MAVS NEWS:

[Chicagojk]

With the Kyrie resign Dallas has the tax level MLE and can also aggregate salaries for a trade. Which of these two do you think are more important to the team?

[DanSchwartzgan]

With the Kyrie resign Dallas has the tax level MLE and can also aggregate salaries for a trade.  Which of these two do you think are more important to the team?

Nothing is off the table.  Every thing we've talked about...trade for picks, trade for players (big ones like Jrue and small ones like Lonzo) are still on the table.  The math works out that not trading anyone and just signing someone to the Taxpayer MLE appears to fit.  But, it was always going to be that way if Kyrie did what so many expected.  The position we are in means we aren't dependent upon the kindness of another team to fill the roster.  We are dependent on a free agent to take our money, but that shouldn't be too hard.

To answer your question, I hope it is the latter.  I'm not infatuated with any of the FA guards out there.  The roster is unbalanced and signing a single fill-in guard doesn't do it for me.  I hope our financial position lets us negotiate out of strength.  

The news about Kai Jones is encouraging.  I like his upside if his head is right.  It means something else may happen.  Maybe a two for one?  Since we have to send more than we take back, a two for one requires that we send $2.3mm more than we take back so that we can fill the open slot (presumably with Jones).  It has been reported that we want to get into the draft again. Maybe its a three for one with a player and a pick coming back (and Jones to fill the last spot created by the imbalanced trade).  I can even see scenarios where we get under the first apron.

Like I said, nothing we've talked about is off the table in terms of concept.  Gafford to Atlanta for 11 is gone, but even a Jrue trade is still possible.

[Chicagojk]

Nothing is off the table.  Every thing we've talked about...trade for picks, trade for players (big ones like Jrue and small ones like Lonzo) are still on the table.  The math works out that not trading anyone and just signing someone to the Taxpayer MLE appears to fit.  But, it was always going to be that way if Kyrie did what so many expected.  The position we are in means we aren't dependent upon the kindness of another team to fill the roster.  We are dependent on a free agent to take our money, but that shouldn't be too hard.

To answer your question, I hope it is the latter.  I'm not infatuated with any of the FA guards out there.  The roster is unbalanced and signing a single fill-in guard doesn't do it for me.  I hope our financial position lets us negotiate out of strength.  

The news about Kai Jones is encouraging.  I like his upside if his head is right.  It means something else may happen.  Maybe a two for one?  Since we have to send more than we take back, a two for one requires that we send $2.3mm more than we take back so that we can fill the open slot (presumably with Jones).  It has been reported that we want to get into the draft again. Maybe its a three for one with a player and a pick coming back (and Jones to fill the last spot created by the imbalanced trade).  I can even see scenarios where we get under the first apron.

Like I said, nothing we've talked about is off the table in terms of concept.  Gafford to Atlanta for 11 is gone, but even a Jrue trade is still possible.

As far as a trade, I have difficultly to believe we can get a late first.  There was a rumor that Martin could attract a late first.  I have difficulty believing that.  On a different note, he is sort of the odd man out right?   I think, if healthy, his skill could be used, but there are just too many bodies it appears.   

Powell has 4 million left and Omax has a year left.  Could you trade both for someone who has two years left on his contract?   It is not much, but maybe one of the bottom teams just wants to clear a few more million for next year?  Is that possible?  Omax is still hurt, so he can't play yet.   

Hardy could be an option as well.  6 million for two years is not ideal though.

[Smitty]

I did a quick comparison of the FA point guards mentioned. I added Tyus Jones myself. The Per 36 numbers for each player from last season. 
I didn't dig deep or try to manipulate the numbers by pulling averages over the last 2-3 seasons or whatever. Just black and white numbers from the most recent season for comparisons sake. Anything stand out or concern you more than others?

   

[Winter]

All sort of stats here may be one-offs.

Chris Paul played 82 games. Do we think that will happen again?
Malcolm Brogden had his worse season ever (by far) but it was with the Wizards and recovering from injury

Tyus Jones and Schroeder are probably the most reliable projections statistically (although Tyus Jones defensive rating went way down in Phoenix)

Also:

"The Kings are viewed as a leading suitor for free agent point guard Dennis Schröder, according to league sources who have spoken to Jake Fischer of The Stein Line (Substack link)."

[Smitty]

All sort of stats here may be one-offs.

Chris Paul played 82 games. Do we think that will happen again?
Malcolm Brogden had his worse season ever (by far) but it was with the Wizards and recovering from injury

Tyus Jones and Schroeder are probably the most reliable projections statistically (although Tyus Jones defensive rating went way down in Phoenix)

Also:

"The Kings are viewed as a leading suitor for free agent point guard Dennis Schröder, according to league sources who have spoken to Jake Fischer of The Stein Line (Substack link)."

I'd argue that Jones, Russell, and Brogdon all had the worst season of their careers. Still, some of what they can provide would be a fit here. The highest upside move in my opinion would be Russell. If he can get back to what he was doing a year ago, while buying in on defense, he could change his public perception in a big way.

Next for me would be Jones. He was a terrible fit in Pheonix. I think he'd fit like a glove here. I think he's a minimum guy again with another prove it year ahead of him. He can shoot the 3 ball and is a Duke guy, so...

The safest bet is CP3, although I don't expect him to play 82 games again.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I did a quick comparison of the FA point guards mentioned. I added Tyus Jones myself. The Per 36 numbers for each player from last season. 
I didn't dig deep or try to manipulate the numbers by pulling averages over the last 2-3 seasons or whatever. Just black and white numbers from the most recent season for comparisons sake. Anything stand out or concern you more than others?

Thanks for the graph.  Any chance you could add BWill and Exum for comparison?  Lonzo?

[Smitty]

Thanks for the graph.  Any chance you could add BWill and Exum for comparison?  Lonzo?

   

[F Gump]

1  A potential trade of Hardy, Powell, Martin gets you to Sexton.

2  Also we can just trade a future 1st, if we really like a guard in this draft. What good will the Lakers 2029 pick be, if ...

1 The Mavs have apparently decided (and rightly so, imo) that the hit to their limited payroll for filling the role of temp PG starter needs to be 6M, not 20M. Personally, I believe they will get just as much utility from the 6M guy, but in any event, that's what's in their budget. You only have so much payroll to go around.

2 In this draft, there are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more efficient ways to get a back of the 1st pick instead of wasting the LAL pick. They will be for sale and it should be a buyer's market, because multiple teams have more of them than they really want. IF the Mavs really want one, that is. (I'm guessing they might trade Martin to someone for a FRP.)

[Mavs2021]

1 The Mavs have apparently decided (and rightly so, imo) that the hit to their limited payroll for filling the role of temp PG starter needs to be 6M, not 20M. Personally, I believe they will get just as much utility from the 6M guy, but in any event, that's what's in their budget. You only have so much payroll to go around.

2 In this draft, there are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more efficient ways to get a back of the 1st pick instead of wasting the LAL pick. They will be for sale and it should be a buyer's market, because multiple teams have more of them than they really want. IF the Mavs really want one, that is. (I'm guessing they might trade Martin to someone for a FRP.)

1. I believe they want Sexton for Powell + Hardy + Martin, the T-MLE and maybe an additional late 1st. 

I´m sure there are ways to do this trade and retain the T-MLE by correct sequencing of the events and using only parts of the T-MLE, that`I´m far too lazy to calculate until somebody pays me to do it.

In reality there is an overkill at forward and center. It just makes no sense to keep Powell and Martin, and even both Marshall and Klay is questionable. 

Russell/Irving/Williams
Sexton/Christie/Late 1st round pick
Flagg/Marshall/Thompson
Davis/Washington/Omax
Lively/Gafford/Jones

2. I simply used the future asset as an example for people that think it´s necessary to give up Gafford or even Washington to get the additional pick. Obviously it all depends on how high the pick, how much you rate the available talent and how much the value of the future asset. But to me keeping Washington and getting a Traore/Denim (if you believe in their high ceilings) is much more interesting than preserving that future pick, especially with the Lakers new owners and the pending Bron retirement. Lakers have only 13M in guaranteed contracts for 2027/2028. If they keep that clean, they could easily build a superteam around Luka by the time the pick converts.

[DallasMaverick]

It’s weird to feel weird about watching the front office navigate this offseason well.

Could literally just draft Flagg, sign D’Lo (not a fan but you could do a lot worse given the situation) and extend PJ to a fair but tradeable contract like Gafford and the offseason will have been solid. Was certain they’d have to trade someone for a guard but now that’s not even that necessary.

I’m right on the verge of renaming my cat from “Luka” to “Nico”.

[F Gump]

1A. I believe they want Sexton for Powell + Hardy + Martin, the T-MLE and maybe an additional late 1st. 

I´m sure there are ways to do this trade and retain the T-MLE by correct sequencing of the events and using only parts of the T-MLE, that`I´m far too lazy to calculate until somebody pays me to do it.

1B  In reality there is an overkill at forward and center. It just makes no sense to keep Powell and Martin, and even both Marshall and Klay is questionable. 

Russell/Irving/Williams
Sexton/Christie/Late 1st round pick
Flagg/Marshall/Thompson
Davis/Washington/Omax
Lively/Gafford/Jones

2. I simply used the future asset as an example for people that think it´s necessary to give up Gafford or even Washington to get the additional pick. Obviously it all depends on how high the pick, how much you rate the available talent and how much the value of the future asset. But to me keeping Washington and getting a Traore/Denim (if you believe in their high ceilings) is much more interesting than preserving that future pick, especially with the Lakers new owners and the pending Bron retirement. Lakers have only 13M in guaranteed contracts for 2027/2028. If they keep that clean, they could easily build a superteam around Luka by the time the pick converts.

1A  That scenario (adding Sexton, MLE, FRP to this year's payroll) with Martin/Powell/Hardy outgoing doesn't work financially. It could work if it's just Sexton and then fill the roster with minimums. The MLE would definitely be unavailable. The FRP is iffy because of the salary size.

1B "It just makes no sense to keep Powell and Martin " --- I don't think anyone disagrees with this. I sure don't. It's just a question of how to get them off the roster, and perhaps get something useful in return.

2 I agree LBJ will be retired, but it remains to be seen what happens after that in LA. I think that if you want to trade the pick some day, the "unprotected" part offers great value in trade, so you need to target superior value in return. Spending it on a low FRP in a crappy draft would be a major blunder.

[FireNicoHarrison]

I’m right on the verge of renaming my cat from “Luka” to “Nico”.

Yes please, maybe he will be gifted to the Lakers next month!!!!

[Smitty]

Nothing is off the table.  Every thing we've talked about...trade for picks, trade for players (big ones like Jrue and small ones like Lonzo) are still on the table.  The math works out that not trading anyone and just signing someone to the Taxpayer MLE appears to fit.  But, it was always going to be that way if Kyrie did what so many expected.  The position we are in means we aren't dependent upon the kindness of another team to fill the roster.  We are dependent on a free agent to take our money, but that shouldn't be too hard.

To answer your question, I hope it is the latter.  I'm not infatuated with any of the FA guards out there.  The roster is unbalanced and signing a single fill-in guard doesn't do it for me.  I hope our financial position lets us negotiate out of strength.  

The news about Kai Jones is encouraging.  I like his upside if his head is right.  It means something else may happen.  Maybe a two for one?  Since we have to send more than we take back, a two for one requires that we send $2.3mm more than we take back so that we can fill the open slot (presumably with Jones).  It has been reported that we want to get into the draft again. Maybe its a three for one with a player and a pick coming back (and Jones to fill the last spot created by the imbalanced trade).  I can even see scenarios where we get under the first apron.

Like I said, nothing we've talked about is off the table in terms of concept.  Gafford to Atlanta for 11 is gone, but even a Jrue trade is still possible.

Working through a potential 10-man rotation if all they did was draft Flagg and add a PG for TPMLE.

Russell* 26 | Williams 22
Klay 23 | Christie 22
Flagg 30 | Naji 18
Davis 34 | PJW 25
Gafford 20 | Lively 20

DNP-CD: Hardy, Martin, OMax, Powell
Injured: Kyrie


   

[SleepingHero]

Working through a potential 10-man rotation if all they did was draft Flagg and add a PG for TPMLE.

Russell* 26 | Williams 22
Klay 23 | Christie 22
Flagg 30 | Naji 18
Davis 34 | PJW 25
Gafford 20 | Lively 20

DNP-CD: Hardy, Martin, OMax, Powell
Injured: Kyrie

As much as I enjoyed B-Will last season, I don’t think he’s ready to be the lead guard off the bench at 20+mpg for a team with championship aspirations.

I’d trust Exum more, despite the injury concerns. But seeing this, I do think we need 1 more guard in addition to the TPMLE guy.

[Smitty]

As much as I enjoyed B-Will last season, I don’t think he’s ready to be the lead guard off the bench at 20+mpg for a team with championship aspirations.

I’d trust Exum more, despite the injury concerns. But seeing this, I do think we need 1 more guard in addition to the TPMLE guy.

Well, I didn't move Flagg around too much because I didn't want to make it too complicated. He will definitely fill some PG minutes, and you can give any number of wings a bump, while decreasing Williams.

[mvossman]

I'm surprised there is not more love for Tyus Jones. He shot over 40% from 3 the last two years on decent volume and he has a crazy 5-1 assist to turnover ratio. He has been very healthy over his career and has handled significant minutes. You can't play him next to Kyrie, but he seems like the perfect tax MLE option to take Kyrie role and then seamlessly move into his backup role.

[Smitty]

I'm surprised there is not more love for Tyus Jones.  He shot over 40% from 3 the last two years on decent volume and he has a crazy 5-1 assist to turnover ratio.  He has been very healthy over his career and has handled significant minutes.  You can't play him next to Kyrie, but he seems like the perfect tax MLE option to take Kyrie role and then seamlessly move into his backup role.

I'm trying to lead the way, brother. Speaking it into existence!

[Smitty]

@TheSteinLine
More on this topic: Dallas is now regarded as a leading suitor for D'Angelo Russell, sources tell
@TheSteinLine
.

The Mavs can make a free agent run at Russell because Kyrie Irving's new deal has a lower Year 1 salary than his $43M player option.

[Winter]

Well I guess I'd rather have Russell's contract than Jrue's.

and he you might not have to play him all that many minutes.