MAVS NEWS:

[DallasMaverick]

I mean, we weren’t building around an 18 year old back then, and that team was coming off a title.

Chandler was an aging but key piece of a championship team that was about to become significantly more expensive. His career had also been marked by lots of injuries.

Donnie and Mark’s assessment was that he was risky and overpriced, and that re-signing him would limit their roster-building flexibility for several years.

There are those on this board (not including me) who would argue that the team was talented enough to repeat as champions, if they had only re-signed their existing players.

It’s really hard to guess right. And it’s really hard to win a championship.

[mvossman]

This is going back some but this situation could be closer to Tim Duncan than a Lebron. Those guys teams were terrible while Duncan had a hof vet/coach to play with in a good situation.

This is probably the closest you can get to what the hope would be.  But that team had Robinson, Johnson and Eliot playing together for years making several playoff runs.  Duncan was basically the final piece.  As good as Flagg has been, Duncan had an even bigger impact his rookie year (5th in MVP) probably at least partially due to being 21.  By the time Flagg is 22 like Duncan, AD will be 36 and Kyrie 37.  Its hard to see those guys being what they would need to be at that age.

[mvossman]

Chandler was an aging but key piece of a championship team that was about to become significantly more expensive. His career had also been marked by lots of injuries.

Donnie and Mark’s assessment was that he was risky and overpriced, and that re-signing him would limit their roster-building flexibility for several years.

There are those on this board (not including me) who would argue that the team was talented enough to repeat as champions, if they had only re-signed their existing players.

It’s really hard to guess right. And it’s really hard to win a championship.

Chandler was not "aging", he was 28.  If AD was 28 these conversations would be a lot different.

[mvossman]

As always, health will be a factor. No…. It will be THE factor. Sigh.

If we are talking about running with AD/Kyrie past this season, I think age related decline could be just as big a factor.

[Smitty]

If we are talking about running with AD/Kyrie past this season, I think age related decline could be just as big a factor.

Sure. Me personally, I don’t think age is a factor this season and next. I will say that Kyrie coming off the ACL injury and not being the Kyrie we’re used to is up there as a “factor” though.

[mvossman]

Sure. Me personally, I don’t think age is a factor this season and next. I will say that Kyrie coming off the ACL injury and not being the Kyrie we’re used to is up there as a “factor” though.

I don't know.  Kyrie will turn 35 next season and if you look at the history of big men AD size, a lot of them fall off a cliff in their early 30s.

[Smitty]

I don't know.  Kyrie will turn 35 next season and if you look at the history of big men AD size, a lot of them fall off a cliff in their early 30s.

I’ve seen nothing that makes me think age has slowed down either. Sure, it’s possible that they fall off a cliff at any moment. Davis still looks like one of the best players in the league right now and the last time I saw Kyrie on the court he looked like one of the best players in the NBA also.

[KillerLeft]

I don't know.  Kyrie will turn 35 next season and if you look at the history of big men AD size, a lot of them fall off a cliff in their early 30s.

That's a reality, sure, but isn't the point. 

There's another reality to face, possibly, and that's the idea that through a combination of high salary, age and injury concerns, the situation the Mavs can construct by trading one or both of them might be less likely to yield any sort of success over the next few years, not more. We won't know until we know. Meanwhile, Flagg, AD and Kyrie ARE a talented trio, to say the least, and their games seem to fit together (in theory with Kyrie, so far) in a way I'm not sure we've ever experienced as Mavs fans. 

Thought experiment: Forget Flagg is a rookie, and pretend AD and Kyrie have played here for their entire careers. I really think emotional connection (or lack thereof) is playing a part in our collective opinion about this. 

The Mavs aren't getting their picks back. Period. The picks they'd get by trading those guys are pretty unlikely to be good enough picks to move the needle. If they go the "get younger players for them" route, they won't get younger players who are as good, and probably won't even improve over those specific guys in terms of fit. We don't know that, either, for sure, but I have trouble seeing it based on the rumors that we're getting. Meanwhile, I CAN envision the Mavs being an actual good team over these next couple of seasons if they make the right moves around the margins (I think this is the part the sides are missing each other with, discussion wise). To my knowledge, nobody is suggesting moving future assets to win now - just some small fringe moves, player for player, to play to the new reality of strengths/weaknesses that trio presents, rather than what a Luka team needed. That, to me, is seeming more and more like the "best" (not ideal, but maybe best) way to navigate the next several years when building from scratch simply is not a viable option. 

And, to be fair, if our fears of what is possible in a Davis or a Kyrie trade are unfounded, and someone makes an offer that gives a lifeline to a different reality, I think we'd all consider it. 

I'm just trying to keep an open heart/mind at this point, because I do think there's a possibility that the Flagg/AD/Kyrie trio can give us more reason to follow this team for the next few years than any other possible path. I don't KNOW it, but I can allow for the possibility in my thinking, and I do KNOW, based on how quickly Flagg is improving, that it's possible they're a top 4-6 team in the West next season. That's a pretty high bar to clear in terms of choosing a different outcome. If they can't start over, anyway, and they 100% cannot, why not play it out until the draft capital reaches a more reasonably workable situation through the passage of time?

[windjc]

So let’s not try to win with talent that we have because of “enter Mark Cuban-like excuse about money/age” and hope we can get lucky and get extra picks when we don’t even have a GM. Sounds like a great idea. Cuban can then trade our picks for journey men. Like he has traditionally.

Cuban is a historically terrible owner. Despite Nico debacle we don’t know what kind of new owner we have yet. But we already traded away generational talent. Let’s keep what we have and go try to win a championship.

[KillerLeft]

I’ve seen nothing that makes me think age has slowed down either. Sure, it’s possible that they fall off a cliff at any moment. Davis still looks like one of the best players in the league right now and the last time I saw Kyrie on the court he looked like one of the best players in the NBA also.

I don't feel confident in predicting which way this will go, but...if the rumored market for Davis are even close to accurate, and the rumored potential offers are really what we can expect, I do feel confident in saying that they offer less value than he does now and next season on the court. That's the bottom line for me. For that to change, he'd have to decline or the offers would have to improve. Until one of those things happen, I'll continue to hope the trio can accomplish more on the court than the consensus here expects, and I think we're seeing signs of that hope having merit.

[windjc]

I don't feel confident in predicting which way this will go, but...if the rumored market for Davis are even close to accurate, and the rumored potential offers are really what we can expect, I do feel confident in saying that they offer less value than he does now and next season on the court. That's the bottom line for me. For that to change, he'd have to decline or the offers would have to improve. Until one of those things happen, I'll continue to hope the trio can accomplish more on the court than the consensus here expects, and I think we're seeing signs of that hope having merit.

The consensus on here doesn’t even realize that Flagg is tracking to be a better player than Luka. 

Luka may be the greatest offensive force since Chamberlain. But he makes an offense inflexible. And he is a defensive liability. And unlike Dirk he is not a quiet leader that can lead a bunch of misfits to a title. 

Flagg is tracking closer to LeBron without the mega-ego. Flagg is like LeBron with a Dirk-like attitude plus a little more swag.

[Smitty]

The consensus on here doesn’t even realize that Flagg is tracking to be a better player than Luka. 

Luka may be the greatest offensive force since Chamberlain. But he makes an offense inflexible. And he is a defensive liability. And unlike Dirk he is not a quiet leader that can lead a bunch of misfits to a title. 

Flagg is tracking closer to LeBron without the mega-ego.

I don’t know that I’m ready to go there, yet. Putting him in LeBron conversations is something I’d personally take extra care with. Comparing him to Luka is just silly all together. There is nothing about their games that are remotely the same… but I understand why Mavs fans will want to compare the two.

I will say that I thoroughly enjoy watching Cooper play basketball. I think it will take time for the more casual Mavs fans to get attached because he’s not the flashy offensive player we’re used to. Elite defense is less sexy.

I do agree with your overall point that no one should be putting a cap on his potential. He’s already ahead of what I thought he’d be at this point in his career and it seems that he’s the type that will tirelessly work on his craft.

[mvossman]

I’ve seen nothing that makes me think age has slowed down either. Sure, it’s possible that they fall off a cliff at any moment. Davis still looks like one of the best players in the league right now and the last time I saw Kyrie on the court he looked like one of the best players in the NBA also.

There are definitely some signs with Davis.  He is not playing near his peak.  He is averaging 5 points less a game than he has over the last several years and his efficiency is down as well.  It could be that he started the season out of shape or that he is still trying to jell with this team, but it could also be that he has lost a step.  He definitely doesn't look like someone I would ever want to play at the 4.

[KillerLeft]

I don’t know that I’m ready to go there, yet. Putting him in LeBron conversations is something I’d personally take extra care with. Comparing him to Luka is just silly all together. There is nothing about their games that are remotely the same… but I understand why Mavs fans will want to compare the two.

I will say that I thoroughly enjoy watching Cooper play basketball. I think it will take time for the more casual Mavs fans to get attached because he’s not the flashy offensive player we’re used to. Elite defense is less sexy.

I do agree with your overall point that no one should be putting a cap on his potential. He’s already ahead of what I thought he’d be at this point in his career and it seems that he’s the type that will tirelessly work on his craft.

I agree with this, overall, but I've actually wondered about the "casual fans" point you made. Part of me thinks the athletic component of Flagg's game (reminds me a little of young Blake Griffin at times with the dunking) might be MORE flashy for that type, not less. My father, for example, follows the team, but doesn't have nearly as nuanced an understanding of the sport as I do, let alone league politics, cap rules, long term roster building, etc. I can tell you he's already a much bigger believer in Flagg than he ever was in Luka. For that type of fan, at least some of them, the whiny stuff from Luka...the lack of defensive effort at times...even the step back threes that didn't go in, believe it or not...idk, I think a pretty significant sect of that type of fan didn't buy into Luka as much as we did. Meanwhile, Flagg is driving the lane for monster dunks on a nightly basis, blocking shots, etc. It's easier to SEE his impact on the game at times, especially relative to some of Luka's bad shooting nights. I just don't think every fan appreciated the "manipulate the entire defense" part of Luka's bag as much as we hardcore fans could. 

Just a theory.

[Winter]

Flagg's 3-point shooting seems like something that will click eventually. He shoots FTs at 80% and has a sharp mid-range jump shot. There's no reason he can't find the right switch to get running at league average.

Once that part of his game materializes, 25-30 ppg will likely be his average. Combined with his athleticism and other tools, it's hard to imagine him not being a perennial all-star.

[windjc]

I agree with this, overall, but I've actually wondered about the "casual fans" point you made. Part of me thinks the athletic component of Flagg's game (reminds me a little of young Blake Griffin at times with the dunking) might be MORE flashy for that type, not less. My father, for example, follows the team, but doesn't have nearly as nuanced an understanding of the sport as I do, let alone league politics, cap rules, long term roster building, etc. I can tell you he's already a much bigger believer in Flagg than he ever was in Luka. For that type of fan, at least some of them, the whiny stuff from Luka...the lack of defensive effort at times...even the step back threes that didn't go in, believe it or not...idk, I think a pretty significant sect of that type of fan didn't buy into Luka as much as we did. Meanwhile, Flagg is driving the lane for monster dunks on a nightly basis, blocking shots, etc. It's easier to SEE his impact on the game at times, especially relative to some of Luka's bad shooting nights. I just don't think every fan appreciated the "manipulate the entire defense" part of Luka's bag as much as we hardcore fans could. 

Just a theory.

As a fan I want Championship rings. Watching Luka, other than the one incredible finals run, it just never seemed like a formula that would win. Similar to the Nash Suns teams. Incredible flash, no resilience. 

Luka is one of the most amazing players who will ever play. Ever. 

But give me Tim Duncan every day of the week. That's the kind of all-around player Flagg is. People don't understand how good he is. I can tell because people say things like "he's better than I thought he'd be at this point."

No, he is incredibly good. One of the top 3 18 years old in basketball history.

[mvossman]

I don't feel confident in predicting which way this will go, but...if the rumored market for Davis are even close to accurate, and the rumored potential offers are really what we can expect, I do feel confident in saying that they offer less value than he does now and next season on the court. That's the bottom line for me. For that to change, he'd have to decline or the offers would have to improve. Until one of those things happen, I'll continue to hope the trio can accomplish more on the court than the consensus here expects, and I think we're seeing signs of that hope having merit.

I mean the reason you trade AD is not to be better in the next two years.  Its to be better in year 3 and beyond.  I'm willing to trade a couple of playoff series wins over the next two seasons if it starts the contention window a year or two earlier.  But in order for that to be the case, it has to be a legit trade return.  I have never advocated for trading AD for whatever you can get.  I would not take any of those crappy ESPN deals.  But if you can get a reasonable haul for him (like one of the Ringer deals) I think they should pull the trigger.

[mvossman]

Flagg's 3-point shooting seems like something that will click eventually. He shoots FTs at 80% and has a sharp mid-range jump shot. There's no reason he can't find the right switch to get running at league average.

Once that part of his game materializes, 25-30 ppg will likely be his average. Combined with his athleticism and other tools, it's hard to imagine him not being a perennial all-star.

I wonder if some of his issues with his three point shooting is the thumb injury.

[KillerLeft]

I mean the reason you trade AD is not to be better in the next two years.  Its to be better in year 3 and beyond.  I'm willing to trade a couple of playoff series wins over the next two seasons if it starts the contention window a year or two earlier.  But in order for that to be the case, it has to be a legit trade return.  I have never advocated for trading AD for whatever you can get.  I would not take any of those crappy ESPN deals.  But if you can get a reasonable haul for him (like one of the Ringer deals) I think they should pull the trigger.

Bingo. You've identified the right trade off, it's just that I don't know that I feel confident that mission will be accomplished. 

In fact, I believe I've reached a point where I think it's MORE likely that "a couple of playoff series wins" might be bested on the current course than "starting the contention window a year or two earlier" will actually happen via the other route. That's my thinking at the moment, anyway. I'd at least like to see all three of the guys together for 20 games before I DECIDE they can't contend next season.

Either way, there isn't a "right" way to do this until around 2030, sadly. That's how I feel, anyway, based on currently available information.

[windjc]

Flagg's 3-point shooting seems like something that will click eventually. He shoots FTs at 80% and has a sharp mid-range jump shot. There's no reason he can't find the right switch to get running at league average.

Once that part of his game materializes, 25-30 ppg will likely be his average. Combined with his athleticism and other tools, it's hard to imagine him not being a perennial all-star.

Once he starts shooting 38%+ from 3 he will average 28-32 with 8-10 rebounds and 6-10 assists per. He offensive stats will be within 15% of Luka's prime averages, but his defense will change games. 

He will be All-NBA.