Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[cow]

That´s true. Being a disruptive dickhead takes effort. AD just takes mental vacations. Once again nobody runs less on the court than AD. Harden is a similar level. Luka runs 0.8 miles per game (2.6 vs. 1.8) more than AD this season and people call Luka lazy for not moving his feet on defense.

I don't think AD was ever a dog and the championship probably made him complacent.  Neither of that is likely to rub off on Cooper who seems to be a workaholic.  I'd love to see that miles per game stat broken down by each end of the floor though.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Here's the problem with getting "good picks" from ATL - other than the NO pick, there aren't going to be any. The Mavs know this. 

Once ATL gets AD, their 1sts are all very likely to be in the 20s, given that this will push ATL to the upper tier in the East, which means the Mavs get (*looking at Mavs history since the title*) more stuff like Omax Prosper, Josh Green, Wendell Moore (pick traded to HOU, as Mavs moved back and then up and got J Hardy), Justin Anderson, Shane Larkin, Justin Hamilton, and so on. That's not useful at all. Ugh. And that sort of crap is what you get for AD? No thanks, I would just keep him.

https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/Hawks/1/draft-picks

ATL has a bunch of swaps in 2026, 2027, and 2028.  Not until 2029 is their 1st rd pick for sure theirs.   

If you really think AD is going to make some team an elite echelon team for the next three seasons, then I guess the Mavs should keep him.

[F Gump]

Replying to more posts in this one.

I didn't realize other teams also have the NO pick 

Obviously they don't -- but that pick is the ONLY reason to deal with ATL on a trade of AD, because ATL wants to make all their desirable players off limits. So if you take the NO pick off the table, they don't have a single thing to offer that moves the needle. That's the point on the Mavs insisting on the NO pick in talks with ATL.

The ATL 2026 pick/CLE pick (variously named) isn't all that great, right now at 18, and will likely be getting worse and worse as the season goes along. ATL doesn't have their own pick to offer, to be clear. 

As for why the focus is on ATL, it's because that's the suitor we know, so that's who we talk about. The Mavs don't have to trade with ATL or anyone, frankly.

[mvossman]

I guess I'm fine doing nothing and exploring the possibility of AD being here for the long term.  While he's oft injured and not Batman, he also seems to be good teammate and mostly productive when he is on the floor.  Something could materialize down the road for him.  As Gump pointed out, Atlanta's picks aren't going to have a ton of value, especially if we don't drastically improve our drafting prowess.  I'd rather spin my wheels with AD playing 60% of my games than spin those same wheels with the next Josh Green playing in 90% of those games.

The 26 pick is likely going to be Cleveland (17) and the 27 pick is going to be worse of NOP and Bucks (could easily be lottery).  Those two picks are each likely more valuable than any pick the Mavs currently have.  If you want any chance of building around Flagg, you are going to have to hit on some picks, starting with the Mavs pick this summer.

This team has not been great with the draft, mostly because Cuban never valued it.  Green could have been Maxey or Bane if Cuban hadn't given up drafting authority to a gambler.  And even this dysfunctional organization managed to hit on Brunson at 31.  

Its not just the picks either.  I think some folks are undervaluing the huge cap relief.  Teams can generate value with space, even if its just exception space (see Naji from last summer), and can be really handcuffed without that space.

[cow]

The 26 pick is likely going to be Cleveland (17) and the 27 pick is going to be worse of NOP and Bucks (could easily be lottery).  Those two picks are each likely more valuable than any pick the Mavs currently have.  If you want any chance of building around Flagg, you are going to have to hit on some picks, starting with the Mavs pick this summer.

This team has not been great with the draft, mostly because Cuban never valued it.  Green could have been Maxey or Bane if Cuban hadn't given up drafting authority to a gambler.  And even this dysfunctional organization managed to hit on Brunson at 31.  

Its not just the picks either.  I think some folks are undervaluing the huge cap relief.  Teams can generate value with space, even if its just exception space (see Naji from last summer), and can be really handcuffed without that space.

The Luka/Bruson draft has to be an all-timer and maybe the best ever if we grade on a curve for the front office who drafted them.  I need a drink now.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

One thing that I'm surprised never comes up in these chats is the idea of a swap on the NOP pick this year paired with a future unprotected/lightly protected pick. Atlanta still gets a high pick this year which could still be as high as the second pick and the Mavs now have really great odds of jumping up into the top 4. Feels like a decent compromise but it never seems to come up as an option anywhere (unless I missed something, haven't caught up on this thread in a while).

KP/Kennard/Risacher/NOP swap/2027 or future pick seems like it would be a fantastic haul to me without getting the NOP pick outright.

[mvossman]

Obviously they don't -- but that pick is the ONLY reason to deal with ATL on a trade of AD, because ATL wants to make all their desirable players off limits. So if you take the NO pick off the table, they don't have a single thing to offer that moves the needle. That's the point on the Mavs insisting on the NO pick in talks with ATL.

The ATL 2026 pick/CLE pick (variously named) isn't all that great, right now at 18, and will likely be getting worse and worse as the season goes along. ATL doesn't have their own pick to offer, to be clear. 

As for why the focus is on ATL, it's because that's the suitor we know, so that's who we talk about. The Mavs don't have to trade with ATL or anyone, frankly.

I'm curious, if we don't move AD unless we get premium picks and don't end up moving him at all, what is your plan for rebuilding this team?  Every first the Mavs currently have will likely fall into your category of useless.  When they actually start owning their own picks Flagg will be in his prime and those will probably be "useless" as well.

[Smitty]

One thing that I'm surprised never comes up in these chats is the idea of a swap on the NOP pick this year paired with a future unprotected/lightly protected pick.  Atlanta still gets a high pick this year which could still be as high as the second pick and the Mavs now have really great odds of jumping up into the top 4.  Feels like a decent compromise but it never seems to come up as an option anywhere (unless I missed something, haven't caught up on this thread in a while).

KP/Kennard/Risacher/NOP swap/2027 or future pick seems like it would be a fantastic haul to me without getting the NOP pick outright.

The LockedOn guys talked about this today, or maybe yesterday. Kinda. They never really caught on to the idea that you could do a swap, instead they were suggesting an outright trade of the Mavs pick for the Pelicans pick. But a swap allows for 2 chances at moving up in the lottery. If your own pick moves up, it doesn’t matter. Could definitely be an option.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

The LockedOn guys talked about this today, or maybe yesterday. Kinda. They never really caught on to the idea that you could do a swap, instead they were suggesting an outright trade of the Mavs pick for the Pelicans pick. But a swap allows for 2 chances at moving up in the lottery. If your own pick moves up, it doesn’t matter. Could definitely be an option.

Ya outright trading picks now could blow up in your face in hysterical fashion.

[F Gump]

1 The Atlanta firsts are a bunch of crazy swaps that I don't think will be that impacted by Atlanta's record.

2 So if you are keeping AD are you paying his extension?

1 The swaps look enticing at first glance until you think through them. They are about pick 20 or maybe a tad better.

This season - it's the better of CLE or MINN, who should both be about top 5 in their conference.
Next season 2027  - it's the WORSE pick between NO and MIL, and MIL should be a playoff team (which puts the pick around 18-20, depending on how they tweak their roster around Giannis)
Following season 2028 - it's the MIDDLE value between ATL, CLE, UT and once ATL is good, that's likely around 18-20

2 Yes I would be willing to keep AD. He makes C Flagg better imo, and that matters. No I would not extend him in the summer. He still has TWO seasons left after this one, already on the books, so that's a question for way down the road (even though R Paul will be pushing for a max extension at the soonest possible moment, of course). There's a lot of games between now and summer 2028 to assess how to navigate what comes next. And (even though you didn't ask) no, I don't think he automatically gets a max extension from anyone when the time comes, including DAL.

[Winter]

I'm curious, if we don't move AD unless we get premium picks and don't end up moving him at all, what is your plan for rebuilding this team?  Every first the Mavs currently have will likely fall into your category of useless.  When they actually start owning their own picks Flagg will be in his prime and those will probably be "useless" as well.

Agree. Someone needs to paint me a picture. I don't fully understand "keeping AD." What happens in the summer? I haven't heard anyone wanting to extend him so what will we ask in return in a summer trade? Atlanta probably isn't our trade partner any more. Are we just imagining a better return from someone else? Who? What if AD gets injured this spring? He'll be older (bday March 11) with more miles on him. That's not helpful. It's all too vague for me, and I can't just "assume" a better return simply because I waited until summer.

[F Gump]

I'm curious, if we don't move AD unless we get premium picks and don't end up moving him at all, what is your plan for rebuilding this team?  Every first the Mavs currently have will likely fall into your category of useless.  When they actually start owning their own picks Flagg will be in his prime and those will probably be "useless" as well.

That's a good question, but my answer is different than you might expect.

My plan to rebuild around CF would focus on using the existing talent on the roster - OR THE EQUIVALENT THEREOF IN TRADE -  to put alongside CF. 

So a starting point is AD. He plays next to CF and they are better. Or --- he is swapped for a player (or pick) who will eventually be the same sort of talent. The NO pick has that potential, and none of the rest being discussed with ATL does. So if I don't get that return from ATL or elsewhere, I keep him. 

The assumption that this means he gets extended by DAL is weird. He has TWO more seasons after this one. Yes he wants an extension, but no, I'm not doing it this summer even though R Paul acts like it should be automatic. It's not. Maybe we get there in summer 2027. Maybe in May 2028. Maybe he gets traded before then. Maybe not. I am quite willing to let it play out and have him line up next to CF.

The Mavs issue really isn't a lack of talent. It's an ill-fitting set of otherwise talented pieces. Talent-for-talent (rather than throwing the existing talent in the trash, and then trying to find that level of talent in the draft) is where I would go. And I would start with an expert GM doing the roster building.

[Winter]

That's a good question, but my answer is different than you might expect.

My plan to rebuild around CF would focus on using the existing talent on the roster - OR THE EQUIVALENT THEREOF IN TRADE -  to put alongside CF. 

So a starting point is AD. He plays next to CF and they are better. Or --- he is swapped for a player (or pick) who will eventually be the same sort of talent. The NO pick has that potential, and none of the rest being discussed with ATL does. So if I don't get that return from ATL or elsewhere, I keep him. 

The assumption that this means he gets extended by DAL is weird. He has TWO more seasons after this one. Yes he wants an extension, but no, I'm not doing it this summer even though R Paul acts like it should be automatic. It's not. Maybe we get there in summer 2027. Maybe in May 2028. Maybe he gets traded before then. Maybe not. I am quite willing to let it play out and have him line up next to CF.

The Mavs issue really isn't a lack of talent. It's an ill-fitting set of otherwise talented pieces. Talent-for-talent (rather than throwing the existing talent in the trash, and then trying to find that level of talent in the draft) is where I would go. And I would start with an expert GM doing the roster building.

That doesn't make much sense to me, because AD's return on the investment is constantly diminishing. I can sort of understand trading our available talent like Naji, PJ, Kyrie and a few other pieces to create a team around AD and Flagg, but it's such a stretch given AD's health and age. That's truly two crazy different timelines.

I just can't imagine our new GM is on board with that idea. It's the last thing I would expect. You're literally banking on a healthy AD for the next year or two.... to get us to the playoffs with a bunch of players who have not really played together? That's 2-3 years wasted in my thinking.

But I'm just a fan. I don't know much.

[mvossman]

That's a good question, but my answer is different than you might expect.

My plan to rebuild around CF would focus on using the existing talent on the roster - OR THE EQUIVALENT THEREOF IN TRADE -  to put alongside CF. 

So a starting point is AD. He plays next to CF and they are better. Or --- he is swapped for a player (or pick) who will eventually be the same sort of talent. The NO pick has that potential, and none of the rest being discussed with ATL does. So if I don't get that return from ATL or elsewhere, I keep him. 

The assumption that this means he gets extended by DAL is weird. He has TWO more seasons after this one. Yes he wants an extension, but no, I'm not doing it this summer even though R Paul acts like it should be automatic. It's not. Maybe we get there in summer 2027. Maybe in May 2028. Maybe he gets traded before then. Maybe not. I am quite willing to let it play out and have him line up next to CF.

The Mavs issue really isn't a lack of talent. It's an ill-fitting set of otherwise talented pieces. Talent-for-talent (rather than throwing the existing talent in the trash, and then trying to find that level of talent in the draft) is where I would go. And I would start with an expert GM doing the roster building.

A player or pick that has a good chance to be AD level talent is wildly more valuable than AD.  Not just because he is injury prone with a massive contract, but because he is almost 33.  Why would somebody give away potentially 10+ years of (cheaper and healthier) AD talent for the last couple of injury riddled years of AD?

The Mavs don't have to give AD an extension, but what is the plan then?  He will be disgruntled (as his agent will be) and a year older.  Do you think you are going to get more of a return then?  

I think the team is lacking in talent.  If Kyrie, AD and Flagg were all in their prime then this would be a contender, but that is not the case.  You can't just take existing talent and turn it into the same talent 10 years younger.  Not without getting really lucky.  The best way to get really lucky is to get as many opportunities as possible, which means accumulate as much quality/quantity picks as you can.

[DallasMaverick]

I’d also argue that any players the Mavs might draft in the next couple of years will almost certainly be two or three years BEHIND Flagg developmentally, and maybe more.

From a timeline perspective, better to find some productive 23-27-year-olds.

[mvossman]

I’d also argue that any players the Mavs might draft in the next couple of years will almost certainly be two or three years BEHIND Flagg developmentally, and maybe more.

From a timeline perspective, better to find some productive 23-27-year-olds.

27 is pushing it, but I agree that getting young players fit the timeline more than draft picks, especially late picks.  On the other hand, you can use those picks to trade for said players as well.

[F Gump]

That doesn't make much sense to me, because AD's return on the investment is constantly diminishing. I can sort of understand trading our available talent like Naji, PJ, Kyrie and a few other pieces to create a team around AD and Flagg, but it's such a stretch given AD's health and age. That's truly two crazy different timelines.

I just can't imagine our new GM is on board with that idea. It's the last thing I would expect. You're literally banking on a healthy AD for the next year or two.... to get us to the playoffs with a bunch of players who have not really played together? That's 2-3 years wasted in my thinking.

But I'm just a fan. I don't know much.

"to create a team around AD and Flagg" -- I'm not sure what makes you think I was suggesting everyone gets traded, other than AD, where they start over. I'm close to the polar opposite of that, in fact. 

Here's my pov. REALLY GOOD TALENT is hard to acquire, and getting a roster that has a lot of it is a long hard exercise. The Mavs imo have already done the hard part. They have a LOT of really good talent. They just don't have the right mix in that talent.  

So swap talent for talent, not for air. Yes, pick up extra picks when you can. (Presti, please.)

Yes, do what you can to get rid of bad contracts that Nico saddled them with (Hardy, Martin, DAR) - while keeping in mind to not pay a high price to fix that, because even bad deals will expire eventually if you can't find a quicker solution. But the goal is to always end with more talent, not less. 
.... In that vein, I don't sell my best talent (AD) to fix the problem of too much payroll from having bad contracts on the roster. If they didn't have Hardy, Martin, DAR clogging their cap, they wouldn't even be a taxpayer! Keep the good talent itself (or swap it for similar talent), and look for ways to get rid of the bad clogs (perhaps as you do so). Nico was really EXTREMELY bad at cap planning and management, as well as lots of other skills, but it doesn't have to be that way.

Let me add that I am not a "timelines" guy. It's about who is talented and fits to make the team better. Work to win, and keep winning, and adjust your roster as you go, a piece or two at a time, talent-for-talent when needed, rather than try to be all youngsters or all veterans. You won't have the same roster in 4-5 years anyhow, no matter what you do.

That's what I would do. An expert GM is the guy to do it.

[omahen]

Some rumors Zion might get traded too for a similar package as Trae Young (mostly expiring salary, no picks) and looks like Chicago is showing some interest. Any other team where Zion could make sense? Would Washington take another shot at at least becoming a more watchable team? They could package Middleton and one of the younger guys. Brooklyn perhaps (they don't have expiring salary)?

[cow]

Me and Gump on the same page again. I'm pretty sure 2026 is the year the world ends.

[Winter]

"to create a team around AD and Flagg" -- I'm not sure what makes you think I was suggesting everyone gets traded, other than AD, where they start over. I'm close to the polar opposite of that, in fact. 

Here's my pov. REALLY GOOD TALENT is hard to acquire, and getting a roster that has a lot of it is a long hard exercise. The Mavs imo have already done the hard part. They have a LOT of really good talent. They just don't have the right mix in that talent.  

So swap talent for talent, not for air. Yes, pick up extra picks when you can. (Presti, please.)

Yes, do what you can to get rid of bad contracts that Nico saddled them with (Hardy, Martin, DAR) - while keeping in mind to not pay a high price to fix that, because even bad deals will expire eventually if you can't find a quicker solution. But the goal is to always end with more talent, not less. 
.... In that vein, I don't sell my best talent (AD) to fix the problem of too much payroll from having bad contracts on the roster. If they didn't have Hardy, Martin, DAR clogging their cap, they wouldn't even be a taxpayer! Keep the good talent itself (or swap it for similar talent), and look for ways to get rid of the bad clogs (perhaps as you do so). Nico was really EXTREMELY bad at cap planning and management, as well as lots of other skills, but it doesn't have to be that way.

Let me add that I am not a "timelines" guy. It's about who is talented and fits to make the team better. Work to win, and keep winning, and adjust your roster as you go, a piece or two at a time, talent-for-talent when needed, rather than try to be all youngsters or all veterans. You won't have the same roster in 4-5 years anyhow, no matter what you do.

That's what I would do. An expert GM is the guy to do it.