MAVS NEWS:

[cow]

See...it goes back to what I brought up the other day. The elephant in the room we're all just talking right past is: some people think it's pointless to try to be good next year, despite the Mavs having no incentive to be bad. Others assume they can and will find a way to be "good" next year, in some sort of relative way. Some feel as hopeless as the first group, but still expect the Mavs to make decisions based on the attempt to be good, given said lack of incentive to be bad. 

What we need to know is the direction the Mavs will chose or have already chosen, and we're just throwing spaghetti at the wall until we have that context. Every single one of us is assuming something, at least a small thing, and that's coloring our individual outlooks. 

If you think this is about to be a "start over" situation, a '31 first is a great asset to get. If you subconsciously believe there's a world in which next season doesn't suck, exchanging a current good rotation player for that seems unthinkable. It's where the Mavs decision makers are (and we don't even know who they are yet, really) on this spectrum that matters.

I think the answer is more likely somewhere in the middle of those extremes.  Not controlling your picks for the foreseeable future isn't ideal, but there is some freedom to it.  I don't think we'll have a contender for a while, but Cooper has shown enough to know that we will not be a bottom feeder and that's without the services of Kyrie, AD, Lively and shorter term injuries to our other role players.  Factor in a new running mate from the draft class and a year two bump for our centerpiece and you could roll out a very decent squad depending on which pieces get moved by the TDL/this offseason.  The freedom part comes in not having to make any moves just to make moves.  That's all dependent on Dumont's willingness to pay the tax, but I'm not sure it's safe to assume the preference one way or the other, especially before a GM is hired.  The power of standing pat, gives you negotiating leverage and we can sell off pieces when it makes the most sense and provides the best returns.  That's my half glass full look at the situation anyway.

[mvossman]

See...it goes back to what I brought up the other day. The elephant in the room we're all just talking right past is: some people think it's pointless to try to be good next year, despite the Mavs having no incentive to be bad. Others assume they can and will find a way to be "good" next year, in some sort of relative way. Some feel as hopeless as the first group, but still expect the Mavs to make decisions based on making an attempt to be good, given said lack of incentive to be bad. 

What we need to know is the direction the Mavs will chose or have already chosen, and we're just throwing spaghetti at the wall until we have that context. Every single one of us is assuming something, at least a small thing, and that's coloring our individual outlooks. 

If you think this is about to be a "start over" situation, a '31 first is a great asset to get. If you subconsciously believe there's a world in which next season doesn't suck, exchanging a current good rotation player for that seems unthinkable. It's where the Mavs decision makers are (and we don't even know who they are yet, really) on this spectrum that matters.

I think there are a spectrum of views between being good next year vs full rebuild.  I think there a lot of folks who look at it more like a reset (quick rebuild) and some of the arguments against such a late pick are coming from that perspective.

[loki]

I agree with this.

The farther out the pick is, the more valuable it seems, in a way. I'd think more Mavs fans would get this concept, given that we're currently living through the worst case scenario that becomes possible when you trade your own far out picks. The teams holding those Mavs '27 and '29 picks are salivating over the possibilities right about now, and there's still a very real chance (though less than what I originally hoped) that Lakers pick the Mavs own might end up being the single best asset in the war chest at this point. Someone said it in this thread - teams' fortunes change so quickly now.

Luka opting out in 2028 to sign with the Mavs followed by the Lakers winning the 2029 lottery and sending that pick to Dallas is still in the cards.

[KillerLeft]

I think there are a spectrum of views between being good next year vs full rebuild.  I think there a lot of folks who look at it more like a reset (quick rebuild) and some of the arguments against such a late pick are coming from that perspective.

I agree, and said as much ("in some sort of relative way") in the post you quoted. I feel like you're missing the point, a little. 

We're all arguing about the value of these trades, but it occurs to me the arguments are really about the value of where the Mavs are, currently, and I don't think that's as quantifiable as anyone (myself included) might believe. 

Take the Naji Marshall trade conversation I quoted, just as an example: If those who think the team's outlook is hopeless for the next few years are correct, that's a GREAT return for Marshall, and it will probably never get that good again. If you believe the opposite, losing a rotation player for some distant, nebulous potential asset seems insane. Sure, there's a spectrum of outlooks in between, but in our heart of hearts, we're all leaning more to one side or the other. The argument isn't really about what Naji Marshall's trade value is, it's about his value within our subconscious paradigm of where the Mavs are right now in 2026. The same is true of AD, PJW, Gafford, Kyrie and especially Klay Thompson. 

It's not an earth-shattering thought and might seem obvious to some, but I find it interesting to think about. It's weird not knowing for sure what the Mavs think of themselves and I for one hope for some kind of sign soon that points us in a direction definitively, regardless of whether that direction is right or wrong. It's tough right now even to know what I'm hoping happens, if that makes sense.

[KillerLeft]

Luka opting out in 2028 to sign with the Mavs followed by the Lakers winning the 2029 lottery and sending that pick to Dallas is still in the cards.

Know what's really funny? Even with how badly (and predictably) this all blew up in Harrison's face...I still don't think getting out from under Luka was the worst move ever, and I don't think I'd want him back. 

Trading a 25-year old, 5x All NBA first teamer at the height of his value for a 33 year old AD, a decent young player and one pick was objectively stupid - a better deal had to have been out there. But, I kind of don't think Luka still being here would've made it any more likely the the Mavs would've won a championship during his career. It would've made this season a lot more fun to follow, that's for sure, but even though we can't/shouldn't give Harrison any credit, whatsoever, for lucking into the #1 pick this summer, I can't deny that I actually feel better about the prospect of building around Flagg (even with the lack of draft capital) than I was feeling about winning a championship with Luka these past few years.

[Winter]

I doubt Naji will be traded. If he is, a FR pick and some talent that will benefit salary situation would likely be required. Probably a better pick than what Utah could offer.

The reason there's really no hurry that I can see is that Naji's value is not likely to go down as long as he is under the current contract here. He's 28, and in his prime. His birthday was last week. I can't see that his value would be any lower this summer.

[mvossman]

I agree, and said as much ("in some sort of relative way") in the post you quoted. I feel like you're missing the point, a little. 

We're all arguing about the value of these trades, but it occurs to me the arguments are really about the value of where the Mavs are, currently, and I don't think that's a quantifiable as anyone (myself included) might believe. 

Take the Naji Marshall trade conversation I quoted, just as an example: If those who think the team's outlook is hopeless for the next few years are correct, that's a GREAT return for Marshall, and it will probably never get that good again. If you believe the opposite, losing a rotation player for some distant, nebulous potential asset seems insane. Sure, there's a spectrum of outlooks in between, but in our heart of hearts, we're all leaning more to one side or the other. The argument isn't really about what Naji Marshall's trade value is, it's about his value within our subconscious paradigm of where the Mavs are right now in 2026. The same is true of AD, PJW, Gafford, Kyrie and especially Klay Thompson. 

It's not an earth-shattering thought and might seem obvious to some, but I find it interesting to think about. It's weird not knowing for sure what the Mavs think of themselves and I for one hope for some kind of sign soon that points us in a direction definitively, regardless of whether that direction is right or wrong. It's tough right now even to know what I'm hoping happens, if that makes sense.

It makes sense, although its easier for me because I am firmly in the camp that believes we need a reset.

Reading the tealeaves I think there are strong hints on the direction Mavs want to take.  They seem open to moving on from AD if they get the right price, and the rumored desired return are things like young players, picks and cap relief.  That sounds like an organization looking to reset.  I realize that you can't believe everything you hear, and a lot of what we hear regarding AD is driven by his agent (apparently because of extension concerns which is another sign of reset) but it seems like this organization is focused on building around Flagg long term.

[KillerLeft]

I doubt Naji will be traded. If he is, a FR pick and some talent that will benefit salary situation would likely be required. Probably a better pick than what Utah could offer.

The reason there's really no hurry that I can see is that Naji's value is not likely to go down as long as he is under the current contract here. He's 28, and in his prime. His birthday was last week. I can't see that his value would be any lower this summer.

Maybe not over the summer...that's a decent point. 

But, while I agree the contract is a significant portion of the appeal, we have to acknowledge also that another significant portion of it is that fates have collided to place him in circumstances where he's playing with the ball much, much more than he should, and that's playing to his strengths in a way he's unlikely to find again in his career. If he's still here when actual winning ball-handlers are again available to take the ball from him, it's very likely he'll slide back into relative obscurity and his value will diminish, possibly significantly. He's having a very similar moment to the one Quentin Grimes enjoyed last year when he got to Philadelphia.

[Winter]

I guess I should have added that I fully expect them to trade him during the summer if not sooner for reasons you and others have mentioned. He can't really be part of next year's starting lineup.

[mvossman]

I doubt Naji will be traded. If he is, a FR pick and some talent that will benefit salary situation would likely be required. Probably a better pick than what Utah could offer.

The reason there's really no hurry that I can see is that Naji's value is not likely to go down as long as he is under the current contract here. He's 28, and in his prime. His birthday was last week. I can't see that his value would be any lower this summer.

The argument for him being more valuable now is that a team might see him as an important piece for this season, especially an East team with it being uniquely wide open.  Just from a pure value perspective you are getting another half year of him on that contract by trading for him now vs the offseason.  From a Mavs perspective trading him now probably means better draft positioning.  So it would be a win for both sides to make the deal sooner rather than later.  This doesn't mean I don't think the Mavs should drive a hard bargain.

[Winter]

The argument for him being more valuable now is that a team might see him as an important piece for this season, especially an East team with it being uniquely wide open.  Just from a pure value perspective you are getting another half year of him on that contract by trading for him now vs the offseason.  From a Mavs perspective trading him now probably means better draft positioning.  So it would be a win for both sides to make the deal sooner rather than later.  This doesn't mean I don't think the Mavs should drive a hard bargain.

Yeah, I don't disagree here. It just sounds like the Mavs are sending a message about his value that I suspect won't allow for many takers. I hope that's true.

[mvossman]

Yeah, I don't disagree here. It just sounds like the Mavs are sending a message about his value that I suspect won't allow for many takers. I hope that's true.

I hope it means they get max value for him.

[F Gump]

If your offense is having a hard time scoring, Naji is a bucket. Even though he's not a 3pt specialist, his TS% is about 64% which is elite for a non-center. That has real value.

[Nowitzki Way]

I hope it means they get max value for him.

I think it was pretty clear they sent a message. You want Naji it will take a 1st round pick. 

I see it likely they get it and trade him. As pointed out, a team in the East could easily see this year as being wide open. Marshall is that last piece to the puzzle type guy for a playoff rotation. Not a star, but will impact the floor at all times.

[loki]

Know what's really funny? Even with how badly (and predictably) this all blew up in Harrison's face...I still don't think getting out from under Luka was the worst move ever, and I don't think I'd want him back. 

Trading a 25-year old, 5x All NBA first teamer at the height of his value for a 33 year old AD, a decent young player and one pick was objectively stupid - a better deal had to have been out there. But, I kind of don't think Luka still being here would've made it any more likely the the Mavs would've won a championship during his career. It would've made this season a lot more fun to follow, that's for sure, but even though we can't/shouldn't give Harrison any credit, whatsoever, for lucking into the #1 pick this summer, I can't deny that I actually feel better about the prospect of building around Flagg (even with the lack of draft capital) than I was feeling about winning a championship with Luka these past few years.

I agree with a lot of that. It would be a great storyline if Luka came back, but who knows how much he'll even have left in the tank at that point. I'm pretty content to build around Flagg as well, assuming they're able to make some smart moves over the next year or so.

[Chicagojk]

Is it true or not:

Next year one of Marshall or PJ will not be here?

Do you pick one or do you trade the one who brings back the best package for you?

The draft pick this year or other moves may make the decision of who is the better fit as well. As will what a cooper jump looks like.

I think one of ad/Gafford will not be here by the start of next season. I think the same for marhall/pj. My concern is picking one now sort of sets a direction that I don’t feel ready to make yet. That is why it is so tricky.

[Smitty]

Is it true or not:

Next year one of Marshall or PJ will not be here?

Do you pick one or do you trade the one who brings back the best package for you?

The draft pick this year or other moves may make the decision of who is the better fit as well.  As will what a cooper jump looks like.

I think one of ad/Gafford will not be here by the start of next season.  I think the same for marhall/pj.  My concern is picking one now sort of sets a direction that I don’t feel ready to make yet.  That is why it is so tricky.

I think the “market” will help make those decisions. The Mavs are in a unique position where they can elect to push some decisions down the road, make aggressive moves to be better, or sell off some Vets for assets. This TDL offers valuable information gathering to help guide their decisions. Not only this week, but at the draft, in the summer, and at next years TDL.

[JamesConway912]

I agree with a lot of that. It would be a great storyline if Luka came back, but who knows how much he'll even have left in the tank at that point. I'm pretty content to build around Flagg as well, assuming they're able to make some smart moves over the next year or so.

I think it was insane. Even if you are super low on Luka longterm you are throwing an 18 year old into a roster that was built to contend now with next to no help after his first 1-2 seasons.

Just too many goal conflicts here. Kyrie, PJ, DLive, Gaff all went to the Finals, everybody had their roles and it made perfect sense. Now we have essentially thrown away the 2024-2025 and the 2025-2026 seasons. For what? Luka is still playing MVP top 3/4 candidate level of basketball and the Lakers are - despite their limited ressources - on track for winning 50+ games.

What do we have to show here?

Luka set the bar incredibly high. Both individually (all nba from his sophomore season on) and in terms of results (WCF run and finals run within his first six years). Flagg is awesome and all that, none of this is his fault, but I seriously dont get how anybody can argue the teams outlook has improved.

The Flagg era has barely even started, the results are horrible and the team has next to no avenues to improve. Who is gonna turn this ship around next season when we just decide to start a third run with this AD and Kyrie lead team? 

How will they replace Kyrie without draft picks or caproom? 

Even if Flagg improves to All NBA level of play like Luka did in year 2 he will have to get a roster to the playoffs that might offer even less help than Luka had in a year or two.

Its not only that they have burdened themselves with AD, Kyrie is also a massive question mark. He might very well be done as much as AD is and then youre looking at $100+M annually being wasted on the sidelines. Kyrie has missed A TON of games even before the ACL injury.

I think there is a great chance this team will miss the playoffs for the next 3-4 years in a row. It will probably require Flagg to do an unhealthy level of burden lifting on his own. I think all in all its just far too much to ask. And without the results and star power of an MVP candidate you will also struggle to attract the ring chasing vets you need to bolster out your rotation on the edges when the money gets tight.

[JamesConway912]

I think the “market” will help make those decisions. The Mavs are in a unique position where they can elect to push some decisions down the road, make aggressive moves to be better, or sell off some Vets for assets. This TDL offers valuable information gathering to help guide their decisions. Not only this week, but at the draft, in the summer, and at next years TDL.

How much more information do we need? The roster has barely changed over the summer. They had nothing but a small room exception left to acquire DLo. Right now they are projected to be even more limited financially next summer.

The 2024/2025 season ended in the lottery. This season will most likely end there as well.

I think there is no time left to waste. The team is what it is and they would be better off accepting this and start turning the page to the Flagg era.

[mvossman]

Is it true or not:

Next year one of Marshall or PJ will not be here?

Do you pick one or do you trade the one who brings back the best package for you?

The draft pick this year or other moves may make the decision of who is the better fit as well.  As will what a cooper jump looks like.

I think one of ad/Gafford will not be here by the start of next season.  I think the same for marhall/pj.  My concern is picking one now sort of sets a direction that I don’t feel ready to make yet.  That is why it is so tricky.

I agree that one of each of those pairs needs to go from a balanced roster standpoint, but they don't necessarily have to choose.  I think there are scenarios where trading away all 4 make sense.