Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[mvossman]

We’ve posted a lot of trade ideas the last several weeks but not many predictions. I think the Mavs will trade two players by the deadline. Gafford and DLO.

The obvious Gafford deals involve IND/Mathurin and ATL/Kennard+Pick. Other teams include BOS, LAL, TOR.

As for Russell… DLO+Cash to anyone that can take him for air. The maximum amount of cash they can send is $7.96M. It covers most of DLO’s contract and saves Dumont more in tax+salary than the ~$8M being sent out.

Making these two trades opens up a roster spot for Nembhard. The Mavs can then waive Exum to add Cisse to the 15-man, when he runs out of two-way eligibility.

My prediction is that Dlo is the only move they manage to make.

Then they bring back AD and Kyrie and manage to make the Play-in and possibly the playoffs.

Then they hire a GM in the offseason (one the board will be underwhelmed by) and ask him to cut 27 mil and find Flagg a Robin without assets or a lottery pick.

[mvossman]

I thought EVERY trade proposal was a prediction...

I think these are fairly plausible predictions. I don't think it will cost that much to ship Russell out. Maybe I'm delulu, but for a team in need of a 6th man, his deal doesn't suck at all. He might be the best shooter on this whole team. If he's IN A ROTATION, his deal is kind of a bargain, imho.

I think most proposals were more of how about this, this is something I would do.  My actual predictions are a lot more dark than my trade proposals.  I have been a fan of this team too long.

[Smitty]

I thought EVERY trade proposal was a prediction...

I think these are fairly plausible predictions. I don't think it will cost that much to ship Russell out. Maybe I'm delulu, but for a team in need of a 6th man, his deal doesn't suck at all. He might be the best shooter on this whole team. If he's IN A ROTATION, his deal is kind of a bargain, imho.

I don’t know about the best shooter thing. He’s been pretty bad back to back seasons now. His shooting splits are ugly…

39/31/83
40/29/71

[Smitty]

The Milwaukee Bucks have had a grudgingly realization that trading Giannis Antetokounmpo might finally be best for both sides, per @JakeLFischer

[Fischer] There is a scenario where the Portland Trail Blazers, who own Milwaukee first-round picks in ‘28, ‘29’ and ‘30, could attempt to butt in as the third team that helps Giannis Antetokounmpo make his way to the New York Knicks. Portland has “long admired” New York’s Mikal Bridges.

[FireNicoHarrison]

That's the first part of the domino...

[KillerLeft]

I don’t know about the best shooter thing. He’s been pretty bad back to back seasons now. His shooting splits are ugly…

39/31/83
40/29/71

All I know is that when I watch him, he's confident from anywhere on the court, and when he gets into rhythm I feel like they're going in. 

I understand that confidence in shooting isn't the end all, be all, but if people have been watching this team over the past couple of seasons like I have...I'm just saying, it's pretty important.

[KillerLeft]

The Milwaukee Bucks have had a grudgingly realization that trading Giannis Antetokounmpo might finally be best for both sides, per @JakeLFischer

[Fischer] There is a scenario where the Portland Trail Blazers, who own Milwaukee first-round picks in ‘28, ‘29’ and ‘30, could attempt to butt in as the third team that helps Giannis Antetokounmpo make his way to the New York Knicks. Portland has “long admired” New York’s Mikal Bridges.

Hmm...Milwaukee ends up with KAT and their picks back, so they'd be in position to capitalize on how bad they'd be with KAT? They could probably do worse.

[KillerLeft]

I think most proposals were more of how about this, this is something I would do.  My actual predictions are a lot more dark than my trade proposals.  I have been a fan of this team too long.

Yeah, to each their own. I have almost zero interest in figuring out how to make trades that will never happen legal. I get that it can be an interesting and fun exercise, and I've tried...I just can't muster up the life force to care. 

Trying to figure out what teams actually want/need and what trades actually make sense within the tactical/political framework of the real NBA? That's the fun part, for me.

Having said that, sometimes the crazy ones come true, I suppose.

[Smitty]

All I know is that when I watch him, he's confident from anywhere on the court, and when he gets into rhythm I feel like they're going in. 

I understand that confidence in shooting isn't the end all, be all, but if people have been watching this team over the past couple of seasons like I have...I'm just saying, it's pretty important.

He’s definitely a willing shooter. Much like THJ was on this team. I think that’s what you’re getting at? Best shooter is quite a statement when the team has Max and Klay.

If willing shooter is what you mean, I agree that volume is something this team lacks and needs more of. DLO isn’t the one I’d look to for that. He’s been pretty bad at the making them part.

[mvossman]

Yeah, to each their own. I have almost zero interest in figuring out how to make trades that will never happen legal. I get that it can be an interesting and fun exercise, and I've tried...I just can't muster up the life force to care. 

Trying to figure out what teams actually want/need and what trades actually make sense within the tactical/political framework of the real NBA? That's the fun part, for me.

Having said that, sometimes the crazy ones come true, I suppose.

I think maybe I overstated myself.  I don't mean I like to theory craft random trades, I just mean that when I talk about a trade that I think might make sense (like AD for filler + Risacher + CLE first) I don't consider it a prediction.  I think what Smitty did (predict who would get moved) and my more negative outlook are predictions.  Its maybe semantics, but I do think there is a fundamental difference.

[mvossman]

He’s definitely a willing shooter. Much like THJ was on this team. I think that’s what you’re getting at? Best shooter is quite a statement when the team has Max and Klay.

If willing shooter is what you mean, I agree that volume is something this team lacks and needs more of. DLO isn’t the one I’d look to for that. He’s been pretty bad at the making them part.

Yeah, willingness to shoot is underrated but you do actually have to make them at a reasonable clip.  I don't think Russell is this bad, but I'm not sure what he is any more.  Honestly if you wanted more volume shooting Hardy is shooting more per 36 than Dlo and making them at a decent clip.

The good news is that Max is becoming a more willing shooter.  Last year he jumped from 4.5 per 36 to nearly 5.5 and now its up to 7 this season.  That is getting close to Dlo territory with a crazy good percentage.  If he can keep this up he will be a very valuable player.

[F Gump]

We’ve posted a lot of trade ideas the last several weeks but not many predictions. I think the Mavs will trade two players by the deadline. Gafford and DLO.

The obvious Gafford deals involve IND/Mathurin and ATL/Kennard+Pick. Other teams include BOS, LAL, TOR.

As for Russell… DLO+Cash to anyone that can take him for air. The maximum amount of cash they can send is $7.96M. It covers most of DLO’s contract and saves Dumont more in tax+salary than the ~$8M being sent out.

Making these two trades opens up a roster spot for Nembhard. The Mavs can then waive Exum to add Cisse to the 15-man, when he runs out of two-way eligibility.

I would approach those trades as 1 trade. 

Gaff+DAR for Kennard + good pick
OR
Gaff+DAR for Mathurin  

Either is a legal trade.

[Smitty]

I would approach those trades as 1 trade. 

Gaff+DAR for Kennard + good pick
OR
Gaff+DAR for Mathurin  

Either is a legal trade.

I don’t think either of those teams is willing to go into the tax by taking on DLO, so I don’t see it as realistic.

I also didn’t mean to try and predict the actual trade itself, just that I think of all the names rumored and talked about, it will be Gafford and DLO that are the outgoing Mavs this TDL.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I would approach those trades as 1 trade. 

Gaff+DAR for Kennard + good pick
OR
Gaff+DAR for Mathurin  

Either is a legal trade.

I think the latter one puts Indy into the tax.  You can do Gaff + either Exum or Williams and Indy misses the tax (barely)…if you trust the Fanspo numbers (which I don’t).

[Chicagojk]

The Milwaukee Bucks have had a grudgingly realization that trading Giannis Antetokounmpo might finally be best for both sides, per @JakeLFischer

[Fischer] There is a scenario where the Portland Trail Blazers, who own Milwaukee first-round picks in ‘28, ‘29’ and ‘30, could attempt to butt in as the third team that helps Giannis Antetokounmpo make his way to the New York Knicks. Portland has “long admired” New York’s Mikal Bridges.

Very creative.  I don’t think they get all the picks back.  One must be a pick swap.  Two sounds iffy but could be a good bet for Mil.  Towns does nothing for them but getting their picks back (some of them) would be interesting.

[omahen]

Milwaukee picks Portland owns are nice, but distant. Milwaukee still needs something to hope for next two seasons before the 2028 pick. Either other picks or young players. New York has none, really. I think they can only trade top8 protected Washington pick for this year, which will almost certainly not convert, as Washington is currently winning the tankathon.

NY would realistically have to send KAT to Milwaukee to make salaries work. Simplest alternatives would be Mitch and Hart or Anunoby. I don't think they would consider trading Brunson. Simplest thing for Portland would be to send Thybulle and Williams to NY, both would kind of make sense to replace Bridges and KAT, of course in much reduced roles. Not sure if Portland would add much more draft capital for Bridges than Milwaukee picks. So Milwaukee would trade Giannis for KAT and 2 -3 FRPs. Sounds like extremely meh offer. I think KAT is a negative value contract. Even if Portland adds Scoot to the deal, I would still be far from enthusiastic, if I am Milwaukee. NY would have a much better chance to build a decent package for Giannis in the summer

[loki]

I wouldn't want to reduce the return in a Gafford or Marshall deal by trying to dump a contract as well. Leave guys like DLo and Hardy until the offseason. If they absolutely have to be moved, it will probably be easier then.

My predictions right now are Gaff to Atlanta for Kennard+1st and Naji to Detroit (TPE) for 3-4 2nds. I'd love a Klay deal as well, but I can't really see a team that is a good fit who can afford to pay him. He's not worth his $17.5M contract next season.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Naji worths at least a FRP and a SRP.

[omahen]

I'd love a Klay deal as well, but I can't really see a team that is a good fit who can afford to pay him. He's not worth his $17.5M contract next season.

Detroit definitely needs shooting. Klay for LeVert. They both have similar two year deals. LeVert could probably be sent to a third team for expiring salary.

[mvossman]

I wouldn't want to reduce the return in a Gafford or Marshall deal by trying to dump a contract as well. Leave guys like DLo and Hardy until the offseason. If they absolutely have to be moved, it will probably be easier then.

My predictions right now are Gaff to Atlanta for Kennard+1st and Naji to Detroit (TPE) for 3-4 2nds. I'd love a Klay deal as well, but I can't really see a team that is a good fit who can afford to pay him. He's not worth his $17.5M contract next season.

Like the Gaff trade, but I think Naji is worth at least a late first.