. I'd definitely want to see how things play out next season and act at the TDL if it just doesn't work unless there's someone that wants to trade a high teens/low 20s pick that the Mavs really believe in, or they get one of the top bigs of course.

I also don't think it's super critical to have 40%+ 3pt shooters at every spot. If they shoot well enough on open C&S 3s that the other team won't sag way off of them and make sure to contest, they're providing spacing. I wouldn't want to see another team that had multiple 3&D guys with no handles/slashing ability. There's room for 1 DFS on a team max.

[vfromlmf]

Lu Dort average 31mpg on a Championship team last year. smh

I hate to keep standing on this soapbox but starter, bench, guard, wing, 3&D, your mom’s tenpenny granny. What’s the difference?

Dort’s got flaws but dude can play

We get too hung up in roles that were defined in the 1960’s. Kidd says he just wants basketball players. Why don’t we listen?

Let’s say Flagg starts knocking down 3’s at 38%. Are you telling me he can’t play with PJ Washington?! Dude. PJ can guard 1-5. He’s a downhill driver. Strong in the paint. Can get 15ppg and 25+ if you dont guard him. Rebounds. Sets the tone with force. Sure I’d love if PJ were a knockdown shooter but he makes up for it in other areas. Taken together, there are plenty of better overall players… but PJW can play. He needs stars around him but that’s why he not a star. PJW is a HIGH END role player. Maybe the best role player on this team. You don’t dump him because he’s not a star. Kyrie and Flagg are stars. And hopefully the Mavs land another one in the draft.

[mvossman]

Lu Dort average 31mpg on a Championship team last year. smh

I hate to keep standing on this soapbox but starter, bench, guard, wing, 3&D, your mom’s tenpenny granny. What’s the difference?

Dort’s got flaws but dude can play

We get too hung up in roles that were defined in the 1960’s. Kidd says he just wants basketball players. Why don’t we listen?

Let’s say Flagg starts knocking down 3’s at 38%. Are you telling me he can’t play with PJ Washington?! Dude. PJ can guard 1-5. He’s a downhill driver. Strong in the paint. Can get 15ppg and 25+ if you dont guard him. Rebounds. Sets the tone with force. Sure I’d love if PJ were a knockdown shooter but he makes up for it in other areas. Taken together, there are plenty of better overall players… but PJW can play. He needs stars around him but that’s why he not a star. PJW is a HIGH END role player. Maybe the best role player on this team. You don’t dump him because he’s not a star. Kyrie and Flagg are stars. And hopefully the Mavs land another one in the draft.

Dort is the prototypical 3&D player.  When you say "dude can play" all he really does is play defense and shoot threes.  Those are by far the most important attributes for a role player starting on a contending team.

PJ can do a lot more things on the court offensively than Dort, but he doesn't do them efficiently.  The reality is that Dort's spacing is more helpful to a starting lineup than PJ inefficient creation.

[vfromlmf]

First of all PJW shouldn't be creating anything. He's being asked to do too much, just like Max. These are role players. Bullpen wings. Shaq's "others".

Second, fine. Swap Dort for PJW. What's that going to do for the win total?

EPM widely considered the most accurate "all-in-one" advanced metric reflecting overall impact on winning tells us .... Overall EPM:

Dort: -0.2

PJW: 1.1

Defensive Parity: Both players are performing as elite defenders this season. Dort maintains his reputation as a premier perimeter stopper with a +1.3 D-EPM, but PJ has actually graded slightly higher (+1.5) due to his superior interior rim protection and rebounding.

Offensive Gap: The primary reason Washington leads in "Wins" is his offensive floor. While both have negative O-EPM ratings (meaning they are below league average offensively), Washington’s 14.1 PPG and 7.1 RPG provide more value than Dort’s 8.7 PPG and 3.9 RPG.

Efficiency Concerns: Dort's impact is currently hampered by career-low shooting numbers (39.5% FG), which significantly drags down his Offensive EPM and total wins added.

Workload: Washington's lead is also influenced by volume; he has played more total minutes per game (30.7) compared to Dort (27.8), providing more opportunities to accumulate "wins" over a replacement player.

Now ... you can argue with EPM, which is fine, but both of these guy averaged 30+ mpg on Finals teams. Dort won a Championship. Oviously you need your Lukas, SGAs, Tatums etc., but you also need high end role players and PJW is proven to be one. I already said I'd trade him for a lottery pick but he's certainly not at the top of the list of problems. This team is relying on guards with borderline NBA talent and probably at least 2 rotation wings who are below replacement level. Powell and a two-way are getting rotation center minutes. The glaring holes are obvious.