Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[khaled1987]

The Suns just got Jalen Green (a negative contract), Dillon Brooks, #10 pick in 2025, #31 pick in 2025, and some 2nd rd picks for Kevin Durant.

Ask yourself if Anthony Davis has more value than Kevin Durant or if more teams are interested in AD than KD.

Absolutely.

[FireNicoHarrison]

The Suns just got Jalen Green (a negative contract), Dillon Brooks, #10 pick in 2025, #31 pick in 2025, and some 2nd rd picks for Kevin Durant.

Ask yourself if Anthony Davis has more value than Kevin Durant or if more teams are interested in AD than KD.

Yes to the first question (but he is still a meme) and big no to the second... KD is a plug and play player, you can add him at every roster and he is work very well.

Street clothes is a diva who wants to play at the 4... If you pay him a lot you want to have insurance for his availability. And he can't give you it.
He played almost 50% of Mavs games. It's not a secondary factor.

[Winter]

Risacher scored 4 more points than AD did tonight of Atlanta’s 125 total points.

No one on the Hawks seemed too interested in passing him the ball. Had his shot blocked once when I watched followed closely by a miss under the basket.  He moved well, but he didn't look like much.

[Dirknows]

[quote="Winter" pid="261880" dateline="1766921394"]

No one on the Hawks seemed too interested in passing him the ball. Had his shot blocked once when I watched followed closely by a miss under the basket.  He moved well, but he didn't look like much.
[/quote

He's not much. He looked promising last year but this year he looks like trash. If he was even the 5th pick none of us would have any interest in him. His biggest asset is being drafted number 1.

[khaled1987]

No one on the Hawks seemed too interested in passing him the ball. Had his shot blocked once when I watched followed closely by a miss under the basket.  He moved well, but he didn't look like much.
[/quote

He's not much. He looked promising last year but this year he looks like trash. If he was even the 5th pick none of us would have any interest in him. His biggest asset is being drafted number 1.

I feel that his ceiling is a DFS tbh. At that salary and him not being close to be there yet, he isn't exactly an enticing piece

[Dirknows]

Really is unfortunate AD went down when he did, Hawks have dropped 6 straight and may be looking to make a move sooner than later.

[GermanMav]

I'd say perfect timing. He should be back in a couple of days, and this prevents him from beeing seriously injured.

[JamesConway912]

I feel that his ceiling is a DFS tbh. At that salary and him not being close to be there yet, he isn't exactly an enticing piece

I would aim slightly higher. He is a much better ballhandler than DFS. I see Chandler Parsons type of upside but more a SF/SG than a SF/PF like CP despite the length. That is still a potential building block. I have no idea where AD lands trade value-wise but I would be happy with getting Risacher as part of the deal. He may not be a franchise player but could be a rotation piece. Just forget about the #1 pick tag.

Of course if there is a way to get some type of form of the New Orleans pick you aim for that but I struggle to see that. Maybe swap rights for our pick with some light protections (top 3) could be doable. Or you get the Pels pick unprotected but add something like the Lakers pick. But ultimately I think AD‘s days of having value like that are behind us.

I would be fine with KP + Risacher + CLE 1st (#15 right now) and a future 1st as a baseline. Don’t think AD has significantly more value than that due to the constant injury problems and gigantic salary attached.

Of course if you can get more than that Id happily take it but that is where I stand for now.

I just hope they trade him quickly. He is still a good player and when he is back you can expect .500 ball again which would be bad for our draft pick which is THE biggest asset the Mavs possess right now after Flagg. Protecting that also holds value.

If there is no way to even land the KP + Risacher + CLE 
1st + future 1st package then I would be fine with keeping him as long as they just sit his butt. There is always a way to do that other teams prove it constantly. Kidd is probably the wrong coach for that though as he just cant keep his mouth shut.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I had to guess it will get done as AD for Porzingis + Risacher + Hawks 2026 1st round pick. Maybe they move some pieces around the edges, but that will be the core deal.

Because Atlanta is so far away from the first apron, it is pretty easy to mix and match.  One challenge with Atlanta is they only have 14 players.  So, you can't do an unbalanced trade and take them right up to the apron without leaving them a way to get back to 14 players.  Another advantage of dealing with Atlanta is they have exceptions to work with.  

I agree the KP/Risacher combo for AD combo is the base.  It works with $1.0mm to spare and leaves them $4.7mm under the apron.  Personally, I'd like to send out more salary and get back either Newell or Gueye.  One path is D'Lo for one of those guys.  Doing it for Gueye would force them to convert a 2-way to fill in the required roster slots.  Doing it with Newell creates space for a minimum slot with $77k to spare.  You can also bring expiring Kennard into the picture and do other things (like move on from Martin).  But, the more money Atlanta takes back, the less pick equity you are likely to get.

Atlanta's pick situation is a mess.  I just don't see adding a second rookie in 2026 to a team that already has Flagg, Risacher, the Dallas 2026 and (hopefully Newell or Gueye).  Personally, I'm more interested in Atlanta's 2027 (least favorable of NOP and MIL top 4 protected) depending on what you negotiate if the pick doesn't convey.  I think that has more upside than the middle of the pack pick in 2026 (and no, they aren't trading the good 2026 pick...sorry to those who think they will).  I'd also want a 2028 swap (which basically swaps our OKC pick with the 2nd most favorable of Clev/ATL/Utah).

One interesting element of this that no one talks about is KP.  You probably shut him down to improve your pick.  But, can you get something for a $30mm expiring?  Or, do you bring him back next year on a shorter term deal (team friendly terms, player friendly money).  Or, is he a S&T candidate if he can show he's healthy.  I don't think he's a total throw-away.

[Chicagojk]

Atlanta's pick situation is a mess.  I just don't see adding a second rookie in 2026 to a team that already has Flagg, Risacher, the Dallas 2026 and (hopefully Newell or Gueye).  Personally, I'm more interested in Atlanta's 2027 (least favorable of NOP and MIL top 4 protected) depending on what you negotiate if the pick doesn't convey.  I think that has more upside than the middle of the pack pick in 2026 (and no, they aren't trading the good 2026 pick...sorry to those who think they will).  I'd also want a 2028 swap (which basically swaps our OKC pick with the 2nd most favorable of Clev/ATL/Utah).

the only pushback I would have and this is pretty ridiculous looking a year out and strength of a draft in the teens, but at the moment 2027 draft looks really week.  Especially at the top of the draft.  I would jump at a pick in this years teens.   The 2026 drops off a bit in the teens but I still think some of the guys picked there this year may be top 10 picks the next year.

my question on Risacher is can he guard guards?  And can he be good at it?   if he is better guarding bigger players, I think my interest in him declines.

[Dirknows]

the only pushback I would have and this is pretty ridiculous looking a year out and strength of a draft in the teens, but at the moment 2027 draft looks really week.  Especially at the top of the draft.  I would jump at a pick in this years teens.   The 2026 drops off a bit in the teens but I still think some of the guys picked there this year may be top 10 picks the next year.

my question on Risacher is can he guard guards?  And can he be good at it?   if he is better guarding bigger players, I think my interest in him declines.

In his scenario you’d be adding Newell and Risacher to the mix, that’s a lot of young guys for a team that needs to compete next season, and the Cleveland pick player likely would be a developmental guy like Newell already is so. Plus we should still try and aim to have a pick in every draft, adding the 2027 makes that possible.

[loki]

I took a quick listen to the Locked On Hawks podcast about a potential AD trade. He was relatively okay with including Risacher in the deal, but pointed out that the Hawks have never paid the luxury tax. Looking at their cap sheet, if they trade for AD and Trae opts in they would already be well into the tax next year. They may need to find a taker for Trae before committing to any long term salary.

[KillerLeft]

I took a quick listen to the Locked On Hawks podcast about a potential AD trade. He was relatively okay with including Risacher in the deal, but pointed out that the Hawks have never paid the luxury tax. Looking at their cap sheet, if they trade for AD and Trae opts in they would already be well into the tax next year. They may need to find a taker for Trae before committing to any long term salary.

I suspect this would be a done deal already if the Mavs were willing to take on Trae Young. From this angle, it kind of seems like the Haynes thing was posturing from the Mavs. "We're not taking Young, so go ahead and figure that out somewhere else. We'll wait." Just speculation, obviously, but it seems to fit the info we have, imo.

[Mavs2021]

In his scenario you’d be adding Newell and Risacher to the mix, that’s a lot of young guys for a team that needs to compete next season, and the Cleveland pick player likely would be a developmental guy like Newell already is so. Plus we should still try and aim to have a pick in every draft, adding the 2027 makes that possible.

We need the roster spots and cap flexibility, so we can re-sign Exum and Dwight Powell to help us win next year, cause we have no capspace to make any major moves. Or you talking about using an exception to get another winning player like DAR.

We need to draft the BPAs and do it as close to Flagg´s timeline as possible. A pick in the #15-20 range in this draft will likely be better than a pick in the #6-#15 range in the next draft. Furthermore there is a high probability we can get the Cavs pick unprotected, cause nobody ultimately expects the Cavs to miss the play-offs and if they do the odds for top 4 will be under < 5%. Nevertheless they are currently the #8 seed and only two games ahead of the 10th seed, that we are trying to significantly strengthen.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I took a quick listen to the Locked On Hawks podcast about a potential AD trade. He was relatively okay with including Risacher in the deal, but pointed out that the Hawks have never paid the luxury tax. Looking at their cap sheet, if they trade for AD and Trae opts in they would already be well into the tax next year. They may need to find a taker for Trae before committing to any long term salary.

Yeah, it is really tough to do a KP based deal AND keep them under the tax with a legal roster.  It is easy to make the math work but if the deal ends up being an unbalanced trade and you have to account for ATL getting back to 14 players.  You can do it with AD, DP and Exum for KP, Risacher and Kennard, but you haven't accounted for Nembhard and you didn't accomplish my goal of getting either Newell or Gueye.  Personally, I'd tell Atlanta to put on their big-boy wallet and pretend to be a real NBA franchise.

[DanSchwartzgan]

We need the roster spots and cap flexibility, so we can re-sign Exum and Dwight Powell to help us win next year, cause we have no capspace to make any major moves. Or you talking about using an exception to get another winning player like DAR.

We need to draft the BPAs and do it as close to Flagg´s timeline as possible. A pick in the #15-20 range in this draft will likely be better than a pick in the #6-#15 range in the next draft. Furthermore there is a high probability we can get the Cavs pick unprotected, cause nobody ultimately expects the Cavs to miss the play-offs and if they do the odds for top 4 will be under < 5%. Nevertheless they are currently the #8 seed and only two games ahead of the 10th seed, that we are trying to significantly strengthen.

What happens to that Cleveland pick if Utah ends up outside the top 8?

[Mavs2021]

What happens to that Cleveland pick if Utah ends up outside the top 8?

If I got it right, 

one condition is that 

- the Hawks get the less favourable of Hawks and Spurs pick, so that always means the Spurs pick. --> Spurs

the other complex condition is that

- they get they get the less favourable between (a) the Cavs and (b) the more favourable of Utah/Minnesota, and if I Utah is not convertable, which everybody expects it to be, it automatically defaults to the Cavs pick. --> Cavs

The final condition is that they get the better between the results of the two conditions: the Cavs and Spurs, which likely will be the Cavs.

That´s how you land at the Cavs.

If Utah does convert, because it lands outside the top 8, then it would still require both Utah and Minnesota to finish above the Cavs, to convert to one of them, instead of Cleveland.

[omahen]

I don't understand why a lot of people here think that Atlanta would do an all-in move for AD and rather include their only true PG in the deal instead of KP. I don't see that happening. I think Atlanta salaries are KP, Risacher and Kennard. That is 54 mil combined. They have 5.5 mil of cushion below the tax. I guess Mavs would prefer to dump two out of Hardy, Russell or Martin and I don't think this will be a show stopper. Atlanta will either eat the tax or pay a third team to take extra salaries.

[DanSchwartzgan]

That´s how you land at the Cavs. 

It’s an interesting theory then.  I still don’t care anything about having the 15th/16th pick in 2026.  To me, it is about the upside of the pick whenever it is.  I don’t expect Cleveland to land in the lottery, but you make a good point that Cleveland is a Mitchell injury away from having a chance of being in the lottery.

[KillerLeft]

I don't understand why a lot of people here think that Atlanta would do an all-in move for AD and rather include their only true PG in the deal instead of KP. I don't see that happening. I think Atlanta salaries are KP, Risacher and Kennard. That is 54 mil combined. They have 5.5 mil of cushion below the tax. I guess Mavs would prefer to dump two out of Hardy, Russell or Martin and I don't think this will be a show stopper. Atlanta will either eat the tax or pay a third team to take extra salaries.

Because A) they have seemed like they're done with Trae Young for the better part of the last two years, and it even seemed like they made a serious effort to move him this summer and B) because of the major financial implications involved. It seems like tax isn't an option for that team. 

A + B makes it pretty clear for me (provided both things are true, of course). Kind of seems like being the last team holding that Porzingis $30 million expiring contract might be part of the draw.