'25 Playoff Rotation Predictions: A Collaborative Deep Dive

[KillerLeft]

Note to KL, following up with this post ^ and re my too-binary" thinking - look at the way Kidd played it in this game they thought important...
Lively 32 Gafford 16
PJW 38 Maxi 10
Klay 20 [Naji out]
Kyrie 35 Grimes 20 (fills in some of Naji missing)
Luka 40 SD 24 (fills in some of Naji missing) Hardy 4 (fills in some of Naji missing)

IMO Kidd's way MORE binary than we tend to realize, and the mix-and-match stuff is due to the reality of injuries and matchup/foul issues in a game.

I agree with what you're saying on a surface level view of how the roster is assembled, and, by extension, how Kidd wants his "base" rotation and schemes to work, as he was undoubtedly consulted about how the roster should be put together. 

I agree that some of his deviation from that (which has been frequent, not only this season, but in previous ones) can be linked directly to the lack of availability of some choices due to injury. I'm even comfortable with the opinion, regardless of whether or not I share it, that the word "some" should really be "most" in my previous sentence. 

But, I also feel like a lot of these choices are based on playing style matchups, talent matchups and good old "they're beating us when we try this" factors. Any NBA coach knows that sometimes plan A just doesn't work. We've seen Kidd throw stuff at the wall in the past during such situations, especially in last year's playoffs. When I see that A) the roster seems to include several players with great versatility in terms of both skillset and position, and B) we've seen already, in just 20ish games, a great deal of experimentation with those combinations, my sense (or hope, at least) is that there was intent there. That giving him options was part of the off-season thinking. In other words, my hope is that they (Kidd and Harrison) learned from what beat them last season and have baked some choices into the cake for challenging contingencies. The ability to play smaller (and therefore quicker, faster and much more skilled) is just one of the choices I have in mind.

For example, even the changes to the offensive system have multiple disguised benefits. Yes, filling the rotation up with nothing but players who can shoot, floor the ball to attack closeouts, pass off the dribble and even get shots off at the middle level (which describes literally everyone in the current rotation except the centers, both of whom roll hard and have expanded their responsibilities as well) can be seen as a simple upgrade of the talent, but it's not lost on me that it also serves to lessen the diversity of responsibility within the system from position to position, making new combinations of players even easier to find. 

Basically, they can play based on defensive matchups more than they could last year, because the offense is more able to flow this way (in theory). They can put out entire lineups based on switching (which I saw the other day is a drastically increased defensive strategy for them so far this season). I could go on and on, but my read on the changes made this off-season are about versatility, not strict categorization. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the course of a season with a wide variety of challenges, for sure.

[michaeltex]

FWIW, I would not place any faith that Exum will be a reliable contributor in the playoffs. Based on long injury recovery time this season and how he was pretty much a non-factor after returning and in the post season. Unless Kidd makes a special effort to give him minutes and boost his confidence, which then takes away from someone already contributing, he's a break-glass-for-emergency kit. He's waaay down in the pecking order.

I'm starting to feel that way about Hardy, but I keep hoping the switch will flip with him.

[F Gump]

It was interesting to me that in the Portland game Billups went small and Kidd matched him small with Maxi in the middle. Waited a long time to go back to Gaff.

It's observations like this ^ that confuse the understanding of Kidd's preferences, because it omits a key part of the context.

In that game, Lively was injured and did not play. Neither did Naji. Nor Klay. So the lineup was a scramble as others had to fill in those C and SF minutes.

For that reason, Kidd used Kleber as a backup at C and SF as well as PF. Without wading through pbp, probably ...
Gafford 27 Powell 15 Maxi 6
PJW 37 Maxi 11
Grimes 36 Maxi 10 OMax 3

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

It's observations like this ^ that confuse the understanding of Kidd's preferences, because it omits a key part of the context.

In that game, Lively was injured and did not play. Neither did Naji. Nor Klay. So the lineup was a scramble as others had to fill in those C and SF minutes.

For that reason, Kidd used Kleber as a backup at C and SF as well as PF. Without wading through pbp, probably ...
Gafford 27 Powell 15 Maxi 6
PJW 37 Maxi 11
Grimes 36 Maxi 10 OMax 3

Oh yeah I know. Lively being out was definitely a part of it. I just was just observing that Kidd stayed with Maxi even longer than expected if I’m remembering it right. Gafford wasn’t in foul trouble. It was something I noticed at the time but was watching the game on delay so didn’t post. 
It seems like  Kidd’s preference is to always have one big. But he played a ton of small ball with Maxi next to PJ in the playoffs and in their run up. It reminded me of that— him prioritising defensively versatility above all else to close games. I think Lively being even more up to speed defensively may change that equation sooner than later. The wild card being Lively’s free throw shooting. The other variable is now you can play Lively as the one “non-shooter” with DJJ replaced at the end of games with Naji/Grimes/Klay. But 5 Out WITH rim protection remains the platonic ideal.

[The Jom]

Also interesting to me that Spencer closed last night. He was playing well, of course. But also, having 3 point guards out there against Memphis’s overplaying defensive pressure was huge. Perhaps Naji would’ve gotten those minutes had he been available. But I dunno.

[michaeltex]

 The other variable is now you can play Lively as the one “non-shooter” with DJJ replaced at the end of games with Naji/Grimes/Klay. But 5 Out WITH rim protection remains the platonic ideal.

Which brings to mind Lively's reported skill at distance shooting. I know he said he wants to continue to focus on becoming even better as a post player, but I wonder if having him selectively demonstrate his shooting skills during the season would make defenses respect any move he made outside and open up the paint for some Luka/Kyrie magic.

Just a thought.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Also interesting to me that Spencer closed last night. He was playing well, of course. But also, having 3 point guards out there against Memphis’s overplaying defensive pressure was huge. Perhaps Naji would’ve gotten those minutes had he been available. But I dunno.

I think that's the case.  Naji would have gotten those minutes.

[Smitty]

It's observations like this ^ that confuse the understanding of Kidd's preferences, because it omits a key part of the context.

In that game, Lively was injured and did not play. Neither did Naji. Nor Klay. So the lineup was a scramble as others had to fill in those C and SF minutes.

For that reason, Kidd used Kleber as a backup at C and SF as well as PF. Without wading through pbp, probably ...
Gafford 27 Powell 15 Maxi 6
PJW 37 Maxi 11
Grimes 36 Maxi 10 OMax 3

And that is the perfect role for Maxi. 3rd Center that plays with injuries to the top 2 or when Kidd goes to a 5-out lineup. And backup 4 when Naji is out. In this case he filled both roles with Lively and Naji out, which is why he played 27 minutes. I'll be interested to see what it looks like with the top 10 healthy.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

And that is the perfect role for Maxi. 3rd Center that plays with injuries to the top 2 or when Kidd goes to a 5-out lineup. And backup 4 when Naji is out. In this case he filled both roles with Lively and Naji out, which is why he played 27 minutes. I'll be interested to see what it looks like with the top 10 healthy.

Maxi has no role when he's injured, which is all the time.

[F Gump]

And that is the perfect role for Maxi. 3rd Center that plays with injuries to the top 2 or when Kidd goes to a 5-out lineup. And backup 4 when Naji is out. In this case he filled both roles with Lively and Naji out, which is why he played 27 minutes. I'll be interested to see what it looks like with the top 10 healthy.

It's fairly simple. The C/F depth chart (and rotation) looks like this and Kidd is quite consistent in playing it this way when everyone is healthy:

C - Lively, Gafford
PF - PJW, Maxi
SF - Klay, Naji

As for Kidd using Maxi at C with PJW, I think that's way more likely when Lively or Gafford are injured.

As the backup 4, Maxi only gets minutes when PJW is out, and PJW plays a lot (averaging 33, but lately in the 35-40 range), which leaves 8-13 for Maxi at PF if everyone is healthy. Unfortunately, "when everyone is healthy" hasn't been very common, and then lots more position flex has to be used. But as long as Maxi and PJW are healthy, we aren't seeing Naji at the 4, because Kidd thinks that makes them too small (making them poor on defense and rebounding).

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I guess I'm stumped as to why anyone would rely on Maxi to be healthy. It's like plumbing. It doesn't get better over time.

[Smitty]

But as long as Maxi and PJW are healthy, we aren't seeing Naji at the 4, because Kidd thinks that makes them too small (making them poor on defense and rebounding).

Naji has played the 4 plenty this year. Not only by memory, but a quick search on basketball reference shows Naji breakdown as 45% SF and 53% PF. The idea that Kidd doesn't play Maxi at the 5 is wrong also. Last year he played 27% PF and 73% C.

With everyone healthy, the clear path to get your best players on the floor is playing Naji and/or Luka at the 4 when PJ takes a break, even Klay can slide down (11% at PF this year). The recent play of Dinwiddie, Grimes and Naji will dictate such.

The 10th man will either be Hardy or Maxi depending on matchups. The great thing Kidd has at his disposal is the flexibility of lineup construction that maybe you don't see.

Luka 1-4
Kyrie 1-2
Klay 2-4
PJW 3-5
Lively

Dinwiddie 1-3
Grimes 2-3
Naji 1-4
Gafford

Hardy 1-2
Maxi 4-5

[F Gump]

Naji has played the 4 plenty this year. Not only by memory, but a quick search on basketball reference shows Naji breakdown as 45% SF and 53% PF.

C'mon, you're being deliberately obtuse. That's non-responsive. (You ripped my words out of context that Naji wasn't playing the 4 from the obvious and explicit qualifier that said "as long as Maxi and PJW are healthy.") Now overlay the search with the parameter "when the Mavs Cs and PFs are healthy." Or listen to Kidd talk about his lineups when they are short-handed and Naji has to play minutes at the 4. Or take the time to look at recent box scores when they have had a full complement of 4s and 5s.

I have not said Naji hasn't played at the 4. He has, but not instead of Maxi, but rather when Maxi is not available for some reason (whether injured, or filling in elsewhere because a different 4 or 5 is out). Naji has been their 3rd string PF and used accordingly. 

In addition, be careful of the B-R "position minutes" stats, as they only offer a rough guesstimate. With a few tweaks for players who are missized for their usual position (such as Luka being PG at 6-7), they simply take the height of each player on the floor and allocate minutes accordingly to positions 1-5.

Kidd wants size (leading to better defense, rim protection, rebounding, etc) at both the 4 and 5. Maxi provides that, and Naji does not. It's that simple.

Naji is a splendid fellow for playing other backup roles. But he's not in the mold of what Kidd wants for his bigs (4s and 5s).

[F Gump]

And BTW, their rotation setup is not that complicated, provided the team is healthy. No need to make it harder than it is. Current starters and backups are as follows:

Lively, Gafford
PJW, Maxi
Klay, Naji
Kyrie, Grimes
Luka, SD

[Smitty]

C'mon, you're being deliberately obtuse. That's non-responsive. (You ripped my words out of context that Naji wasn't playing the 4 from the obvious and explicit qualifier that said "as long as Maxi and PJW are healthy.") Now overlay the search with the parameter "when the Mavs Cs and PFs are healthy." Or listen to Kidd talk about his lineups when they are short-handed and Naji has to play minutes at the 4. Or take the time to look at recent box scores when they have had a full complement of 4s and 5s.

I have not said Naji hasn't played at the 4. He has, but not instead of Maxi, but rather when Maxi is not available for some reason (whether injured, or filling in elsewhere because a different 4 or 5 is out). Naji has been their 3rd string PF and used accordingly. 

In addition, be careful of the B-R "position minutes" stats, as they only offer a rough guesstimate. With a few tweaks for players who are missized for their usual position (such as Luka being PG at 6-7), they simply take the height of each player on the floor and allocate minutes accordingly to positions 1-5.

Kidd wants size (leading to better defense, rim protection, rebounding, etc) at both the 4 and 5. Maxi provides that, and Naji does not. It's that simple.

Naji is a splendid fellow for playing other backup roles. But he's not in the mold of what Kidd wants for his bigs (4s and 5s).

"C'mon, you're being deliberately obtuse."

Sorry you feel that way but was not my intention. It's clear we see this subject differently, so I'll leave it alone. I appreciate and respect your opinion; I just disagree with what you think Kidd wants or what you think Kidd should/will do going forward.

[KillerLeft]

And BTW, their rotation setup is not that complicated, provided the team is healthy. No need to make it harder than it is. Current starters and backups are as follows:

Lively, Gafford
PJW, Maxi
Klay, Naji
Kyrie, Grimes
Luka, SD

That's the way it has worked lately, as in the last few games, but not the way it started, and even Dinwiddie, himself, said the other day he doesn't even know if he'll be in the rotation when everyone is back, so it must not seem so black and white to him. 

Also, I'll make any bet you or anyone else wants that there will be a shortened (fewer than 10) rotation down the stretch and in most playoff games. There is a 0% chance their plan A will be to play 10 guys. There will be important playoff games in which 10 or even 11 GET IN, sure, but that will indicate a reaction to less than favorable circumstances. The actual rotation will be down to 9, at least, if not 8.

[michaeltex]

I agree the playoff rotation gets shortened, but I feel like Kidd, with the current roster, wants to play as many regular season games as he can going deep into the bench. This is to satisfy a couple of goals:

Find out who can step in and reliably contribute with short notice, even if it's just being a pest on defense for a couple of 5-6 minute stints in a game, because you never know when you need to cover an injury, foul trouble or someone just having a bad game.

Spread out the wear and tear on key players so they don't limp in to the playoffs trying to play through nagging injuries, ala Luka last season.

Maybe even get a few switches to click on 3rd level players like OMax and Hardy to help them take the next step by giving them real game exposure.

[Smitty]

Also, I'll make any bet you or anyone else wants that there will be a shortened (fewer than 10) rotation down the stretch and in most playoff games. There is a 0% chance their plan A will be to play 10 guys. There will be important playoff games in which 10 or even 11 GET IN, sure, but that will indicate a reaction to less than favorable circumstances. The actual rotation will be down to 9, at least, if not 8.

9 is my bet. Based on the 2 Kidd playoff appearances, 9 was pretty clearly the ideal rotation. I keep saying 9-10 with the caveat that there will be times when Maxi plays over Gafford or Dinwiddie (or Exum or Hardy -- whomever wins the bench guard spot at the time). Which takes me back to the position flexibility and versatility of the roster. Players being able to slide up or down depending on who's on the court.

[KillerLeft]

9 is my bet. Based on the 2 Kidd playoff appearances, 9 was pretty clearly the ideal rotation. I keep saying 9-10 with the caveat that there will be times when Maxi plays over Gafford or Dinwiddie. Which takes me back to the position flexibility and versatility of the roster. Players being able to slide up or down depending on who's on the court.

The Kleber thing is so interesting to me. 

In a sense, I agree with Gump. I think Kidd prefers to play with a bigger center for most, if not all of the game. It obviously has much more to do with offense than defense, however, because time is starting to tell quite clearly that Gafford is detrimental to the defense - they can't even play the scheme they want when he's in there. Instead, I think it's about running the floor in offensive transition, which Gafford does almost as well as Lively (when Gafford is playing well) and rolling hard off of screens, which they also both do quite well. They're also both demonstrating that they were instructed to develop as inside scorers during the off-season when the opposition switches mismatches onto them. Kleber doesn't do ANY of that particularly well, so I get it. 

But, he's far superior to Gafford, defensively, and especially when he's the 5. In fact, while I agree with Gump that Kidd is hoping Kleber can get a lot of regular season burn as the backup 4 (and he surely has, to this point), I think it's pretty clear that he's struggling, especially on offense, and I don't think that's about how he's moving, which is better to my eye than at any point last season. Instead, I think there's correlation between playing him mostly at the 4 and the amount of wide, wide open shots he's getting. Catch and shoot is really his only utility on offense, and his 1950's style set shot has always been slow. It's a completely different beast when he's matched up with slower players. The ball finds him in much more timely ways when the opposing defense gets into rotation if there was a big on him to begin with. 

Also, it's worth noting that he (Kleber) hasn't been used as a screener, even in pick and pop, since long before Carlisle left. I'd have to check, but maybe the bubble season was the last time that was used significantly? I think this is a Luka preference more than a Carlisle or Kidd preference, which would go a long way to explaining why Porzingis never fit here. 

So, idk...it's just interesting to me. I think the best thing for Kleber and for the defense is for him to play the bulk of his minutes at the backup 5, but with what the team is trying to accomplish (Gafford being more offense than defense actually helps the bench, which has trouble scoring at times), the NEED he could potentially fill is the backup 4. He's not really durable enough (and maybe not even good enough, at this point) to justify the team trying to find a way to combine those roles totally, so what we've seen is what Kidd has chosen for him to try first this season. 

The way it's working...I have very little faith that Marshall won't eventually take that role from him in a way to keep him (Marshall) on the floor while simultaneously finding enough minutes for Grimes AND Dinwiddie (who has literally been closing games at the 3, OVER Thompson, in Marshall's absence). There's no reason to believe Marshall can't guard most 4's, and in fact, I think that might be his ideal defensive position against many teams. Kleber is usually at a physical disadvantage at the 4 that doesn't exist when he's at the 5. It's great to have him as a help side defender, but having two slow guys out there in rotation is brutal at times. Plus, the benefit to the offense with Marshall, literally able to run point from the 4, would be immeasurable, and we've already seen proof of this during this short season. What I'm hoping is that Kidd is smart enough to realize there will be times after that point that playing Kleber at the 5 will be the right choice, despite coming at the expense of Gafford's minutes some nights.

[KillerLeft]

100% agree.  That trio (Grimes, PJ, Lively) gives you three levels of excellent defense around Luka and Kyrie.  If Grimes and PJ can hit threes, the Mavs are a title contender.  

Luka, Kai, Lively, PJ, Klay, Grimes, Naji are top 7

Gafford/Kleber are the 8th in the rotation depending on matchup and Kleber's health.  If Kleber gets hurt again, you could look for help at small ball center.
Exum/Hardy are the 9th in the rotation.  If Hardy doesn't improve and/or Exum is hurt, you could look for help at backup PG.

This continues to be my favorite way of expressing things succinctly. Recently, Dinwiddie has staked a claim on that 9th spot, moving clearly ahead of Hardy, but the principle is the same, I think, and we don't know how long this stretch of good play will last for him (a long time, I hope).