MAVS NEWS:

[Mavs2021]

I really must live in an alternate universe.

Last 10 games.

Marshall 20/8/4 on 50/36/76
Flagg 29/9/4 on 52/34/75

compared to

23/6/4 on 50/35/70
27/8/5 on 47/38/83

That´s the Championship season numbers of Brown/Tatum.

You might not draw the final conclusion that Marshall/Flagg are a good fit, based on sample size, competitive respect from opponents and final results of the games, but to draw the conclusion that they are bad fit looking at the raw numbers seems honestly mental.

[mvossman]

I honestly have absolutely no idea how you all make judgements based on THIS season. It means absolutely NOTHING. We literally have no active NBA-level PG on the roster to sync the offense. PJ Washington is dealing with small injuries and larger personal problems. Why should his focus be on the court, when we are tanking? If anything the last few weeks have shown that Marshall and Flagg are a very good fit, despite no elite PG. They are both thriving, keeping most games competitive, while accomplishing the desired outcome: losses. If the Mavs wanted, they could have traded for just a Lavine or Simons type, and easily made the play-in imho.

They have both been better when the other is off the court.  I realize it has not been a functional offense, but its not hard to see that Flagg is dominate when he is working more inside and the same goes for Naji.  Both guys are better playing with guys that can space the floor than with a guy that likes to work in the same area.

[mvossman]

I really must live in an alternate universe.

Last 10 games.

Marshall 20/8/4 on 50/36/76
Flagg 29/9/4 on 52/34/75

compared to

23/6/4 on 50/35/70
27/8/5 on 47/38/83

That´s the Championship season numbers of Brown/Tatum.

You might not draw the final conclusion that Marshall/Flagg are a good fit, based on sample size, competitive respect from opponents and final results of the games, but to draw the conclusion that they are bad fit looking at the raw numbers seems honestly mental.

In the last 10 games, both players were better when the other was off the court.  A meaningful stat when both have been playing so well recently.

[Mavs2021]

In the last 10 games, both players were better when the other was off the court.  A meaningful stat when both have been playing so well recently.

...and that would be a problem how and why? Should we sign Jalen Smith for 10M p.a. instead, so he can average 10/4, while shooting your desired 40% from three as a floor spacer with mediocre defense.

You all made the decision that Flagg, Marshall and Washington cannot play together two months ago and now decide to hang onto this idea, like the key figure isn´t an rapidly evolving rookie that could be a completely different player in three months.

Get two rookie guards. Get another MLE guard. Get Kyrie back. Then we watch

Kyrie/M. Brown/C. Anderson
Christie/Simons/Johnson
Marshall/Martin/Thompson
Flagg/Washington/Bagley
Lively/Gafford/Cisse

...and make decisions. This equation only changes, if we get Boozer or Wilson.

[mvossman]

...and that would be a problem how and why? Should we sign Jalen Smith for 10M p.a. instead, so he can average 10/4, while shooting your desired 40% from three as a floor spacer with mediocre defense.

You all made the decision that Flagg, Marshall and Washington cannot play together two months ago and now decide to hang onto this idea, like the key figure isn´t an rapidly evolving rookie that could be a completely different player in three months.

Get two rookie guards. Get another MLE guard. Get Kyrie back. Then we watch

Kyrie/M. Brown/C. Anderson
Christie/Simons/Johnson
Marshall/Martin/Thompson
Flagg/Washington/Bagley
Lively/Gafford/Cisse

...and make decisions. This equation only changes, if we get Boozer or Wilson.

I provided basketball reasons why they are not an ideal fit and numbers that show that, including in your tiny sample.  All you are providing is counting stats for 10 games.

The argument was that it does not make sense to have both Marshall and PJ on the team.  You have PJ as a backup PF making 20 mil a year.  There is a valid argument that is not ideal use of resources.

[KillerLeft]

...and that would be a problem how and why? Should we sign Jalen Smith for 10M p.a. instead, so he can average 10/4, while shooting your desired 40% from three as a floor spacer with mediocre defense.

You all made the decision that Flagg, Marshall and Washington cannot play together two months ago and now decide to hang onto this idea, like the key figure isn´t an rapidly evolving rookie that could be a completely different player in three months.

Get two rookie guards. Get another MLE guard. Get Kyrie back. Then we watch

Kyrie/M. Brown/C. Anderson
Christie/Simons/Johnson
Marshall/Martin/Thompson
Flagg/Washington/Bagley
Lively/Gafford/Cisse

...and make decisions. This equation only changes, if we get Boozer or Wilson.

I mean...sure, you're correct about a lot of this. 

Still, I feel I've seen enough to know Flagg is going to be more of an inside player than an outside player, at least for his rookie contract. It's basketball 101 to understand that putting shooting around him will greatly enhance his game, and the team has very few shooters. I actually think this contributed somewhat to Luka's game deteriorating into mostly stepback 3's late in his time here. That started out as a great and unpredictable weapon for him and unfortunately became basically a crutch. I believe deteriorating spacing as we got farther away from the Carlisle years was a factor. 

Definitely, the guys in question are two way players and that shouldn't be taken lightly, but how "two way" can they possibly be if they aren't fits, offensively? 

I've basically gotten to the point where I'd rather not even acknowledge "counting stats" as a data point, as I believe most NBA players are capable of decent averages in any 2/3 of scoring, rebounding and assists, given enough minutes and a green light. What matters to me is synergy. Your point that we're making decisions on limited and imperfect information is a decent one, but the guys in question being able to put up counting stats doesn't move the needle for me at all.

[KillerLeft]

I will say this: despite what my head says about Marshall's fit here with Flagg, my heart struggles with the idea of moving him. Tough to imagine a more likable Maverick than this:

https://youtu.be/t1PEaJS6uHg?si=cHKqa3RvXHDE20mc

[Smitty]

I agree with a lot of the Naji concerns in regard to his fit with Flagg, and maybe even some with Washington, but it's important to keep things in perspective. The NBA is no longer about building a team that will stay together and contend for a championship for 5-6 years straight. It's about having 2-3 core guys that you constantly move pieces around each transaction cycle. Even Nico was wrong when he said 3-year window is long term, it's more like 18 months. Most of the guys that are on the roster now will not be the same ones after next years TDL. I love to talk roster building as much as the next guy, but maybe even I need to dial it back some and just focus on what's best for Flagg right now, the next 12 months. Then you reassess and make some moves around the edges. Or... if Flagg shows that he's already a top-10 guy by then, you make a more all-in swing. The biggest takeaway for me post-AD trade is that the Mavs have a ton of options now. The next GM will get a blank canvas as soon as this summer. The top pick this year will hopefully be part of that '2-3 core' with Flagg.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Naji is a perfect 6th man for a contender.

PJ fits horrible with Flagg, they will trade him at 99% next summer.

[Smitty]

@AndrewDBailey
HNI*, of every NBA player with 400+ minutes in 2025-26, sorted by the AVERAGE OF THEIR RANKS in 10 catch-alls...

Mavericks (out of 341)

78. Cooper Flagg (91.2)
93. Naji Marshall (103.6)
131. Marvin Bagley III (135.0)
154. Brandon Williams (154.3)
176. Max Christie (174.7)
188. Daniel Gafford (184.1)
218. P.J. Washington (213.1)
235. Klay Thompson (226.6)
251. Dwight Powell (237.9)
267. Caleb Martin (255.5)
281. Khris Middleton (266.3)
307. Tyus Jones (286.7)
320. Ryan Nembhard (305.0)

[F Gump]

I agree with a lot of the Naji concerns in regard to his fit with Flagg, and maybe even some with Washington, but it's important to keep things in perspective. The NBA is no longer about building a team that will stay together and contend for a championship for 5-6 years straight. It's about having 2-3 core guys that you constantly move pieces around each transaction cycle. Even Nico was wrong when he said 3-year window is long term, it's more like 18 months. Most of the guys that are on the roster now will not be the same ones after next years TDL. I love to talk roster building as much as the next guy, but maybe even I need to dial it back some and just focus on what's best for Flagg right now, the next 12 months. Then you reassess and make some moves around the edges. Or... if Flagg shows that he's already a top-10 guy by then, you make a more all-in swing. The biggest takeaway for me post-AD trade is that the Mavs have a ton of options now. The next GM will get a blank canvas as soon as this summer. The top pick this year will hopefully be part of that '2-3 core' with Flagg.

Great analysis.

To add a point that is rarely included in these discussions, I think that even without any changes at all, there are 2 looming additions that can make this look like a very different team as soon as next season, with very different dynamics: (1) Kyrie (2) pick 8 [or whatever].

While there's a lot of consternation about the mix of Flagg - Naji -PJ and how that can work, we lose sight of how limited the options are around them. But if you put 2 of them on the floor AND surround them with an all-star caliber scorer like Kyrie and also maybe some young stud from the draft, then it's possible (maybe even quite likely) the spacing, focus, defense sagging, all of it changes massively.

The Mavs want to go to a faster pace and with better shooters. That takes better players like that (not just a few Hardy's). But as you plug in those better players, there is a synergistic effect on the good (but not great) players you have and what have looked like their limits. It's a different world when you are a good player going 1 on 1 (or less) rather than 1 on 2 or 1 on 3 every time. 

I think Naji and PJ are good players. Gaff too. Maybe Max. But they aren't great ones who should command so much attention. So once you have those great players on the floor at the same time -- right now its CF by himself - that will magically make the good players look even better. IN THE MEANTIME we see those players being tasked with attacking roles, and getting better and better, but I think it all can go to a much higher plane when the stars get added to the mix.

[Smitty]

I think I have it right... Mavs Future Picks:

'26: FRP (Own), FRP (OKC) | SRP (PHX)
'27: FRP owed to CHA if not Top-2 | SRP (CHI)
'28: FRP (OKC right to Swap)
'29: FRP (LAL) | SRP (HOU)
'30: FRP (SAS right to Swap), FRP (GSW-Top 20 Protected) | SRP (PHI)
'31: FRP (Own)
'32: FRP (Own) | SRP (Own)
'33: FRP (Own) | SRP (Own)


*If the '30 GSW pick doesn't convey, it converts to their '30 SRP

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I agree with a lot of the Naji concerns in regard to his fit with Flagg, and maybe even some with Washington, but it's important to keep things in perspective. The NBA is no longer about building a team that will stay together and contend for a championship for 5-6 years straight. It's about having 2-3 core guys that you constantly move pieces around each transaction cycle. Even Nico was wrong when he said 3-year window is long term, it's more like 18 months. Most of the guys that are on the roster now will not be the same ones after next years TDL. I love to talk roster building as much as the next guy, but maybe even I need to dial it back some and just focus on what's best for Flagg right now, the next 12 months. Then you reassess and make some moves around the edges. Or... if Flagg shows that he's already a top-10 guy by then, you make a more all-in swing. The biggest takeaway for me post-AD trade is that the Mavs have a ton of options now. The next GM will get a blank canvas as soon as this summer. The top pick this year will hopefully be part of that '2-3 core' with Flagg.

Yep

Gafford and Naji are not your ideal starting 5 and starting 3 on a championship team.  That doesn't mean it's anything to worry about right now.

[Mavs2021]

I have zeroed in on one specific use of the TPE or/and Klay Thompson now.

Given the looming 2027/2028 extensions of Lively, Christie and Marshall, I feel like the Mavs will not have any interest to add long-term money beyond 12 months, maybe 24 months at most with the TPE.

Cleveland will surely look to get LeBron home, but that could also mean to shed some further salaries. Strus is candidate numero uno. Schroeder depending on how LeBron feels about him from the Lakers days. I think they were good, but no idea.

Anyway the Cavs will receive the Spurs 2026 pick, so we could either acquire it outright for taking on 12 months (+small partial guarantee for Schroeder) of either Strus or Schroeder on draft night to further help the Cavs cap structure. Or we could swap trade Thompson + Thunder pick for Strus + Spurs pick. Feels like LeBron would prefer a proven winner like Thompson over Strus. 

Getting Schroeder, when we need a back-up guard anyway and being paid a late 1st round pick to do so, could be very smart business. In the unlikely case that Christian Anderson is really there at #28/#30 you immediately have a perfect German buddy for him to learn from.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I think I have it right... Mavs Future Picks:

'26: FRP (Own), FRP (OKC) | SRP (PHX)
'27: FRP owed to CHA if not Top-2 | SRP (CHI)
'28: FRP (OKC right to Swap)
'29: FRP (LAL) | SRP (HOU)
'30: FRP (SAS right to Swap), FRP (GSW-Top 20 Protected) | SRP (PHI)
'31: FRP (Own)
'32: FRP (Own) | SRP (Own)
'33: FRP (Own) | SRP (Own)


*If the '30 GSW pick doesn't convey, it converts to their '30 SRP

If by chance we land a top 2 next year, does that convert into SRPs?

[omahen]

I have zeroed in on one specific use of the TPE or/and Klay Thompson now.

Given the looming 2027/2028 extensions of Lively, Christie and Marshall, I feel like the Mavs will not have any interest to add long-term money beyond 12 months, maybe 24 months at most with the TPE.

Cleveland will surely look to get LeBron home, but that could also mean to shed some further salaries. Strus is candidate numero uno. Schroeder depending on how LeBron feels about him from the Lakers days. I think they were good, but no idea.

Anyway the Cavs will receive the Spurs 2026 pick, so we could either acquire it outright for taking on 12 months (+small partial guarantee for Schroeder) of either Strus or Schroeder on draft night to further help the Cavs cap structure. Or we could swap trade Thompson + Thunder pick for Strus + Spurs pick. Feels like LeBron would prefer a proven winner like Thompson over Strus. 

Getting Schroeder, when we need a back-up guard anyway and being paid a late 1st round pick to do so, could be very smart business. In the unlikely case that Christian Anderson is really there at #28/#30 you immediately have a perfect German buddy for him to learn from.

Shedding salary on draft day does very little for Cleveland. They are currently projected to be some 4 mil under the 2nd apron and 9 mil over the first apron. As a first apron team they could SnT for LeBron, which is basically their only realistic way to get him if he wants to get paid more than vet min (or room MLE). They would need to shed some 25 mil of salary to be able to offer him full MLE, for example. 

So the potential opportunity for cashing in on salary dumping comes after the draft at the start of free agency. While LeBron loves the drama and attention, it is unlikely he will be able to drag his decision for a long time if he wants to be paid more than MLE (unless he goes to a team with cap space). Lakers will not be holding his cap hold for a long time. 

Lakers could use any kind of SnT, imho. In option 1 they receive a good player, in option 2 they use their cap space and receive a large TE and perhaps a minor compensation. Under option 2 a team like Cleveland would be looking for salary taker in July

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Shedding salary on draft day does very little for Cleveland. They are currently projected to be some 4 mil under the 2nd apron and 9 mil over the first apron. As a first apron team they could SnT for LeBron, which is basically their only realistic way to get him if he wants to get paid more than vet min (or room MLE). They would need to shed some 25 mil of salary to be able to offer him full MLE, for example. 

So the potential opportunity for cashing in on salary dumping comes after the draft at the start of free agency. While LeBron loves the drama and attention, it is unlikely he will be able to drag his decision for a long time if he wants to be paid more than MLE (unless he goes to a team with cap space). Lakers will not be holding his cap hold for a long time. 

Lakers could use any kind of SnT, imho. In option 1 they receive a good player, in option 2 they use their cap space and receive a large TE and perhaps a minor compensation. Under option 2 a team like Cleveland would be looking for salary taker in July

Lebron will confirm he is a POS and antithesis to Dirk if he hamstrings Cleveland into paying him the full MLE rather than going "Hey, I'm already a billionaire and will probably make another billion on branding in my lifetime. Maybe I let my supposed love for my hometown team shine through and let them keep assets to build a winner by me signing a minimum contract."

Dude is the single biggest narcissist west of Washington.

[Smitty]

If by chance we land a top 2 next year, does that convert into SRPs?

I’m not sure. When I looked, every website said this: “Dallas' 2027 1st round pick to Charlotte protected for selections 1-2; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Dallas will instead convey Miami's 2028 2nd round pick to Charlotte”, but the Mavs don’t own a ‘28 SRP at all and that pick in particular was traded to DET in the THJ for Grimes deal last year…

Edit: It would be Detroit’s problem. RealGM shows the language for that pick. DET only owns it if DAL conveys their FRP. So, to answer your question. If the Mavs land in the Top-2, they don’t give up anything else.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

https://x.com/grantafseth/status/2019903...47756?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

Dallas Mavericks Injury Report vs. San Antonio Spurs:

Probable:

Marvin Bagley III (Trade Pending)
AJ Johnson (Trade Pending)
Tyus Jones (Trade Pending)
Brandon Williams (Right Lower Leg Contusion)

Doubtful:

Moussa Cisse (G League Two-Way)
Miles Kelly (G League Two-Way)
Khris Middleton (Trade Pending)
Ryan Nembhard (G League Two-Way)

Out:

Kyrie Irving (Left Knee Surgery)
Dereck Lively II (Right Foot Surgery)

[Smitty]

https://x.com/grantafseth/status/2019903...47756?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

Dallas Mavericks Injury Report vs. San Antonio Spurs:

Probable:

Marvin Bagley III (Trade Pending)
AJ Johnson (Trade Pending)
Tyus Jones (Trade Pending)
Brandon Williams (Right Lower Leg Contusion)

Doubtful:

Moussa Cisse (G League Two-Way)
Miles Kelly (G League Two-Way)
Khris Middleton (Trade Pending)
Ryan Nembhard (G League Two-Way)

Out:

Kyrie Irving (Left Knee Surgery)
Dereck Lively II (Right Foot Surgery)

So the Two-Way guys will be inactive/get some G League run as long as Jones, Johnson, and Bagley are active. Makes sense.